The race is NOT tied, just like the last debate was NOT a tie.

[TruthIsAll]

If it's tied at 47, that's Bush's ceiling.
It's Kerry's floor.

The 6% remaining undecided/other will go to Kerry by at least 2-1.
That means he's a winner.

Bush's job approval is at 49.25% (11 poll average).
That's means he's a loser. No one has EVER won the presidency with approval below 50%.

The media is trying their best to keep the illusion alive. The UN Oil for Food Scandal? Piling on Kofi Annan won't cut it. Not when we are still fighting the Bush War for Oil in Iraq.

It's almost a done deal.

On Wednesday, Kerry will close the book on Smirk.

http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/

[LittleClarkie]

1. Local radio pundits were trying to spin momentum turn for Bush

Repeating the "Bush was overprepared" talking point.

One guy was fairly honest and said that the first debate was by far the most watched, so any progress by Bush in the later ones might not help.

Another thought that Bush should quote more stats like Kerry does.

Another pointed out that Kerry voted against Bush Sr. and that war (yeah, well, Kerry's change of heart vis a vis the military didn't come into play until about 1997, so I can believe it)

And over the weekend I heard somebody whining about how the questions in the first debate were slanted against Bush.

Gads, it's good to see them on the defensive for once. Just like our excuses and complaints when Kerry seemed to be doing badly, all their complaints are just so much noise.

[Longhorn]

2. "Another thought that Bush should quote more stats like Kerry does."

That made me chuckle! I guess if he's got his wire in place, it's a possibility but I notice he tries to stay away from anything close to math as much as possible! :D

[FloridaPat]

3. I seem to remember that when * job approval were around 80%

the number of people who said they would vote for him was around 50%.

[beyurslf]

4. Close elections make better ratings...

[Joe Chi Minh]

17. They have

bigger fish to fry than ratings, all-important as they normally are.

[krkaufman]

19. More importantly... close elections...

... require candidates to do more advertising. And so more $$$$ to TV stations.

It's in the networks' and TV stations' financial best interest to make the election appear close.

[Joe Chi Minh]

20. Compared to the losses

that a breaking up of the big media groups, together with the re-enactment of the laws on fairness and the diminution of the media's partisan political clout, all of which will surely ensue, such financial gains now would scarcely register.

[wanpete]

5. It has been difficult...

but I have learned to turn the bs off! I don't watch cable news and local talk radio. The spin and lying was so ridiculous that it was affecting my blood pressure. I feel much better now, although it's still hard and sad to believe that our media has stooped to such utter lows. No longer can they be trusted as they are robots for their big corporate owners. Don't trust them! Just continue the fight and vote on 11/2. I'll be so glad when this is all over.:eyes:

[JohnnyFianna1]

6. Actually Harry Truman he had approval ratings of almost 25% in 1948

and we know how that story ended.

[Renew Deal]

8. That doesn't sound right.

Proof?

[TruthIsAll]

9. In that election, they stopped polling much too soon.

And I don't believe HST was ever that low. If he was, he could not have won by 51%-48%.

[Renew Deal]

7. I agree about the undecideds.

They don't want to vote for Bush. Kerry just has to convince them.

[John_H]

10. I used to have a quote from one of Chimp's pollsters saying that

rethugs generally need a 4 point lead on election day to overcome the Dem GOTV operation. Wish I could find it, since every KE press person in swing states should be repeating it often in red leaning swing states.Dems need to know that even if we're 3 points down in their state we can win easily if they head to the polls.

[txindy]

11. This election is too important to ignore, so I wish

the media would stop trying to make it seem closer than it is. It's not as if we're going to become complacent and stop paying attention! They will not lose ratings because of it. On the contrary, I have reduced my cable news watching because of their obvious bias and poor reporting. Telling the truth might...MIGHT bring me back. Right now, though, I get excellent news from the internet. The SCLM is expendable, as far as I'm concerned. This atttitude of theirs does them no favors. Just MHO, of course.

[prairie populist]

12. No doubt, something funky is going on.

The polls aren't showing it, but even in the Reps' stronghold in the Midwest, people are distancing themselves from their usual party of choice.

I personally know of at least a dozen people in rural (ie extremely Republican) Nebraska who last time voted for either Bush or Nader and this time are voting for Kerry. I don't know of anyone who last time voted for Gore who is switching to Bush this time around.

Also, a University of Nebraska poll released today showed that Lincoln and Lancaster County are heavily favoring Kerry. The rest of the state will probably, reluctantly, go Bush. But with the Electoral College system in place in Nebraska, Kerry should pick up at least one more in his column that nobody is factoring in. And that's just how things are in Nebraska, a place that is about as Red State as you can get.

Nobody is picking up on this polling-wise. Apparently they have already written of certain areas as done-deals and are not getting a feel for the genuine distrust and disgruntlement with the present administration.

[Awsi Dooger]

13. That 49.25% approval rating is too high for comfort

I really thought it was a point or two lower.

Kerry would win by maybe 2 points if the election were held today, just the opposite of two weeks ago. Six months ago I remember posting there was a 6 point sliding window of possibility, almost like a Price is Right game, between a 4 point Kerry win and 2 points for Bush. The realities of Iraq and the economy and candidate performance will determine where the game ends on November 2.

[Joe Chi Minh]

18. It wouldn't

be anything like as high. Why do you still believe the polls?

[tedoll78]

14. Have we ever had an election where one candidate wins all of the debates?

Because we're looking at a scenario where this could very well happen.

If Kerry wins this Wednesday, I'm fairly certain that he'll win the election. The media will be forced to report for the week after this last debate that Kerry won all three debates.. something that'll leave a HUGE impression on voters. Kerry's bounce will be extended for at least another two weeks from now, and then it'll just be up to us to keep him aloft across the finish line.

And it will not only be up to Kerry.. it will be in our hands as well. Whereas the first debate (on a Thursday) only gave the GOP 24 hours to spin before the weekend news cycle, and the second one gave them no real time to spin beforehand (a Friday), this one will give them a full 48 HOURS to turn the crap that Bush lays into a golden egg. We need to be there every step of the way fighting this, rockin' the online polling, writing emails to TV shows, snail mailing newspapers and TV stations, calling into radio programs to share our views, participating in polite conversation.. we will bear a great deal of the weight of this onto our own collective shoulders.

Our track record with the three debates so far suggests that we certainly can do this, but the GOP is really, really scared. They know that if they lose this election, the Supreme Court could be ours for a generation. They know that because of demographic change in this country, this election could signal the beginning of Democratic Electoral College dominance. They're fighting for their political lives, so I fully expect them to throw everything they've got at Kerry. And what could be more humiliating to them.. to die at the hands of a "Massachusetts liberal?!" Ha!

We can do this. We must.

[JCMach1]

15. Oil for food points back to Halliburton

http://www.thesyndrome.com/archives/00001158.htm

[TruthIsAll]

16. Oc. 20: Rumor that Kerry will unload a Bush/Iraq $ scandal

tia

[VDHark]

21. What's this all about?

I thought I heard something about this today... is this OUR October surprise?? Who got the money?? Halliburton?

[TruthIsAll]

22. I just saw the rumor in a post earlier today on DU. Oct. 20 is the day.

We will just have to wait and see.

Supposedly it involves Cheney, Bush, Halliburton, Sinclair, JADOO
and skimming the Food for Oil Program.

Mike Malloy talked about it tonight on Air America.