A Must Read on Why Kerry has an excellent Chance!!

[i_c_a_White_Ghost]

The Big Five-Oh

An incumbent who can’t break 50 percent is in trouble, even if he’s ahead. Not that we’re referring to anyone in particular.

By Guy Molyneux


http://www.prospect.org/web/page.ww?section=root&name=ViewWeb&articleId=8694


"....However, in incumbent elections, the incumbent’s percentage of the vote is a far better indicator of the state of the race than the spread. In fact, the percentage of the vote an incumbent president receives in surveys is an extraordinarily accurate predictor of the percentage he will receive on election day -- even though the survey results also include a pool of undecided voters. Hence the 50-percent rule: An incumbent who fails to poll above 50 percent is in grave jeopardy of losing his job."

"....Think of it this way: The percentage that Bush receives in polls represents his ceiling of support; he may get a little less, but won’t get more. In contrast, Kerry’s percentage represents his floor, and he will almost certainly do better on election day."

[SpaceCatMeetsMars]

1. Thanks! Kick!

[liberal N proud]

2. Thanks for the encouragement

[emulatorloo]

3. Only way GWB can win is if they successfully paint Kerry as "Unacceptable"

which is basically thier strategy - weak, ineffectual, indecisive, etc.

The debates prove that they are selling a caricature of Kerry.

Now, how do we fight against this campaign of disinformation in the weeks after the debate?

[F.Gordon]

7. What does it say about an "incumbent" that attacks?

..

[bunkerbuster1]

8. Not so hard to fight the disinformation campaign now, methinks

Now, how do we fight against this campaign of disinformation in the weeks after the debate?

I'm glad to say, it's easy. Just keep Kerry out there answering questions. Hold press conferences. 65 million voters saw Kerry in the debate acting resolute and Presidential. Just keep it coming.

The Chimperor can't hold a candle to it, and he'll just get more and more desperate in the next three weeks.

my story/stickin' to it.

[Stephanie]

4. I saw this demonstrated by Clinton pollster

But he said to look at the job approval number. He showed with graphs that the incumbent's job approval always matches his total votes percentage. The horse race poll does not match as well, but the job approval number always does, in modern elections with an incumbent in the race.

[kaitykaity]

5. Thanks for kicking this.

I needed a bit of perspective this morning.

:)

[F.Gordon]

6. An incumbent "war-time" president

bush* should not only be polling over 50% in all the polls, he should have a double digit lead over Kerry.

As I've slithered around the internets looking at various polling reports I'm noticing more "disclaimers". Polls "may be" out of wack because of high registration numbers... large number of first time voters... higher voter turnout....

It's called CYA. Me thinks that even the pollsters aren't sure what the fuck is going to happen and don't want to be covered in egg on election day.....

[okieinpain]

9. good article, thanks for posting.

[On the Road]

10. Best Thing I've Read This Year on Polls and the Election

[i_c_a_White_Ghost]

11. Kick

:kick: