Kerry 49% to Bush 48% amongst likely voters...

[kentuck]

According to Gallup. However, if he is leading amongst likely voters, what about the voters who are registering for the first time or those who have not tended to vote on a regular basis? I would guess they would go for Kerry by a large majority. If that is the case, I think we may be looking at a 3 - 5 point advantage for John Kerry. If...if...the Gallup poll is correct?

[underpants]

1. 47%

is and always has been W's number. That is the best he can do...now WHERE he gets that total is another whole story.

I am not one to make predictions but I just talked to a co-worker and on the fly I said 54-45-1 Kerry wins. I think that is a good number right now but there is a lot of time to go.

[H2O Man]

2. two things (both good)

#1: Craig Crawford just pointed out on MSNBC that since 1950, any president who won a second term had an approval rating of 54% or higher. Bush is significantly lower than that. Crawford pointed out that things are building up in favor of Kerry, and that Bush "needs to score a knockout in Wednesday's debate" or face defeat.

#2: The most recent WaterMan Poll shows Kerry building a large lead among the "undecided" voters in the last ten days. At this pace, the election will be a clear Kerry-Edwards victory, and a humiliating defeat for Bush-Cheney.

[HFishbine]

3. It's gonna be close