Rasmussen Numbers Move Toward Bush, Zogby's Toward Kerry

[louis c]

I have been posting the Rasmussen Tracking Numbers here for about five weeks. As I have said before, I like to verify their accuracy with Zogby. Scott Rasmussen is an avid Republican, John Zogby is a Democrat. Both use similar methodology in compiling their data. Zogby was more accurate in 2000, because he properly weighted his numbers. Rasmussen didn't, but admitted his mistake, and has said it is corrected.

Today, 10/9, Rasmussen has Bush with 49.6% and Kerry with 45.9%. This is 2 point Bush gain from yesterday in his 3 day national tracking poll.

In his 7 day rolling averages of 5 key battleground states he has:

Florida, Bush 51%-45% (This is unchanged from yesterday)

Michigan, Kerry 50%-47% (This is a 1 point Bush gain from yesterday)

Minnesota, Tie 46% (This is a 2 point Bush lead from yesterday)

Ohio, Bush 49%-47% (This is a 1 point Kerry gain from yesterday)

Pennsylvania, Kerry 48%-47% (This is a 1 point Bush gain from yesterday)

http://www.rasmussenreports.com

Now, my comparison with Zogby. John Zogby's 3 day national tracking poll has Kerry at 46% to Bush 45%. This is a 2 point Kerry gain from yesterday. The days that are tracked are identical to Rasmussen.

As far as battleground states go, Zogby gives Kerry a lead in Electoral Votes of 278 to Bush's 207, with Florida, Ohio, and Arkansas to close to call.

http://www.zogby.com/

Now we can see that each has a bias, but only one is correct. I sure like it better when they both agree, and Kerry is ahead. However, we can only read what they write, and make our own decision.

[unfrigginreal]

1. Thanks for doing this.

I always check out your posts.

WaPo tracking shows a 1 point gain for Bush today also. I really don't get it. These numbers are all predebate and the news all week has not been favorable to Bush - WMD report and Bremer admission. The only event that I think may have pushed some people toward Bush would have been the Egypt attacks. Bush will start next week with favorable news with the Afghan elections so I'm hoping for another great debate showing from Kerry.

[DarthDem]

2. Did You Pay for Zogby?

Curious how you know the EV breakdown . . . I'm tiring of Raz's too-static numbers. The Florida results, in particular, are just silly.

[louis c]

7. No,

It's on his site's home page.

I wish I could afford both, but his home page will link you to his total, with some other info.


You see, I follow Rasmussen because it's cheaper, but a;ways back it up with the free stuff on Zogby.

Now, they seem to be moving in opposite directions, even if it is slightly.

[DaveinMD]

3. Zogby

is much more nonpartisan. He did work for Al D'Amato in New York.

[MidwestTransplant]

4. I guess Rasmussen is looking to repeat his performance from 2000

[Fluffdaddy]

5. And that was ?

[unfrigginreal]

6. He blew it by 9 points

[WI_DEM]

8. the interesting thing is that when other polls like Gallup had Kerry

unrealistically behind, Rasmussen had the race in a virtual deadheat. And now, for some reason, where other polls are showing a tight race, Ras is showing an expanding Bush lead!!

[Moonbeam_Starlight]

9. Doesn't matter

like a very good article said about a week ago (it was written for the American Prospect) the fact that bush isn't polling beyond 49% in any poll means he's toast, people. That's his CEILING. Kerry's polling figures are his FLOOR.

That is from historical models. The incumbent only goes up a percentage point or two at the MOST from that they poll to the actual numbers on election day. The challenger, however, goes up much more than that.

bush is done.

[TruthIsAll]

10. Bush's real ceiling is 47%.

Check out the election model:

1) average of 9 independent national polls
2) average of 18 corp. and independent polls
3) Weighted-average state polls national equivalent

......Nat9 Nat18 State
Kerry 46.33 46.83 48.18
Bush 46.67 46.94 46.66

http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/

[Moonbeam_Starlight]

11. Oh wow

you always make me want to cheer. So that is averaged from how many polls? 28 total factors???

Wow. He's doing worse than I THOUGHT. Using that SAME criteria, how does Kerry come out? About 49-49%? If so, that's his floor.

I am not thinking any longer that this will be a blowout, but I still see Kerry winning this and not by a hair.