Let's clear up some myths about undecided voters.

[TruthIsAll]

1. They are not going to vote.
2. They are small in number.
3. They are idiots.
4. They will not make up their minds until they enter the voting booth.
5. They are not a factor in the election.

All myths.

Here are some facts:
1. Undecideds have consistently been 7-10% in the polls all year.

2. Historically, they vote for the challenger, because they are dissatisfied with the incumbent. That's why they are undecided.

3. They are looking for the challenger Kerry to close the sale. They want to RATIONALIZE their vote AGAINST the incumbent Bush.

4. Many are Republicans who have come to loathe Bush, but who identify themselves as undecided in response to a pollsters question. They cannot admit they will vote for Kerry.

5. The undecided are mostly Republicans and Independents in transit to Kerry.

6. Kerry will probably get 75% of the undecided vote. This will lock it up nicely for him, thank you.

The Election Model's projections and probabilities are predicated on the allocation of the undecided vote to Kerry. Because one cannot forecast the allocation exactly, we ask WHAT-IF and assume several undecided allocation assumptions for Kerry, ranging from 50% to 75%.
Obviously as the allocation increases, so will the projected popular vote, the expected electoral vote along with the win probability.

However you slice it, Kerry will benefit.

http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/

[porkrind]

1. I hope you're right.

Thanks for the analysis.

[sangh0]

2. I agree

Kerry is closing the deal. It's happening while we speak.

[murielm99]

3. I'll take number three.

They ARE idiots.

Anyone who has not decided at this late date is an out-of-touch fool.

I am sick of the pandering to these know-nothing idiots.

Look at both sides, people. There are major differences. Make up your minds and stop the attention seeking.

[demwing]

14. NICE.

These are not ignorant people. They are people in transition, people who have believed one way for much of their lives, but the complete ignorance and greed of the Bush administration has made them question their long held beliefs.

This is not stupid, nor is it idiotic.

Idiots are those who are presented with the truth and refuse to change their thinking. Idiots are not undecided, they are stubbornly wrong.

[TruthIsAll]

4. How undecideds break..

http://unfutz.blogspot.com/2004/09/how-undecideds-break.html

[The Revolution]

5. I think undecided voters are somewhat of a myth

I think theres a decent chunk of the so-called "undecided voters" that are not really undecided at all. Case in point, a while back I read a letter to the editor in my local paper, and the author claimed to be an undecided voter, then proceeded to bash Kerry and Democrats in general with all the usual crap for several paragraphs (claiming Democrats don't support the troops, hate God, etc.)

[NightOwwl]

6. #3 Certainly applies here...

Actual quote from an undecided:

“Bush is little bit more of a visionary than I thought, although I don’t know what his vision is exactly”

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/6191354 /

I don't know whether to laugh or cry.

[gardenista]

7. Thanks for another great post! nt

[Moonbeam_Starlight]

8. Yep

I read somewhere that any time you have an undecided, especially this late, it basically means the incumbent has NOT done their job and has not convinced them to go with them. Which means undecideds (true ones, NOT poseurs) are far more likely to go with the challenger, especially with either of these two factors present:

1. Growing dissatisfaction with incumbent.
2. Challenger "seals the deal" with them.

Either one does it, though #2 is obviously a stronger factor.

I do want to reflect what others have said here and agree that a lot of these "undecideds" we see on TV are not undecided at all. I cyber know a woman who has been pretending to be undecided for months now because she admitted to me she has gotten hooked on the attention it gets her from both camps. She's voting for bush.

[Awsi Dooger]

9. I'm sticking with 62-63% undecideds for Kerry

My research consistently indicates undicideds do not break as much in favor of the challenger in a race near 50/50. I never see that taken into account when these 65-75% estimations are made. You can't just average everything without making adjustments due to situation.

In a lopsided race either way, undecideds appear to be much more free to abandon the incumbent, either unwilling to give him a landslide or piling on when his opponent has a clear lead. Many late polls had Clinton with a significant double digit lead in '96, but the undecideds broke heavily for Dole and Clinton won by roughly 8.5%. No one can convince me Dole would have managed the same percentage of undecideds if that vote was crucial to the outcome. It would be a different type of undecided, IMO. In the disputed Alabama gov race in 2002, many pollsters projected a decisive win for Republican challenger Riley, who was already slightly ahead in the polls. But undecideds actually voted in favor of incumbent Democrat Siegelman.

According to virtually every state poll, a majority of undecideds are women, which favors Kerry. Women are always more willing to admit to pollsters they are undecided or unsure. Macho men feel compelled to declare a position.

It does appear slightly more Republicans are undecided than Democrats, based on state polls since August. That's another reason I have lowered the Kerry projection to 62-63%. Voters registered for the other party do not break against their partisanship as much as true independents.

I can't believe these ridiculous threads dismissing the undecideds. Look at it this way: if Bush has a legit 1 point lead among commited voters but there are 8% undecided, even a 60/40 split in favor of Kerry would be worth 4.8 points to 3.2, giving Kerry a .6 popular vote edge and most likely the presidency.

Just don't tell that to Al Gore.

[TruthIsAll]

12. If there are 8% undecided, Kerry will get 5% (a net 2% gain)

He's in the driver's seat, headed for 52-53%.

But, but...Diebold...

[missouri dem]

10. Our local phone bank here in rural Missouri has shown

A big, big increase in undecided voters in the last week.
Today I had two republicans come into democratic headquarters and want Kerry signs. One more sorry w debate performance and it will be a landslide and possibly a permanent shift away from the republican party.

[KellyPaDem]

11. really not undecided

I read somewhere (sorry can't remember where) that people who claim their are undecided are not. These people just like to be pandered to. They like being able to control the candidates message, so when asked they say they are undecided and tell pollsters what their issues are.

[BlueNomad]

I hope

you are right because every time I see one interviewed on TV, I am aghast. Nightline just interviewed some of those folks, and my husband and I just looked at each stunned and mute. I just don't get how you go through a year of a one of the most publicized and contemptuous campaigns in modern history --then sit taking actual notes on two debates and not know what you are going to do. I actually think some of these people are narcissistic oddballs. I mean what are they waiting for Kerry or Bush to ring their doorbells and offer to make dinner?

[BlueNomad]

13. sorry double post

sorry double post