Seriously, how do we know which way undecideds will go?

[BillZBubb]

I've seen the point made here that undecideds generally break against the incumbent on election day. What evidence do we have that this is true?

In the 2000 election, they seemed to break for Gore, who was de facto the incumbent. Same for Bush I in 1988 and Clinton in 1996.

Clearly, undecideds are open to replacing Bush*, but have to be sold that Kerry would be better for them (not necessarily the country). They are also uninformed and apathetic; otherwise, they could not be undecided in this election.

Given that, it appears to me that the undecideds {who even bother to vote) are more likely to stick with "the devil they know" than change to Kerry.

I'd be interested in hearing other theories.

[David Dunham]

1. Undecideds always break against incumbent presidents.

It always happens that way.

[BillZBubb]

8. What evidence do you have of this?

That's my question. Again in 1988, 1996, and 2000 the undecideds seemed to break FOR the incumbent (or VP running as de facto incumbent).

I'd like some evidence to counter those examples.

[MatrixEscape]

2. I would hope

that undecideds are actually thinking about their decision.

Maybe they are looking over the facts and considering the issues? Perhaps, with they value knowledge over blind faith, or belief?

If they can get a balanced view, they should be able to see clearly the best choice. Media bias will lean them one way, having access to the Internets can give them a more in-depth perspective.

[napi21]

3. I think that's why you saw a change for Kerry after the 1st debate.

I would think, anyone who is still "undecided" doesn't pay much if any attention to politics. Some may have seen the debate. Really disinterested people probably didn't.

I believe these people are most influenced by the people they work and live with. On every job, the conversations occasionally cover politics. As an example, my son NEVER watches the news. He told me he was voting for Kerry because of that those lying SVFT guys were spreading, and nobody called them on it. He said one of the guys he works with showed him the proof of Kerry's records. In 2000. he voted for shrub because he thought Gore would support taking his guns away, even though he doesn't have time to take them out of the damn gun cabinet.

[kokomo]

4. Bill Hemmer let an "undecided" speak Friday night on CNN...........

And she said after watching the debate, she was definately going to vote for Bush. And here I thought most folks hated bullies! Maybe the woman is in an abusive marriage :spank: and is "co-dependent". I guess maybe some see Bush's personality as being

"strong"! Different strokes!

[baltodemvet]

5. We don't know but

It is true that undecideds to tend to go with the challenger. It stands to reason: the fact that they're undecided means they have some sort of reservations about the incumbent.

The Democracy Corps polls suggest that, as they've gotten a better feel for Kerry in the course of the debates, undecideds are finding Kerry a credible alternative to tWit.
http://www.democracycorps.com/reports/surveys/Democracy_Corps_October_8_2nd_Presidential_Debate_Release.pdf

[Barney Rocks]

6. actually, it does seem as though

in the races you cited the incumbent benefitted. I have been repeating for months what I heard a while back (that incumbents break for the challenger)--and this has given me a lot of comfort. Just a few minutes ago, I was talking to a friend (and engineer and statistician--not a real partisan--but he will vote for Kerry)--he tells me that the model where undecideds vote for the challenger is based on Congressional races--that it is the opposite in presidential races--he says that in pres races the undecideds either stick with the incumbent or do not vote.

I found this really disturbing--but I don't want to believe it and I will not believe it until I see some proof. Does anyone know for sure? If the undecideds break Bush's way--we are screwed. We need to find a way to convince them that they need to vote Kerry and we need to do it quickly.

[babylonsister]

7. I met a gal last night at a concert.

We were talking briefly about politics (me arguing w/a friend who's a repug, but all good-natured). This couple walks up; the husband is a union man voting for Kerry, his wife is undecided. I never met them before, but looked her in the eyes and said, "At this late date, HOW CAN YOU BE UNDECIDED? I'm not trying to offend you, but I am really curious." Her husband concurred and she had no answer.

[BillZBubb]

9. Your friend has the same information as I do.

Presidential elections are different in respect to undecideds. "The devil you know" factor is a huge influence because the stakes are so high.

But, all is not lost. Even if a majority of the undecideds go for Bush*, Kerry can still win it. It's turnout that counts.

[Barney Rocks]

10. I agree--

we can do it--and we WILL do it. It is disappointing to think that the undecideds may not break our way--but I would rather know the worst--and plan accordingly. This means we have to work twice as hard on the voter turnout.

[jacksonian]

11. VP is not an incumbent

they go through the same "can he do it?" process that challengers do. Remember, the big part of a VP's campaign "I am my own man."

'88 and '00 were VPs. 1996, well the question is "who is Bob Dole?" for $200, Alex.

Undecideds break for challengers, usually. But these are human voters, not numbers you can just plug in.