Bogus Polls: Meaningless Farce Or Looming Tragedy?: Arianna

[madfloridian]

http://www.ariannaonline.com/columns/column.php?id=737

SNIP..."I've been wanting to weigh in for a while now on the negative — indeed, the downright dangerous — impact that public opinion polls are having on our democracy, but have held off until the numbers turned in John Kerry's favor lest I be accused of following in the footsteps of my Greek ancestors by killing the messenger...."

SNIP..."The dirty little secret of the polling industry is that, all too often, its findings are based on flawed methodology and dubious assumptions.

SNIP..." Take that mid-September Gallup poll that found Kerry had plummeted 14 points behind Bush. It sure made it seem as if Kerry were as good as done for, right? And that's the way it was widely reported by everybody, especially Gallup's media partners, USA Today and CNN. The problem is, the poll was absurdly weighted in favor of GOP voters, assuming that on Election Day 40 percent of those casting a ballot will be Republicans and only 33 percent will be Democrats — a turnout breakdown that will only happen in Karl Rove's dreams..."

SNIP...:Democrats have accounted for 39 percent of those voting in the last two presidential elections, while Republicans accounted for no more than 35 percent in either 1996 or 2000.

It's like they say about computers: garbage in, garbage out. With polls, it's faulty data in, faulty findings out."

[unblock]

1. even putting gallup's distortions aside, how to polls account for turnout?

i mean, i think all duers have the sense that democratic turnout will be notably higher than in the past and republican turnout will be no more than in the past.

i mean, democrats are really fired up, really with the sense that this is the most important election in a generation or more. democrats feel that four more years of shrub is eight years too many.

and many republicans are only reluctantly supporting shrub. most remain defiant and angrily support shrub, as is their defensive nature, but i think there are a LOT of republicans who will sit this one out or even vote for kerry.

but my question is, how do the polls account for that?

bush-kerry could be 46%-46% among all respondants, but the kerry respondannts will actually vote and more of the shrub respondants won't, so kerry would still win handily on election day.

i think this is our november surprise.

[bayby]

4. What is the betting on turnout anyway ?

Is anyone even making a prediction ? Aren't there certainly millions of potential Democrats who usually don't vote (because half the population does not vote). How many of those non-voters are registered right now ?
I'd appreciate that number, if anyone has it.

[sundancekid]

5. too thinly veiled enquiring mind ... there's a couple of websites where

you should go look first b4 asking here ...

[newyawker99]

8. Hi bayby!!

Welcome to DU!! :toast:

[RaleighNCDUer]

2. We need to make it clear how bogus the polls are.

If we don't, there will be millions of Repubs who will be convinced that we somehow stole the election. In fact, I believe that is why they are being skewed in that way, to make a case for disputing Kerry's clear victory.

[Jasper 91]

6. I think the opposite

I think they are being skewed so Bush can steal the election . If the polls showed the truth , that Kerry has a big lead , which I firmly believe to be true , then it would be harder to convince people that Bush had won the election fairly .

[KelleyKramer]

3. Arianna, Thank you! For keeping this in the press

We need to keep the heat on them about the totally flawed.. hell, FAKE polls the media keeps using!

[LynneSin]

7. Personally, I think most polls are CRAP

They keep weighing in with the "Likely Voter" which are voters that have had a history of voting before. Those polls tend to be in favor of bush or almost a tie.

Yet then, buried in the article, is the same poll taken with REGISTERED voters - voters who are registered but may not have a voting history or registered for the first time: ALL THE TIME KERRY WINS!!!

Now when you look at the massive voter registrations going on in this country, registration levels comparable to what happened in 1992 - Polls that consider only the "likely voter" are flawed. People are angry this year and they're voting for the first time ever.