Which of the Upper Midwest States (IA, WI, MN) Are You Most Worried About?

[displacedyankeedem]

For me it's Wisconsin. I know that we're absolutely going to maul Bush in Hennepin and Ramsey Counties and ride that to victory. Plus I think we'll pick up some votes in the Western Minneapolis exurbs that Bush carried so easily four years ago.

My advisor here at university is from Iowa (and taught at the University of Minnesota-TC as well) and says that both of those are safe. However, he says that he has a bad feeling about Wisconsin this time around.

[Gabi Hayes]

1. wisconsin, definitely

forget MN; it's safe now

Iowa, probably safe

my sister is politically connected there, and says there's big mo there for Kerry

we'll see, though

[DarthDem]

2. Wisconsin

Luckily - - in a manner of speaking - - it really doesn't matter, because Kerry is unlikely to win without carrying OH or FL anyway (I think he'll do both). Winning either gets us to 270 assuming no other Gore state losses (and even a * win in NH), and that makes Wisconsin essentially moot. However, I don't think that WI is going to be a problem. They do have Feingold on the ticket to GOTV. There are a number of native Wisconsinites here who can provide much better insight; I can tell you that MI and PA are locked up, and I agree with you on MN and IA. I'm not concerned about those at all.

Note that I do recognize that Kerry can win with a "small" state strategy, racking up NV, AR, WV, etc., or some combination, but I'm thinking Ohio and Florida are more plausibly winnable every day.

[Lefty48197]

6. We have a few possible winning scenarios:

IF we win all of the states Gore won last time, then
1) Winning Florida wins it all for us.
2) Winning Ohio wins it all for us.
3) Winning Missouri wins it all for us.
4) Winning West Virginia AND Nevada wins it all for us.
Outside of those four possibilities, we would need a miracle to win it. Losing ANY of the Gore states, makes it very difficult, unless we win one or both of the biggies (FL and OH), to counter any losses.
Right now, Ohio seems to be our best bet.

Here's a link to a neat interactive map that helps sort this stuff out:
http://www.pbs.org/newshour/vote2004/politics101/politics101_ecmap.html

[DaveinMD]

3. WI

is the only such state that worries me, but it doesn't worry me much.

[DemocracyInaction]

4. Couple comments

I think Iowa will go to Kerry because of areas like Dubuque, Davenport, etc.; but I cannot figure out why we aren't a lot stronger there because of the Govenor. He must have political machine in place in order to have become govenor and of course, he was in prominence during the Kerry candidate selection. It was also Iowa were the big Kerry news first came about. Anyway, I'm counting on the political machine there to deliver the state.

I, too, am the most worried about Wisconsin. Christian right has gotten into too many places there. And probably too much flag waving to boot. Anyway, I haven't checked DU for several days (since about Thursday)----any new polls on Iowa, Minnesota and Wisconsin?????

[IowaGuy]

8. I can't figure out the polls here in Iowa, either.....

its not what I'm seeing on the ground. I can't think of a single constituency or demographic group that * has strengthened himself in,
his only positive that he has going for him is that Grassley is up for reelection and may have some coattails to haul * along.

If its any consolation, the polls were all wrong about Kerry @ caucus time too...I couldn't figure them out then either, didn't look like what I was seeing on the ground, just like now.

[HelpIsOnTheWayDamnit]

9. Iowa

If Iowa City is any indication of how the election would go it would be a landslide in IA for Kerry. The only thing keeping it from being this way is the highly republican western half of Iowa.

[Wickerman]

11. Welcome to DU, 'damnit!

Well, being I was raised in Iowa and spent College and a few years beyond in Iowas Cty I gotta say Iowa City ain't Iowa. But, as you say, I hear good reports in all but Western Iowa.

:thumbsup:

[babylonsister]

12. Welcome, HIOTW!

:hi:

[no name no slogan]

17. I hope you're right

Iowa City is a notoriously liberal city-- I wonder how he's doing in Des Moines or Ames? However, IIRC Kerry is up +4% in IA, which is a good sign.

(and :hi: from a northern neighbor!)

[newyawker99]

19. Hi HelpIsOnTheWayDamnit!!

Welcome to DU!! :toast:

[RetroLounge]

5. Kerry will win big in the cities

but he needs to narrow the margin in the rural area.

But I have hope. I attended the Kerry rally in Bloomer Wisconsin, and it was PACKED and loud and motivated.

K/E signs are popping up all over the suburn I live in (near Milwaukee) and I think all except the uniformed and ignorant (plus the fundies) will be going for Kerry. We lost more soldiers this week, and dead 19yr olds in the cause of NO WMD's does not look good for bush*.

Have faith.

of course, the right wing screechers on AM radio are already saying that Kerry will win due to Dem vote fraud.

RL

[Dreamsmith]

18. Urban/rural ratio in WI?

Kerry will win big in the cities... but he needs to narrow the margin in the rural area.

How does that cash out as a ratio? I know that in Minnesota, 60% (3 million out of 5) of the population lives in the Twin Cities. Add in other smaller cities that are nevertheless not exactly rural, and the rural vote turns out to be a fairly small factor (which is undoubtedly why MN tends Democratic -- despite huge expanses of nothing much, populationwise it's a predominantly urban state).

I've always had the impression (justified by nothing much other than what I've seen driving through it) that Wisconsin isn't quite as lopsided -- it's population is spread out a little more evenly. Don't know if I'm correct in that. How big a factor is the rural vote in Wisconsin?

[newyawker99]

20. Hi Dreamsmith!!

Welcome to DU!! :toast:

[shivaji]

22. WI has many high tech towns such as Fondulac, Milwaukee burbs,

and a whole bunch of towns along the Interstate. When I lived in Chicago, we drove thru entire wicconsin to get to the ski area in northern WI and upper Michigan, and there were small towns galore along the way.

[0007]

7. Wisconsin would be the choice, but I doubt that Wisconsin

will go for junior. These three will go for Kerry, no doubt about it!

[featherman]

10. All three have voted DEM for four straight elections

There is no particular reason why an idiot (I mean "a relatively unpopular Republican") like Bush would change that inclination. Some of the polls have been a little weird but I still like all three states to go DEM again by between 2-4%

[blackcat77]

13. Kerry supported a deal for NEastern dairy farmers...

...that is supposed to have pissed off people in Wisconsin. That might explain why his numbers seem a little down there. That's the state I worry about the most fo the three mentioned.

[demwing]

14. Is W for Wisconsin?

That's my concern - BUT...

Wisconsin's unemployment rate is slightly higher than the national average.

Wisconsin bankruptcies are up about 38% since 2000

Wisconsin voters can register to vote the same day that they vote, and pick party association at the polls - traditionally appealing to young voters.

The "New Voter's Project" in Wisconsin set out to register 85,000 18-24 year olds, and has so far registered about 110,000 young voters.

The polls may look soft, but Wisconsin has every reason to oust Bush.

[montana500]

15. Wisconsin nm

nm

[no name no slogan]

16. Minnesota is DEFINATELY Kerry Country!

Even though I'm in the city, I've driven around other parts of the states lately and have seen a lot of Democratic signs by the highways. In fact, we may even send two more Democrats to the House this year if things continue to go well.

Just a few weeks ago, I drove down a highway that bisects the southern part of the state-- which is very GOP/conservative. I saw a grand total of ONE lawn sign for a Repub candidate. I saw at least a dozen for K/E and for other Dem candidates.

I guess we're considered a "swing state" because we have a Repub governor and Gore only won by 2% in 2000. However, Nader took 6% in 2000, and just about all those votes will go for Kerry. Nader has little (if any) support here. The Green Party is a "major party" in MN, and I believe that David Cobb has been here and encouraged Greens to vote for K/E this year.

MN is A-OK, and will go blue. WI, OTOH, I'm not so sure....

[wellstone dem]

25. I regularly drive the road between MPLS

to St. Cloud (I94) and St. Cloud to Willmar (Hwy 23) Far more Bush signs than Kerry signs. (though the Kerry signs are coming.)

I was in St. Paul on Sunday for the Faith in Democracy rally and was really impressed by the # of Kerry signs, but we need Northern Minnesota, and the Red River Valley to come through, at least the St. Cloud area to the Southwest is shaky.

[no name no slogan]

27. St Cloud has been Republican for as long as I remember

Willmar, OTOH, is always a tossup. The west-central part of the state has never been good for the DFL. We've typically relied on the arrowhead and the metro area to win.

I used to live in the "Old 2nd" district back when it was basically SW Minnesota in the 1980s-- solid "Vin Weber Country". The DFL always struggled to remain viable there, and we could rarely get a decent candidate to run against Vin Weber. We usually offered up one sacrificial lamb after another (typically a pro-life farmer who didn't have a clue about campaigning), and got trounced by 20%+ each election.

Anything we get in western part of the state is a gimmee, IMHO. If we can get the range and the cities out and a portion of the burbs, we'll do okay.

[Zynx]

21. Over the long term, I'm worried about Minnesota.

I fear that in another twenty years, it will be a marginally Republican state.

[displacedyankeedem]

23. I just can't see it....

the land of Lake Wobegon also being the land of Jerry Falwell.

[nostalgicaboutmyfutr]

24. Canada

too bad they are not a state yet....i don't know a single canuck that would vote for *!

[Lefty Pragmatist]

26. Iowa

It was razor-thin last time, and will be this time, too.

If we lose either MN or WI that denotes national problems with the ticket that will cost us OH and the election.

Oh, BTW, forget the WV/AS strategy. Neither of those states is going to us. God, guns, and gay-bashing.

[WI_DEM]

28. Without a doubt, my homestate

Wisconsin. Iowa and Minnesota seem to be trending towards us, but most polls (Zogby excluded) seem to have Bush slightly ahead here.

[Jack_Dawson]

29. WI - People who wear cheese on their heads...

can't be that smart. Un-smart people love Shrub.

[louis c]

30. Wiscinson

Latest Rasmussen Numbers, as of today (10/12)

Iowa, Kerry 50%-46%

Minnesota, Kerry 48%-45%

Wisconsin, Bush 48%-45%

Which one would you be most worried about?