Race Summary from the Party: Kerry (264) vs *(239) and other races

[JCMach1]

Big news is the party has Kerry with 264 and * with 239

and *Damn* it looks right now that it would come down to Florida again

:(

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Today's Topic: Monday Review of the Must Win States:
>
> Some major changes from last week.
>
> State polling for president and senatorial races is occuring fast and
> furious, the frustrating thing is that it takes days to get the
> results posted on the websites that are following them.
> Unfortunately, the websites promising to track congressional races are
> very slow on the uptake; going to individual Newspaper and TV Stations
> is very time consuming. I am hoping that this situation will improve
> in the next week or so. In the meantime, we will still have to rely
> on assessments without numbers in too many cases. I am leaving last
> week's numbers in the charts so that you can see the trends on one
> page rather than looking them up in old DCRs.
>
> STATE: Missouri EV: 11
>
> PRESIDENTIAL RACE
>
> DATE POLLSTER MOE BUSH KERRY NADER UND.
> 10 5 Zogby 3.0 49.6 48.6
> 10 4 Rasmussen 5.0 51 45
> 10 3 Survey USA 3.8 49 47
> 9 14-17 Mason-Dixon 4.0 48 41 1
> 9 11-13 St. Louis Post 3.5 49 42 9
> The race in Missouri is tightening up; Kerry got a lot of free
> advertising from the St. Louis debate after pulling most ads in the
> preceding weeks. But right now it looks like Bush's state to lose. BUSH 11
> SENATE
>
> DATE POLLTER MOE Bond Farmer UND
> No new polling since last week, but Bond is still way ahead.
> 9 13-16 St. Louis Post 3.5 53 38 9
>
> We are not following any House races in Missouri at this point
>
> GOVERNOR
>
> DATE POLLSTER MOE Blunt McCaskill UND
> No new polling since last week.
> 9 13-16 St. Louis Post 3.5 46 45 9
>
> COMMENT: Misssour is much tighter than before, but Bush still leads.
> It is his to lose at this point.
>
>
> STATE: Florida EV: 27
>
> PRESIDENTIAL RACE
>
> DATE POLLSTER MOE BUSH KERRY NADER UND.
> 10 5 Zogby 2.2 48.4 49.7
> 10 4-5 Mason-Dixon LV 4.0 48 44 2 6
> 10 2-5 ARG LV 4.0 45 47 2 6 10 1-5
> Quinnipiac Univ RV 3.7 46 42 10
> 9 24-27 Gallup (RV) 4.0 49 44 2 5
> 9 18-21 Quinnipiac Univ. 3.4 48 43 2 1
>
> SENATE
>
> DATE POLLSTER MOE Martinez Castor UND
> 10 5-7 Global Strategy (D) 3.7 40 47 12 (LV)
> 10 4-6 Strategic Vision (R) 3.0 45 48 7 (LV)
> 10 1-5 Quinnipiac LV 3.7 48 47 5
> " RV 3.7 40 44 14
> 9 18-22 CNN 4.0 43 49 8
> 9 18-21 Quinnipian Univ. 3.4 42 43 13
> I don't like to post party polls, because I qeustion their methodolgy
> and accurace, but since both Global Strategy and Strategic Vision are
> in agreement, I thought it useful to include it this time. Caster
> still appears to holds a lead, but some commentators are saying the
> Martinez has narrowed the gap and may even lead (look at Quinnipiac).
> We will have to watch closely; this is truly a must win for us.
>
> HOUSE - FL - 13
>
> POLLSTER POP MOE Harris Schneider UND
> No recent polling data, but Harris is apparantly doing well.
>
> No Governor's race in Florida
>
> COMMENT: This race has tightened again with some polls, particularly
Zogby
> with a MOE of 2.2 showing Kerry taking the lead. But I am not yet
> convinced, so I will call this one a tie until more data comes in.
> What else do you expect in Florida?
>
>
> STATE: Ohio EV: 20
>
> PRESIDENTIAL RACE
>
> DATE POLLSTER MOE BUSH KERRY NADER UND.
> 10 4-6 ARG LV 4.0 47 48 1 4
> 10 5 Zogby 2.3 48.9 49.0
> 10 3 Survey USA 3.6 48 49
> 9/22-10/1 Columbus Dispatch 2.0 51 44 5
> 9 25-28 CNN 4.0 49 47 3
>
>
> SENATE
>
> DATE POLLSTER MOE Voinivich Fingerhut
UND
>
> No new poll since last week's report. Most observers don't think
Fingerhut
> has a chance to catch Voinivich.
> 9/22-10/1 Columbus Dispatch 2.0 56 34 10
> 9 21-22 Fox News 3.5 58 30 11
>
> We are not following any House races in Ohio
>
> No Governor's race in Ohio
>
> COMMENT: Three straight polls give Kerry a "within the margin of
> error" lead. Notice that Zogby's 2.3 MOE also shows the two separated
> by .1.
Did
> I mention last week that turnout is everything in Ohio? (Don't look, I
> did.) KERRY 20, but not solid.
>
>
> STATE: Pennsylvania EV: 21
>
> PRESIDENTIAL RACE
>
> DATE POLLSTER MOE BUSH KERRY NADER UND.
> 10 4-6 ARG LV 4.0 46 48 1 5
> Without Nader 46 49
> 10 5 Zogby 2.6 46.4 51.9
> 10 1-4 West Chester LV 4.0 43 50 1 6
> 9 90-10 4 Franklin & Marshall 4.0 41 48 3 8
> 9 27-28 Mason-Dixon 4.0 44 45 2 9
> 9 25-28 CNN 4.0 45 49 3 5
>
> Interesting poll on "Is it time for a change?" from Franklin &
> Marshall University (Pennsylvania only):
> 9 30-10 4 Yes 55 No 40
> 9 8-15 Yes 49 No 47
>
> SENATE
>
> DATE POLLSTER MOE Specter Hoeffel Other UND
> 10 1-4 West Chester 4.0 49 30 20
> 9 30-10 4 Franklin&Marshall 4.0 44 35 7 14
> (LV)
> 46 32 6 16
> 9 22-26 Quinnipiac Univ. 2.9 52 33 13
> (There are third party candidates in the race). Most observers have
> been calling this race over, but, with Kerry's lead now solidifying,
> Hoeffel's numbers are not without hope. 14-20% undedicded this late
> in the race tells me that something is going on. Let's wait for more
> data before declaring Specter the winner.
>
>
> HOUSE PA - 6
>
> DATE POLLSTER MOE Gerlach Murphy UND
> No recent polling data in PA - 6, but Gerlach believed to be ahead.
>
> HOUSE PA - 8
>
> DATE POLLSTER MOE Fitzpatrick Schrader
UND
> No recent polling data in PA - 8, but Schrader is given a good chance
here.
>
> HOUSE PA - 13
>
> DATE POLLSTER MOE Brown Schwartz UND
> No more recent polling. Schwartz is believed to be safe.
> 9 16-21 Franklin & Marshall 4.9 32 45 23
>
> HOUSE PA - 15
>
> DATE POLLSTER MOE Dent Driscoll Other UND
> 9 27 10 3 Muhlenberg College 4.7 52 20 2 26
> 26% undecided when the leader has a 32 point lead. ???
>
> HOUSE PA - 17
>
> DATE POLLSTER MOE Paterno Holden UND
> No recent polling data in PA -17, but Holden is expected to win.
>
> There is no governor's race in Pennsylvania
>
> COMMENT: Pennsylvania has clearly moved in Kerry's direction over the
> past week. KERRY 21
>
>
> STATE: Michigan EV: 17
>
> PRESIDENTIAL RACE
>
> DATE POLLSTER MOE BUSH KERRY NADER UND.
> 10 6 Survey USA 3.9 42 52
> 10 5 Zogby 2.8 44.5 54.2
> 9 22-28 Detroit Free Press 3.5 46 48 6
> 9 20-24 Inside Michigan 4.1 43 45 11
> 9 21-22 Fox News 3.5 44 46 9
>
> There is no Senate race in Michigan
>
> We are not following any House races in Michigan
>
> There is no governor's race in Michigan
>
> COMMENT: Kerry has once again moved into a commanding lead in
> Michigan. The main Arab-American organization in Michigan has endorsed
> Kerry, they endorsed Bush last time.
>
> BOTTOM LINE: As of 11 October, Bush leads in Missouri, but not by
> much, Florida is a tie but Kerry is gaining, Ohio moves in Kerry
> column, but not by much, Pennsylvania and Michigan are stronger for
> Kerry than last week. Must Win State count: Kerry 58, Bush 11, Tied
> 27. This change reflects how well Kerry did in the first debate, but
> does not include much from the VP debate or anything from the second
> Pres. debate.
>
> For comparison from last week:
> As of 4 October: Bush wins Missouri, Ohio and Florida; Kerry wins
> Pennsylvania and Michigan. Electoral Votes from these states: Bush
> 58, Kerry 38.
>
> We will update our master chart every day until Election Day with the
> new data for each category of state.
>
> CATEGORY DATE STATES TOT EV BUSH KERRY TIED
> Must Win 11 Oct 5 96 11 58 27
> Compensation 5 Oct 8 55 40 15
> Republican Cherries 6 Oct 5 44 44
> Democratic Plums 6 Oct 5 54 54
> Red States 7 Oct 18 142 142
> Blue States 8 10 147 147
>
> Total 51 538 239 264 27
>

[JCMach1]

1. kick

:kick:

TOO much good info. here.