1) The GOP has not won a national (presidential) election since 1988. The Republican Party is truly the minority party, and it is only through vicious campaign tactics, outrageous lies, fraud, and the Electoral College, that they have managed to maintain their current level of strength in our govt. The great story of 2004 will be the final failure of these tactics, and the rise of a newly reinvigorated Democratic Party fully cognizant of how to deal with the demagoguery of this fading and racially uniform organization. America has changed, and the GOP is rapidly becoming a relic of a past that none of us can take much pride in having lived.
2) The Harry Truman Factor. The American people truly believe the buck stops at the desk of the president. And if a president sends this country to war, and if the for reasons that war turn out to be horribly mistaken, he needs to be held responsible. An error that has cost over 1,000 American military lives, plus 10s of billions of dollars in national treasure, is no small matter. And the Bush campaign's constant reliance upon excuses and finger pointing to somehow disguise his historic blunder in bringing us to this war in Iraq will in the end only exacerbate their political debacle. Bush's inability to admit he made mistakes diminishes him as both a leader and a man.
3) I believe that John Kerry held back in the last debate. This is not to say that I do not think Kerry won, quite the contrary. So eminently sane a man will always hold an advantage over a man whose moorings are not quite so firmly in place. Kerry is a very patient man, an individual known for his mastery of the end game. The 2nd debate is the least significant of the 3, and if you were planning to set a trap, that would be the moment to do so. Kerry conducted Friday night's debate in such a manner as to draw Bush out and expose everything he has to say. There are now no more secrets left in the Bush quiver, he's said everything he is going to say. I doubt that anyone could ever say the same about John Kerry.
4) At this time in the 2000 election cycle Bush held a double-digit lead over Al Gore. The Gallup Poll, often called America's most eminent, had Bush leading by 11 percentage points. But today even the most Republican over-sampling corporate polls gives Bush a 4 point lead at best. Independents such as Zogby, ARG, and Harris are now leaning Kerry. Ours is a party of free-thinking pains in the ass that only come home at the last possible minute. But come home they do, as evidenced by Al Gore's come from behind victory in 2000. Bush's political handlers cannot be happy.
5) In light of the sudden rash of stunning revelations these last few weeks regarding Bush's disastrous war in Iraq, (Rummy's comments on Saddam and Al Qaeda, Bremer's so-called inopportune remarks on troop levels, the Duelfer Report on the total absence of Iraqi WMD, the CIA revelations, and Powell's confessions of personal embarrassment over some of the pre-war malarkey he unloaded on the UN), I'm certain that there must be powerful blocs within the national power structure that are not all that certain they want to see another four years of rule by the inept and and erratic George W. Bush. And since these blocs are comprised of individuals that have not survived in their positions of influence by taking undue risks, we will be seeing more revelations of Bush incompetence in the not too distant future.
6) Voter registration. Can there be a more wonderful story than that of previously uncaring citizens recognizing the danger their country is in and deciding now is the time to make their voices heard?
Our president. He's mad.
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