Zogby's internal tracking poll - the one you need a password to see...

[WilliamPitt]

has Kerry 3.4 points ahead nationally.

Zogby is the only poll I trust as far as I could spit a rat.

[dennis4868]

1. Why???

[WilliamPitt]

4. Why what?

Why do I trust it more than the others? Because we've interviewed the guy, and because his national numbers were right on the money in 2000.

When Zogby starts going state by state, his reliability wavers; he had Bush and Gore tied in California on the eve of the 2000 election, and Gore won the state by 1.5 million votes.

Nationally, however, he is more right than wrong.

Bear in mind that I hate all polls.

[AP]

8. CA was easy to mess up. The state party ran a KICK ASS GOTV effort that

shocked everyone. They did it in less than a month when the national party said that CA was too close for comfort. No polling model could have predicted the enthusiasm that was percolating up from people who were unlikely voters.

[tritsofme]

17. Agree completely

Zogby's national polls are rock solid, but his state polls are suspect.

[kanrok]

2. Seriously...

How far can you spit a rat?

[WilliamPitt]

6. Not far

Ptoo...splut.

[Catch22Dem]

3. Every time I try to put a rat in my mouth

I can never get it in all the way. What's your secret anyway? ;)

[kanrok]

12. Y'know

when you spit a rat, you don't have to put all of it in your mush. Just enough to get a good purchase...then spit really hard. You're welcome.

[Catch22Dem]

15. That's where I've been screwing up

I was trying to get the whole rat in there so I could kinda...you know..."hock" it up.

[maine_raptor]

16. Is this where

the phrase "Gives a Rat's Ass" comes from?

Just asking?

[Gold Metal Flake]

21. The question is... is it "ptoo", or "ptui"?

Or, better yet, how would Don Martin spell it?

Thanks for the reassurance, Will. Kerry in a landslide.

[maine_raptor]

25. All I can say is

thank God we only have one mouth, cause I'd hate to have to figure out the pural of "ptoo".

[choie]

29. How to put a rat in your mouth?

That's a toughie. Maybe we could ask the woman found in the car with David "Sinclair Group" Smith?


(Sorry.)

[sonicx]

5. will

In Zogby, what's Kerry's support among democrats and independents (and bush's support among repukes)?

[arwalden]

7. Is That Enough Of A Lead...

... that it can't be lost in the Electoral College process?

Even if we had 100% of the vote in California and NY we could still lose it by losing critical states right?

-- Allen

[ibegurpard]

9. Yeah

we need to see a state-by-state breakdown. However, this has value in molding perception and increasing momentum.

[maine_raptor]

10. The hell with the poll

I just want to know which end you use when you spit a rat?

Seems like if you use the head you gotta take a chance the damn thing will latch onto your tongue before you can get'em outta there, as for using the other end..........I don't want to go there?

(but nice news on the poll)

Psst, Know the odds on the ALCS?

[Nevernose]

20. Think for a second, Maine Raptor

Use a dead rat. Personally, I prefer them pickled.

[maine_raptor]

23. Hmmmmmmmmmm I suppose, but

seems like a lot of trouble to go through (killing the damn thing) just to spit it out. Besides it's not like them sritters are endangered or somethin'

[BeatleBoot]

11. Zogby is THE Poll

Its a highly reliable, scientific poll.

And good scientific polls don't lie (Rule # 1 of Politics).

They predicted 2000 better than anyone else.

[RevCheesehead]

13. Has anyone heard from TIA lately?

I don't understand the dynamics of statistics, but Truth usually has pretty good news to report.

My computer blew up after the VP debates, and I just got back on-line yesterday...I'm still trying to catch up.

[TruthIsAll]

26. Right Here. Trust Zogby. Trust ARG. Trust the Economist. Trust TIA

http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/

I've got a new home page with links to the model, an explantion of the methodologies, and some favorite links.

Got wood? Try it.

[RevCheesehead]

28. Thanks, Truth!

Added to my favorites - will check it often!

[evilqueen]

32. Excellent

Bookmarked. :)

Thank you.

[Lefty Pragmatist]

14. Zogby is quite Dem-friendly

but his arguments and methodology seem reasoned to me.

I would say if you throw Zogby and Rasmussen (GOP-friendly but also honorable.. for example, they ripped the Time poll that had Bush by 12) together and take the mean, you've got a solid poll.

[Tatiana]

18. If you must follow polls, Zogby would be the most accurate, IMO.

His samples are better, and he was pretty much on the mark in 2000.

This is good news.

[endnote]

22. He also got the D primaries right on target

I remember he predicted a Kerry win when many people still believed Dean would win in NH...

[0007]

19. An excellent article! Bravo * * * * *

"Almost 40,000 human beings in total are either dead or damaged, sacrificed on the altar of George W. Bush's lies. How many new names, words and phrases have entered the American lexicon since this began? Shock and Awe. Valerie Plame. Abu Ghraib. Yellowcake. PNAC."

"Shame on this administration for exploiting our fears after September 11 in order to get this war....."

" Shame on any American who continues to support this administration and its policies. Shame on us all if these policies are allowed to continue after November. No administration, in the history of the nation, has been less deserving of support or approval than the one which currently fouls the corridors of power in Washington D.C."

more....

As always, another great must read article.

http://www.truthout.org/docs_04/101204A.shtml

[Rose Siding]

24. Does that one break down with Bush 9pts over Kerry in the youth vote?

I'm very suspicious of that one- Olberman reported it.

[Teaser]

27. Wasn't this released this morning?

Or does Zogby release his samples to you guys the night before he releases it publicly?

[Rowdyboy]

30. Thanks, Will...Zogby has historically been heads above the others

Please keep the updates coming (I, sadly, can't afford the premium service anymore).

[ButterflyBlood]

31. is this from his real polls and not online ones?

n/t