Leftcoaster: Yesterday's Gallup Poll had GOP Advantage- Once Again!

[flpoljunkie]

Leftcoaster shows that it's not quite the "dead heat" that the networks yearn for, after all.

http://www.theleftcoaster.com/

Tuesday :: Oct 12, 2004

Yesterday's Gallup Poll Had GOP Advantage - Once Again

Yesterday, Gallup released a new poll for USA Today and CNN, which showed a tightened race in both of their registered voter (RV) and likely voter (LV) results. It turns out that the RV and LV results, showing a 49%-48% Kerry lead amongst LVs, and a 48%-48% tie amongst RVs, were once again based on samples that contained more Republicans than Democrats.

This is the information I obtained from Gallup this morning:

Likely Voters

Likely Voter Sample Party ID – Poll of October 1-3
Reflected Dead Heat 49%-49%

Total Sample: 772
GOP: 220 (35%)*
Dem: 245 (39%)*
Ind: 175 (26%)*

*Repercentaged as party ID was not asked of every respondent and interviewers called back to ascertain this information from missed respondents.

Likely Voter Sample Party ID – Poll of October 9-10
Reflected Kerry Winning by 49%-48%

Total Sample: 793
GOP: 302 (38%)
Dem: 269 (34%)
Ind: 219 (28%)

Note that last week’s poll after the first debate had a historically more supportable 4% Democratic advantage in party ID, and Kerry had pulled into a tie with Bush amongst LVs. This, after trailing him allegedly by 8% amongst LVs with a sample that had a 12% GOP advantage before the first debate.Now Gallup is telling us that after the second debate, where Gallup’s own poll shows that Kerry won as well, Kerry has eked out a 1% lead over Bush amongst LVs, using a sample with a 4% GOP advantage.

[Downtown Hound]

1. Not surprising

CNN and Gallup must be getting frustrated. All their whoring and Bush is still losing.

[Mike L]

2. What does the survey sample show when adjusted to the

2000 turnout of 39% Dems and 35% Repukes? Anyone done that?