The states Bill Clinton won in 1996 that could be back in play

[Quixote1818]

Clinton won 379 Electoral votes and several states that surprised me when I looked back. Some I don't think we have a Chance at but several I think we most certainly do. They are:

Nevada, Ohio, Missouri, New Hampshire, Florida and Arkansas.

OK I know Clinton was from Arkansas but it's actually a very heavily Democratic state and in the most recent polls it's tied.

These states he won I don't think Kerry has much chance at:

Kentucky, W. Virginia, Tenn. Louisiana and Arizona


I predict we take back Ohio, New Hampshire and Nevada this time. The others are certainly possible as well. Ohio has lost a lot of jobs and the outsourcing theme is resonating. Nevada has yucca mountain and a lot of new Hispanic voters. New Hampshire is right next door to Mass.

Other states in play that were not won by Clinton in 96. Colorado

[the_outsider]

1. tennessee was very close for a while

it may still be in play.

[baltodemvet]

3. No, don't give up on TN (nt --no pun intended)

[RaleighNCDUer]

2. I don't think Clinton got NC in 92 or 96 and polls show it leaning to

Bush - But I think it is more in play than they figure. If, and I mean if, Bush takes NC it will be by 3 or less.

I sure would like to be on the right side, for a change.

[Quixote1818]

4. What would cause NC to be moving so far to the left? Any ideas?

[The Chronicler]

6. Edwards is my guess (nm)

[ButterflyBlood]

7. Northeast transplants

there's a ton moving down there

[KoKo]

10. Yes...people I've met who want Kerry signs and who are GOTV

seem to be transplants. Although some have lived here for over 15 years they are considered transplants.

Some of our native NC'linians, though are so left they are forming a "Progressive Wing" of the Democratic Party.

So you've got some angry Liberal Dems from the 60's crowd who remember Vietnam and Civil Rights Marches and lots of transplants who are terrified of Bush and the Religious issues. Also some of the military families here are very angry and I expect now that they know there are no WMD they are even more pissed.

But I'm in an urban area in NC which is pretty active. I don't know what the folks out in the more rural areas are doing. I think they are more conservative than ever and in Bush's camp.

[RaleighNCDUer]

12. The short answer? Bush.

There are a lot of newly registered voters here who are not being counted as "likely voters", and though there is a huge military presence here, that doesn't make it a sure thing for Bush. I suspect that a lot of military are fed up with what he's doing -- the mission is to protect America, which we are patently unable to do at this point, because our strength is being squandered in Iraq.

I am short on evidence, but my gut feeling is that is will be close.

[sandnsea]

5. Fighting for WV

The campaign doesn't have you call states if they aren't trying to win them. ;)

[Doosh]

9. We have a better chance at Virginia than W. Virginia

Latest poll from Va. puts us only 3 back.

[indyjones1938]

8. I agree that some of these states are in play

It's time for the Kerry campaign to get away from this "do or die" trifecta of OH-FL-WV. Between Diebold, voter supression and intimidation and outright fraud, we simply can't count on Ohio and Florida. And now that the Christian Coalition (Ralph Reed) is spearheading massive GOTV efforts in West Virginia's fundie churches, the polls there are beginning to lean heavily toward Bush. We should keep these states in play, but try to devise other winning strategies to reach the 270 mark.


I like NH (4) + AR (6) + CO (4 provided referendum passes) + NV (5) for a total of 19 EV. Assuming that of the "Big Three" PA-OH-FL, we lose Ohio because of Diebold (20), then these 19 EV will basically let us break even.

That would get us comfortably over 270 and protect us from electoral challenges in SCoTUS. Wild scenarios may take place if Colorado's referendum fails, but Kerry still edges a win. In that case, he would get 9 EV instead of 4 EV. Or if he wins the state but the referendum passes, he would get 5 EV and Bush would only get 4 EV.

Missouri (11) may provide a possible steal opportunity, if Gephardt ever gets around to campaigning for Kerry.

[eriffle]

11. I don't know about WV

Being in WV i see a lot of bush signs in yards, but i see many more kerry bumper stickers, what does that mean? I dunno. However, in West Virginia we have early no excuse voting starting this wedensday and they're going to be open the last two saturdays in october. Basically everyday between this Wednesday and election day we are going GOTV activities. Especially on the 23 and 30 which are the two Saturdays. Our Sen. Byrd and Sen. Kennedy are visiting the state this week or next, Michael Moore is visiting my University on the 27, and Al Sharpton and Tucker Carlson are going to debate at my University on the 21st. So, we're going to have a lot of election publicitiy here and I think if we can really GOTV at the two major Universitys in my area, WVU and Fairmont State, WV has a good chance of going blue. The problem with some of our student registration though is that WVU is only about 10 miles south of the PA border, so a lot of the out of state students are from PA and a lot of them think their vote would be more valueable in PA then in WV.

edit: to clairify