Do You Trust The Rasmussen Poll?

[DemocratSinceBirth]

[DemocratSinceBirth]

1. They Are Worse Than Gallup...

At least Gallup is a real polling organization with more PHDs in Statistics than you can count...

[Media_Lies_Daily]

4. Gallup likes to poll more Republicans than Democrats...

...despite the fact that there are more registered Democrats than Republicans.

All that high-powered intellect must make them think that the rest of us are stupid.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

7. Gallup Doesn't Weight...

If on Sunday 40% of the likely voters say they are Republicans and on Monday 30% of likely voters say they are Republican so be it...

[WI_DEM]

2. I don't truly trust any poll

but I will say this about Rasmussen, when other polls were showing Bush pulling away in September--they still showed a very tight race. Now, however, with other polls showing either a tied race or Kerry slightly ahead, they like ABC give Bush a four-point lead. It's weird.

[Fovea]

3. But I think that we will discover

that the internet is now a better cross section of voting patterns
than phone polling.

So I don't totally trust any of them right now.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

5. The Net Discriminates Against Poor Folks...

Lots of poor folks don't have internet access so internet polls miss them....

[Fovea]

18. I agree.

But so does regular phone polling, in many cases.

[milkyway]

6. No, don't trust any poll that does not show Kerry with a solid lead right

now. The underestimating of the newly registered voters and the voter turnout from the Dem base, particularly minorities, and the misreading of the impact of the two debates have skewed polls. If the election were held today, and counted fairly, Kerry would win by at least 6% nationally and with well over 300 electoral votes.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

9. Six Percent Is A Tad Bit Generous IMHO...

Despite all the statistical models on the net only a fierce partisan would say they know the winner with certainty...


I'll remain guardedly optimistic...

[Jackpine Radical]

8. How about an option for

Do you trust THIS poll?

[DemocratSinceBirth]

10. It's A Fairly Straight Forward Poll

[Jackpine Radical]

14. Humor.

[BillZBubb]

11. No, Rasmussen always starts out reasonable.

Then in the heat of the election season, he pushes the Repugs. This lulls a lot of people into believing his later polls--which are slanted. He's trying to demoralize the Dem base.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

12. u nailed him- he didn't fool me in 00

nt

[Fluffdaddy]

13. No mostly because it goes against my guy ....hehehhehe

[Gman]

15. Yes, to a degree

I think Rasmussen trends conservative so I usually assume a point or two bias toward Bush. Knocking a point or two off Bush's results and adding it to Kerry usually puts them about in the middle of the pack. Therefore, I think they're reliable to that degree.

The only poll I consider dead on accurate is Zogby because he had the only poll showing Gore winning in '00.

[WI_DEM]

16. for those interested today Ras has the race 49% Bush 45.4% Kerry

a small boost from yesterday for Kerry.

[kattenstoet]

17. Correlation between Bush lead and GOP congressional ballot

One thing to note about Rasmussen is that there is a very high correlation between Bush's "lead" and the narrowness of the Dem margin in the generic congressional ballot. That is, when Bush's "lead" is relatively large, the Dem edge in congress is relatively small. Assuming that local party affiliations are more stable that presidential preferences, this suggests that the fluctuations we see in the Rasmussen poll are really just that - fluctuations - rather than a true shift to either candidate.

[tritsofme]

19. I think he has the most to prove out of the major pollsters this year

Because if he blows it again like he did in 2000, there's no way any sane person will take him seriously in 2006 and 2008.

But until I see how he does on election day, I reserve judgement.

I do however find it completely hilarious that now that Rasmussen is showing polls that are unfavorable to us he is becoming a pariah around here after being lauded all year.