Why is the Washington Post Poll such as outlier

[DaveinMD]

Gallup even has Kerry up by 1, but the Post has Bush up 6. What is going on with this poll.

[lancdem]

1. The race is still close enough

that there will be polls showing Bush ahead. They're probably interviewing more Repukes than the others.

[papau]

2. ABC and WaPo have same tracking data - But ABC is *+4, WaPo *+5

after the different likely voter screen that each uses.

At least both ABC tracking and WaPo tracking are both "unchanged"!

Meanwhile Zogby has the Kerry lead increasing to 3 points!

LOL

:-)

[DCal]

3. The Post has it tied among registered voters

Among registered voters (n=1525), it is 47-47, which is the closest it has been since the Post started their daily tracking a week ago.

At the same time, the likely voter sample (n=1205) has been going in the other direction. But it has 3% to 4% more Republicans than Democrats in it.

Registered Democrats were approximately 2.5 times more likely than Republicans to be excluded from the likely voter sample.