What the polls DON'T take into account

[ButterflyBlood]

Most polls target likely voters. A likely voter model might work in a traditional election, but they won't in this one since there are millions who have never voted in their life who are so pissed at * that they are registering just to kick his ass out. And the polls don't include them.

Nor do they include people who only use cell phones. Most college students and young yuppie liberals. Not exactly the most *-friendly demographic.

Therefore, I'd say the polls are skewed about 2 points to * at least. So they're good for judging trends, but not the actual numbers. Right now the trend is to Kerry.

[onebigbadwulf]

1. Zogby is the most accurate as historal data shows

I trust it to be within 2pts of actual (in either direction)

[DaleyDemocrat]

2. Gawd, I hope you're right.

I'm sick to my stomach right now.

I have two very good friends whom I've been lobbying for months. I thought I had them convinced. After watching the debate Friday, they now BOTH say they're voting for W.

I need a drink.

DD

[Libby2]

3. If that debate convinced them to vote for bush

then they have more problems than voting.

[DaleyDemocrat]

19. One said Bush "Looked More Presidential"

How do you argue with that??

The other said that "Kerry keeps saying he has a plan but never says what it is. He just keeps telling people to go his web site."

I've actually heard that echoed a bit across the media so I don't know if he got it there or drew that conclusion himself.

At any rate, it probably would be a good idea to cool the "we have a plan" thing. It does sound a bit lame.

DD

[meganmonkey]

20. When he does lay out his plans

They call him long-winded/windbag.
You just can't win with people's short attention spans.

[txindy]

23. That's exactly what I was going to say

When the Senator describes his plan for anything, he's accused of lecturing his audience and going on and on and on. These people just can't be satisfied, so let them vote for Junior. Then they can be disappointed when he loses. Anyone who thinks ranting and raving is presidential is either stupid or likes to be abused.

[LiberalAndProud]

21. Presidential Posture?

Bush* leans over the lecturn or whatever else is handy and hunches his shoulders and holds his head down.

Compare to Kerry -- eyes front, chest out, shoulders back ...

Looks more presidential my a**.

[SammyWinstonJack]

26. Well we know what Furious George has in store of us

More of the same and worse. And how does a madman look Presidential? :crazy:

[tjwash]

4. Why in jebus' name would they vote for him after that debate?

Kerry worked him hard, and was in complete control the whole time.

[grace0418]

13. after that debate?

I don't know what would make anybody vote for him EVER.

[kokomo]

7. Did they watch the debate or did they LISTEN to the pundits spin it?

[newyawker99]

12. Hi DaleyDemocrat!!

Welcome to DU!! :toast:

[Deja Q]

14. My condolances to you. And to this country.

I don't see how * can get more supporters. He was off the wall and nonsensical at times despite *looking* well.

[Mojambo]

5. I know people will think I'm crazy

But I think Kerry could come awfully close to getting a mandate (55% popular vote) in this election. It sounds crazy when you listen to the media pump up the close race, but I really think it could happen.

I think the polls are WAY off.

[Awsi Dooger]

6. I agree with your conclusion, but not for the same reasoning

Right now I'd say the polls have not caught the full impact of Kerry's momentum. Plus the undecideds are all but certain to break Kerry's way as the challenger. That's worth about two points right there.

However, your first paragraph implies pollsters only survey previously registered voters. They usually call at random, without benefit of a voter roll, and do not disregard people who have never voted.

[KharmaTrain]

8. It's Not Whose Registered, It's Who Votes

The polls will mean noting if we can't get our people to the polls to vote. All the registering won't mean a thing if they stay home. This is about to boil down to the ground game.

While the Democrats have surely had the best of new registrations this year, Rove's been working hard at it (supposedly 3-4 million new Repugnican voters since 2001), and, I think, a major reason Bunnypants is pandering so hard to the right so these new voters materialize on the church busses on Nov. 2.

We'll know early how great a night things will be. Rule of thumb...when turn out is high, Democrats win. But let's keep thinking we're 10 points behind and 1,000,000 voters shy.

[indigobusiness]

11. It's how the votes are counted

as well.

[Deja Q]

15. Exactly. I'm shocked but not surprised to hear how many states are

purportedly having problems with the voter registration systems.

[Ruffhowse]

9. Someone made a point earlier, and I agree, that undecideds usually

tend to vote for change rather than the status quo. One of the reasons they are undecided is that they are unhappy with things as they are, but don't know what they ultimately want. If given a good reason to vote for change, they tend to gravitate that direction.

[tjwash]

10. All the polls said B* was killing Gore in 2000...

...and Gore got more votes than the chimp.

Fuck the polls, they are nothing but another RW propaganda tool.

[Endangered Specie]

16. The way I see it, whatever skewing towards W in the polls...

should be left that way, sine it will probably be equal to what the Repo's steal this election. Therefore, the polls are relatively accurate, they inadvertenly compensate for reich-wing election-stealing.

[BillZBubb]

17. Repug campaign big wigs admit they need a 4% poll lead to win

Anything less than that and the Democratic turnout will beat them. Also, if Bush*s poll numbers are less than 48%, he's in big trouble.

[saccheradi]

18. you've got a MAJOR point with the cell phones...

I work for an apartment community and have phone service reports for all of our residents. Out of more than 250 apartments, MORE THAN HALF have no land line. They use only their cell phones.

if that is indicative of other communities as well, this could be a much bigger issue than a mere 2 point skew.

[meganmonkey]

22. Have any of you been polled?

None of my friends, family, or co-workers (pretty much all liberals) have been polled. In some cases the cell phone thing is in play, but not most of them. Who the hell are they talking to, anyway?!

[txindy]

27. I've always wondered that, myself

I fall into a number of the supposedly-important demographic groups both campaigns are targeting, yet no one has asked me a thing. Of course, I live in Texas, so that may have a lot to do with it. I guess. :shrug:

[LiberalAndProud]

24. I wonder ...

Three, or four or maybe five times in recent weeks I have come home to a message on my answering machine which, roughly quoted says ...

"This is not solicitation or telemarketing. Please return our call at 800....."

I never have returned the call because they won't say what it is, just what it isn't (kind of like Bush*). It occurs to me that perhaps they are attempting to poll me ... in which case I am included in the "margin of error" ... GRIN :9

[meganmonkey]

25. Could be...

So this also rules out folks with caller ID who screen their calls, people who aren't home during the hours of 6-9 pm (the most likely times for pollsters to call, I would imagine). I wonder what the demographics are for folks in these categories?