Bush's incredible shrinking lead

[struggle4progress]

THE ARMCHAIR STRATEGIST
By Dan Payne
October 9, 2004

NATIONAL POLLS show presidential race unchanged. But state polls tell another story.

Very red states. On Los Angeles Times interactive map ( www.latimes.com ), red (Republican) states are really red. George Bush way ahead in 21; average margin: 22 points. He's got 40-point cushion in Utah. (Must've been that Mitt Romney speech at RNC.) Bush has 177 electoral votes, with 270 needed for victory.

John Kerry's big blue states are California, Illinois, and New York, plus eight others in Northeast, good That's 153 electoral votes.

Upswing in swing states. Kerry has to win every tossup state that Al Gore carried four years ago. Kerry's moving up in all of them. In Washington, Kerry's up by 10 points; Oregon, up 10; New Mexico, up 3-11; Minnesota, up 8; Michigan, up 10; New Jersey, up 3-8; Iowa up 7; Wisconsin, up 2 1/2; and Pennsylvania, up by 5-7. If Kerry runs the table on these, he'll have 255 electoral votes. To get to 270, he needs to pocket Ohio (20). <more>

http://www.boston.com/news/globe/editorial_opinion/oped/articles/2004/10/09/bushs_incredible_shrinking_lead/

[Cha]

1. Funny..cnn has bush ahead in

the electoral college.

[The Velveteen Ocelot]

2. Well, yes.

They would, wouldn't they? They probably get their numbers from Gallup.

[On the Road]

3. Yes! That Means Kerry Does NOT Need Florda AND Ohio

I'm particularly worried about Florida for obvious reasons, but it may not make any difference.

[DaveinMD]

4. we need

one of the two.

[Jasper 91]

5. It's a good job we don't need both

Not because there aren't more people wanting to vote for Kerry , but because of Jeb and Glenda Hood in Florida and Ken Blackwell in Ohio .