NEW CNN/USAToday/Gallup: Kerry won Friday's debate; takes lead

[VolcanoJen]

Just reported on CNN:

---

Who did better job in second debate?

October 9-10
MoE = +/- 4.5% pts.

Kerry: 45%
Bush: 30%

Choice for President:

October 9-10
MoE = +/- 3% pts

Kerry
Likely Voters: 49%
Registered Voters: 48%

Bush
Likely Voters: 48%
Registered Voters: 48%

Nader
Likely Voters: 1%
Registered Voters: 1%

---

So, it looks as though Bush has lost one point since CNN/USAToday/Gallup's last poll, on October 3rd, which had the race at 49/49.

More importantly, don't forget the September 26 poll, which had Bush at 52 and Kerry at 44.

The debates have changed everything. :D :D :D

[michigandem2]

1. wow....that is surprising..

I thought Kerry whomped * but I dind't think that because of the day of the week the debate fell on..that we would get much from it becasue the spin-sters would be working overtime for *...YEEEHAAA!

[molly]

2. This is why Rove is getting uglier and uglier

[nine30]

5. Rove is pretty ugly as it is (nt)

[VolcanoJen]

8. I'm still waiting with bated breath for Rove's promised "surprise."

:eyes:

[951]

3. Gaah its too close to call!

I'm still undecided

We must remain resolute

I stand by my president

We're freeing the people of Iraq

Can we believe anything we read on the Internets?

[demzilla]

That photo is going to give me nightmares

and Coulter is AGAINST rights for the transgendered!?!?!?!?!?!?!

[okieinpain]

22. okay, who painted sideburns, and a goatee on ann.

[napi21]

4. OK, hhow are the madia whores going to play this one?

Surely they're not going to admit they were all WRONG!

[seabeyond]

6. cnn who cleansed their poll cause kerry was ahead

needs to see this poll. and their desire to create a falsity into an illusional truth

[My Pet Goat]

7. A tied Gallup poll...

is a lead for Kerry! WoooHooo !!! :toast:

Plus, CNN will have to deal with this since this poll is their favorite.

[okieinpain]

23. damn, straight no switching now.

[girl gone mad]

9. Kerry by 15.

Who thought it was a tie?

[My Pet Goat]

10. Yep...

I guess the initial Gallup debate "tie" has turned into a solid Kerry victory now that more survey data is in.

[Career Prole]

11. Hey CNN! Take your freeped on-line poll

and stick it where the truth don't shine! :D

[951]

12. But the freepers didnt do anything to the poll

CNN admited to changing it because it favored Kerry too much

[lancdem]

13. Kerry also went from 2 down among RVs in the previous CNN poll

to a tie.

[sonicx]

14. Cool, Gallup can still go fuck themselves tho

:D

[okieinpain]

27. god, I bet they hated putting this one out.

[Snubis]

15. Don't get too excited just yet

Remember, this is a weekend poll, which is typically Democrat friendly. Let's wait for polls coming out later in the week.

[lancdem]

18. Nice try

Just like all those weekend polls after the RNC showing Bush with a nice bounce were "Democrat-friendly"?

[Snubis]

43. No...

I don't believe Bush ever had a 11 point bounce. Plus, those polls heavily polled Republicans.

[Name removed]

24. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[tishaLA]

26. I seem to have heard that talking point somewhere before

Can someone remind me where it might have been.

Welcome to DU. Or something.

[Anaxamander]

41. Why are weekend polls "Democrat friendly"?

Because all the repukes are at the yacht club?

[Downtown Hound]

16. Do we know what the internals on this poll are?

If they overweighted their Republican respondents as usual, then Kerry has a really big lead.

[milkyway]

17. Good news, but I'd still like to know if the 30% who thought bush won

had watched the debate while on the same drugs bush was on.

[DaveinMD]

19. that 30 percent

are Republican loyalists.

[TheDonkey]

20. Looks good, lets see CNN whore this poll

glad many in the public didn't by bush's maniac mode.

[okieinpain]

21. I got a chance to listen to npr on break and the show is on the

surge of new voters. they didn't say that it was democratic leaning, but they did say that the majority is urban registeration. I feel sorry for bush, he's going to be a victim of his own doing.

[shelley806]

29. Sorry for Bush?

NEVER

[DemsUnited]

25. Link to new CNN/Gallup/USAToday poll

http://www.usatoday.com/news/politicselections/nation/polls/usatodaypolls.htm

[robbedvoter]

30. Interesting jom approval - in the minus again

[against all enemies]

28. For those obsessed with polls, 1980- Carter-Reagan tied in the polls.

Final vote Reagan 50% - Carter 41%. Kerry must keep pounding away on the Iraq mess and showing himself presidential. the votes will come if he can get it done, showing how much Bush has screwed up..

http://cgi.cnn.com/ALLPOLITICS/1996/analysis/back.time/9609/15/

[sonicx]

duh

we're just having fun with this, cuz Gallup had Bush up by 13 a few weeks ago (which was not a real lead, btw).

FREEFALL.

[StevenD]

49. I think the 1980 election

is probably a good historical precedent to 2004. We have an incumbent (p)resident who has foreign policy problems that he seems incapable of solving. We also have a poor economy with high gas prices just like 1980. Carter tried to paint Reagan as an extremist who couldn't be trusted, just as Bush is trying to paint Kerry. In the last few days of the election, there was a big swing to Reagan as the electorate (exclusive of yours truly) decided they could trust him. I won't be surprised is we see a five or six point swing to Kerry in the last few days of this election.

[On the Road]

31. Just Wish They Would Tell Us This Time

what percentage are Republican, Democratic, and independent. If it's consistent with recent polls (+7-10%), that looks a landslide.

[bush equals idiot]

32. A major development

is that the women are finally coming home to Kerry-land. Where they should have been in the first place.

[sonicx]

34. they never left

the polls in september were Republican leaning.

Think about it: Throughout september, Bush lead by double digits (in time, gallup, newsweek, and others).

Now, Kerry leads by 1-3. realistic?

[bush equals idiot]

37. No, no

the security moms were all huddling around Bush before the debates.

Euwuwwwwww. What a thought.

[sonicx]

39. lol

the smell got to them. :D

[CAcyclist]

47. I agree

The women never left. Far more women are democrats than repubs.

[shelley806]

33. Kerry Wins Debate

The debates have changed everything. That is why it is so important to continue vote online. I can't thank DU ers enough for the excellent linkage to the online voting booths! The media seems to favor Bush, but online voting results have to be reported. One thing I was so frustrated about though is the clear leads that Kerry/Edwards had in the online polls (except for the obvious Faux news, etc.) but the results they reported on CNN TV differed significantly until now. The Machiavellian Rove knows that what the media reports,does change peoples opinions, ergo Sinclair, etc.

[tritsofme]

35. Job Approval at 47%

That's the big number, that is radioactive for an incumbent just a few weeks before the election.

[59millionmorons]

36. Kerry also more likable and more honest

OUCH

[leftchick]

38. Thanks Jen Honey!!!

That is great news!!! :)

[Bongo Prophet]

40. Yes. The debates bypassed the Ozian curtain

Svengali BS exposed as such.

[TexasSissy]

42. Link? Cnn.com says Kerry 47% Bush 45%, virtual tie for 2nd debate.

So does Gallup.com.

Where did you get this? I don't doubt your post, but I sure would like a link.

[sonicx]

44. link

http://www.usatoday.com/news/politicselections/nation/polls/usatodaypolls.htm

[atre]

45. What are the internals as to party affiliation?

I bet at least some of this number is attributable to a more accurate reflection of the population, as in more Democrats polled than in prior polls (they had been using a 38-32-30 base to calculate the totals, skewing the numbers wildly in favor of Bush by assuming a Republican turnout that would be the highest since Reconstruction).

[senseandsensibility]

46. But it was a draw?

Right, mediawhores!:kick: Kick the good news, baby!

[mzmolly]

48. VERY encouraging.

OH PLEASE, OH PLEASE, OH PLEASE! ;)