Gallup says Kerry KILLED with independent voters (Kerry - 53%, AWOL - 37%)

[Proud2BAmurkin]

Gallup also admits the "overall" number that showed only a slight win for Kerry was due to DISPROPORTIONATE REPUKE SAMPLE.

<SNIP>

Democrats rallied behind Kerry's performance by 87% to 8%, while Republicans rallied behind Bush's performance by a slightly smaller margin, 83% to 10%. But independents chose Kerry by a 16-point margin, 53% to 37%.

<SNIP>

The reason the overall figures show only a slight advantage for Kerry, despite his greater margin among his own party and winning the independent vote, is that the sample of viewers had more Republicans (38%) than Democrats (32%) or independents (30%).

http://www.gallup.com/poll/content/?ci=13549

[NightOwwl]

1. What I want to know...

8% of Democrats voted for Bush. We know one is Zell Miller, but who are the rest of these people?

[undercover_brother]

6. 8% margin of error :)

[Demi_Babe]

7. not REAL democrats

[malatesta1137]

43. not REAL humans

you mean

[question everything]

10. Ed Koch

Also misguided Jews who think that Bush is good for Israel

[Silvermint]

42. The Misguided Jewish Voter

This is actually a topic of some frustration from me. I'm Jewish, and I'm also a first-generation American (my parents, brother, relatives, and so forth, left the Soviet Union and came to the USA two years before I was born). While my immediate family grows more and more liberal by the day, most of my relatives are actually nose-diving deep into neo-con territory. One of their biggest reasons is that they equate the war on terror (and more specifically, the war in Iraq) as a pro-Israeli war.

Keep in mind that, during the Gulf War, Saddam tossed a few missiles towards Tel Aviv. A lot of the Jews who are more nationalistic think that Saddam's ouster is wonderful, regardless of whether he had WMD or ties to terror. I really hate to admit it, being that I'm a liberal (who actually thinks that Israel is more to blame in the current conflict than are the Palestinians), but an increasing number of Jews are becoming polarized and, well, to be blunt, anti-Arab. And this trend sickens me because, well, let's face it... of all the ethnicities on Earth, you'd think that a group of Russian Jews who lost half their family to the Holocaust would have learned the lesson that hatred and "final solutions" are no-no's.

This is not to say that ALL Jews are abandoning the Democrats. To be fair, the Jewish vote was always somewhat divided. I do think a rough correlation can be drawn, though, between the level of your nationalistic pride in the state of Israel and your inclination to vote for Bush this year.

This, however, is absolutely foolish, because such Jews are making a mistake when they assume that Bush is their man. After all, the Iraq blunder did not make Israel safer (that was just another Cheney debate lie). The Iraq war is breeding terrorists at a shocking rate, and most terrorists from that region are anti-Israeli as well as being anti-American. Just look at the targeting of Israeli Jews in American hotels along the Israeli-Egyptian border a few days ago. Bush's inept war has made Israel less secure at an even faster rate than it has made America less secure, for the very simple reason that Israel is in the region.

Besides this miscalculation, let us not forget that Kerry / Edwards have been remarkably strong supporters of Israel (see: other threads, debate transcripts, as well as johnkerry.com itself for further info), and, point of fact, all American presidents have been remarkably strong supporters, dating all the way back to 1948. Let us also not forget that it was President Clinton who did the most to help forge a safe and fair holy land, a ball that Bush dropped around the same time as he was withdrawing from the Kyoto protocols and draining money from Planned Parenthood clinics that were educating people in India about safe sex.

The bottom line, though, is that, as much as some Jews are being brainwashed by the gorilla math that makes them think that 1 dead Arab = 1 safer Israeli, let's face it... a LOT of Americans are being brainwashed by this 'logic', not just Jews. After all, how else could we explain the 46% (or so) of Americans who think that the Chimp in Chief actually deserves four more years? This is NOT a Jewish problem, so much as it is an American problem, and some Americans are Jews. Let's also keep in mind, though, that the Jewish population in America is around 5 million, and as a result, we're 1.8% of the population. The 8% shift that was just brought up couldn't be caused by the Jews, even if every Jew had suddenly jumped into Bush's lap: there simply aren't enough Jews.

Finally, keep in mind that the 8% of Americans who thought that Bush won the debate are probably still Kerry voters. They're just weak-knee'd Kerry voters. You know, the kind of Democrats who, during the RNC, gave up on Kerry's chances. They're paranoid, stressed, and fearful that the Chimp can't be taken down... it's not surprising, then, that they might think that Bush won the debate just because he happened to yell some more than he did last time.

[wryter2000]

47. Wow

So many great points, eloquently put, in one post. Welcome to DU. Hope to see more of you. :yourock:

[kodi]

48. nicely put, and welcome aboard to DU

your remarks echo much of what my jewish friends have said to me about iraq.

[SeanQ]

50. Thanks!

:thumbsup:

[Jacobin]

54. This post should be a thread of its own

[Awsi Dooger]

11. if Kerry only loses 8% of Democrats, he'll win by landslide

Gore got 86% of the Democratic vote, compared to 91% of Republican support for Bush.

In every debate we have won with independents and undecideds. That's really all that matters. Kerry's slide in the polls came when he lost support among independents and women, plus blacks to some degree. There appears to be a significant reversal in all three blocks, according to the breakdown of recent polls.

[LiberalFighter]

21. It's called motivating the base

[Carolinian]

16. Vets who believed the lies about Kerry's testimony to Congress.

These men have spend 30 years hating Sen. Kerry and it was all based on a misrepresentation by the media. The news clip that has been aired all these years cuts out the beginning of the sentence in which Kerry describes the atrocities. What he said was "Retired high ranking officers had told him about the horrors they had seen. Horris like..." I heard the testimony in entirety on CSpan last month and that was the first time I had ever heard that Kerry was quoting others. Kerry has been used as a scape goat all these years by vets who came home from the war angry. The anger is certainly justified...but to pin it on Kerry is terribly unfair.

[Ksec]

2. great news

our man has momentum. Lets keep pushin' that train as hard as we can.

[Protagoras]

3. It must hurt for Gallup to have to post results like this

but it makes me pretty darn happy.

[Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin]

4. Clicking on the link shows the overall poll Kerry 47% * 45%

But Gallup admits they still have the Republican bias. 38% of those polled were Republicans 32% were Democrats.

[Moonbeam_Starlight]

23. So let me get this straight

Kerry is up 2% over bush EVEN WITH Republican oversampling???

WOOO HOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!!

[Erika]

5. And The New Voters Are For Kerry

People are tired of Bush, his war mongering, his economic policies that hurt the middle class, his refusal to represent all Americans rather than those in his choir.

[Ksec]

8. Lots of new voters are gonna give Kerry a huge win

Betcha

[Silvermint]

44. Well, that's

Assuming that they turn out. Keep in mind that a lot of newly registered voters, by virtue of being young and/or previously unmotivated to vote, aren't exactly the most reliable voting block.

We're out-registering Republicans at an incredible rate. Hell, we already have enough Democrats registered to beat Bush. We just need to make sure that any bad news that comes out in the days before the election doesn't de-motivate us and cause us to stay home.

[Carolinian]

17. Not in my county. New voters R=6%, D=4%, U=9%

Hope that the U votes D.

[Guaranteed]

9. That explains how they can sample 38% Republicans and still

come out with a Kerry win.

[Viking12]

12. Independents are looking for Kerry to do well

The only ones that don't believe Bush is a complete fuck-up are freepers. Independents/undecideds distrust Bush and want to vote for Kerry but need to overcome the vitriol spread by the conservative hate machine. Each major public appearance assures the independents/undecideds that Kerry is a strong capable President.

[MoonRiver]

13. Gallup is desperately trying to regain its long lost credibility.

Thanks for the bone about Independent voters, but you, Gallup, cooked the books to let little AWOL big time loser appear to be in a tie with the winner, Kerry. What you have and continue to due in terms of skewing poll results is totally despicable. :puke::mad::puke::mad::puke::mad:

[Silvermint]

45. Heh...

I have to disagree with you somewhat, Saywhat... I actually haven't seen any evidence that Gallup is trying to regain its long lost credibility! Seems to me that they keep spitting our skewed polls and skewed samples of so-called undecided voters (Bush voters getting on TV to announce that every time Bush smirked, it was because Kerry had just flip-flopped... you know, the same numbnuts who thought that Bush actually won the exchange over Canadian drugs).

[JPace]

14. I also heard that they cannot poll cell phones....

and most young people use cell phones. So if
all the newly registered young voters are not
being counted and more than half will vote for
Kerry it will be a real plus on Nov 2nd.

[demzilla]

15. It's not a matter of fuzzy math

that independents usually swing to the challenger. This is great news, as are the job approval and right/wrong track numbers posted on DU today -- what this means is that Chimpy will be bumping his thick skull on a ceiling of something like 48% of the electorate.

Even in Florida, 48% isn't enough for victory.

[TruthIsAll]

20. Make that 47-48%; he's under 47% now.

tia

http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/

[Moonbeam_Starlight]

25. That means his ceiling is only at 49% and Kerry will go over that

this is all very good.

[TruthIsAll]

18. That means Kerry wins 55.11% if they vote the same way.

Party	Pct  For Kerry Kerry%	For Bush Bush%
Dem	39.00%	87.00%	33.93%	10.00%	3.90%
Rep	35.00%	13.00%	 4.55% 83.00%	29.05%
Ind	26.00%	53.00%	13.78%	37.00%	9.62%
					
total		       52.26%		42.57%
2-party              55.11%	       44.89%

[Andromeda]

31. Thanks, TIA...

:yourock:

[Mojambo]

19. The undecideds have finally started to break for Kerry. n/t

[sundancekid]

22. I love the smell of landslide in the morning ... on nov. 3rd that is

[Eurobabe]

40. i tend to agree with you...

i think kerry is going to win by a much larger margin than the spin doctors would have us believe....

GO KERRY!!

[WindRavenX]

24. remember, in 2000 this group heavily went for Bush

If they switch to Kerry, it's all over.
This is EXCELLENT news and it shows the debates are really working to show the American people why JFK is the better man for the job.

[JI7]

26. remember, TRUE indies tend to be turned off by labels and partisan bashing

they were probably turned off by bush's use of labels and his liberal bashing .

as TRUE independents Kerry was appealing in that he rejected labels as they do and appealed to all people. just look at his answer to the supreme court appointments question. and the abortion question about how he represents ALL and has no right to put his personal beliefs to public policy affecting others.

[rockymountaindem]

36. That's very perceptive, JI7

I hadn't thought of it that way. Perhaps Bush's negative ads are pushing moderate voters away after all!

[The Velveteen Ocelot]

27. Kerry in a landslide!

[The Velveteen Ocelot]

28. Kerry in a landslide!

[LittleClarkie]

30. RIGHT ON!!

ALLELUIA AMEN!

Landslide!!

[DeepModem Mom]

29. kick

[bush equals idiot]

33. See, didn't I tell ya

the independents would be pointing like crazy to the tall good looking guy after the debate? And they say high school education gets you nowhere.

[Borgnine]

32. Hahaha!

Rove, this is going to have to be one hell of an October Surprise.

[Silvermint]

46. Hah

Indeed!

[The Backlash Cometh]

34. I guess the word is out on the street, huh?

Why can't professional organizations be honest on their own?

[iamjoy]

35. Always Thought Something Was Strange

About it being a tie or only a marginal win for Kerry.
Personally, I think Kerry won this debate far more decisively than the first and definitely more decisive than the Cheney/Edwards debate.

It wasn't really the content, Bush did all right considering what it was - I mean both of them dodged questions and gave stock political answers. Bush won lots of points for saying he wouldn't reinstate the draft (although funny how he wouldn't look in the camera and say it with the same certainty Kerry used on the tax pledge.) Much as we snicker about the "internets" everyone misspeaks now and then. It was the fact that when questioned about Iraq Bush seemed to become angry, shouting at the audience and at one point Tony Blair. Bush has this attitude like "Why can't you idiots understand removing Saddam was a good thing! And we did not go it alone. What is wrong with you people!" I mean, he even yelled at Charlie Gibson. How come no one makes an issue of this? Oh right, our liberal media. The same liberal media that will show an anti-Kerry film within two weeks of the election. The same liberal media that has never really pressed Bush on his miscalculations and mis-statements on Iraq.

[Skinner]

37. Very interesting numbers.

:thumbsup:

[0007]

38. WOW!!

[cthrumatrix]

39. seems like a BIG story.... where is the media sharing this?

[i_c_a_White_Ghost]

41. Kerry will win this thing if he can motivate the dems

I read where he gets like 85% or something, he needs to match * support.

[atre]

49. All their polls use a 38-32-30 sample... and they don't normalize?

Give me a fucking break. There's no way that their polls would so consistently show such a sample, especially given the current demographics. These assholes are normalizing by party affiliation, and doing so in a way that oversamples Republicans to such an extent that it presumes a greater relative Republican turnout than any presidential election since Reconstruction.

[SeanQ]

51. Normalized Gallup poll results

Here's my back-of-the-napkin normalization. Bringing dem and ind #'s polled up to # of republicans provides a total # polled to 588.

Normalized debate results are (rounded): 50% Kerry, 43% Bush, 7% Tie

[AmerDem]

52. Don't trust anything Gallup says. They will spin this just before ...

the election. Something like, "Kerry loses his once commanding lead of Independents".

Gallup has a single agenda and that is to get their fellow Evangelist elected.

[michmac]

53. Now, What do we do about Nader??

With Kerry taking a very slight lead in voter polls, how do we mobilize to get Nader to drop out of the race? He's getting about 1% of the vote, according to the last poll I saw.