Experts Wary of Predicting Win for Bush

[Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin]

By TOM RAUM, Associated Press Writer

WASHINGTON - President Bush (news - web sites) will be the first president in 72 years to face the electorate with a net job loss. The Iraq (news - web sites) war has deeply torn the nation. National polls show a neck-and-neck race. Yet economy-based projections still show a decisive Bush victory on Nov. 2. What gives?


Political scientists and many economists say this may be the year to throw the economic models out the window. Forecasters are flummoxed about the impact of Iraq, uncertain about the true state of the economy, and less sure about their projections than in any recent election.

-snip-

Foreign policy on the average is not that big a deal. But this time could be different. You never know. Iraq is such a big issue," said Yale economist Ray Fair, who has one of the best track records for predicting elections.


His model predicts Bush will get 57.5 percent of the vote, using such variables as economic growth, inflation, incumbency and duration in office. He has been accurate in five of the past six elections, missing only in 1992 when Bush's father lost.

-snip-

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story2&u=ap/bush_s_economy

[otohara]

1. What Gives? Whoring Bush Press For 5 Years

dumbing down voters by press, telling lies by press, hiding truth by press.

[liberal N proud]

2. The bush factor...

missing only in 1992 when Bush's father lost.

[Warpy]

3. C'mon, the country aint that stupid

Sure, about 40% of the electorate may have bought part of all of the tissue of lies they've been given over the past 4 years, but they're still seeing an unwinabble war in Iraq that was sold to them on nonexistant WMDs, people being thrown out of good jobs that are disappearing forever, only to reappear in China or India, as formerly well trained and well paid people have to scramble for Walmart and fast food jobs, and an economy that was handed to Bush on a silver platter but has wound up in the toilet. That's even if they don't think Bushco was asleep at the wheel for the first eight months of their reign or that they stole the office in the first place.

My guess is that those record voter registration numbers are very, very bad news for Bushco, that the pundits know this, and that they're loath to go out on a limb completely and lie about a coming Bush victory to suppress the Democratic vote.

Sorry, but without massive voter fraud, there is NO WAY Buscho will get elected.

[Gman]

4. The problem with the economic models

is that you can't trust the numbers that go into the models from this "administration" including unemployment, inflation, and many of the indicators.