October Surprise-- Looks like it's the Iraq Offensive

[Mike L]

I recall that Chimp's numbers increased 4-5 points in early April when the 'Battle of Fallujah' started. His numbers decreased later when the operation was stopped. I know that the lemmings have a tendency to "rally round the Commander-in-Chief" when a crisis occurs. The April 'Battle of Fallujah' was enough to cause this effect. I'm afraid that Rove saw this in April and is using it now.

I also saw the "leak" recently in which an administration official said the battles to retake Sunni cities would be put off until after the election because the US casualties would adversely affect Bush. I'm thinking it was an intentional leak designed for the Kerry camp to take the bait. They did and accused Bush of playing politics with Iraq. Now that Kerry's camp has made that statement, it can't say anything about the current Iraq Offensive.

[aquart]

1. As October Surprises go, it really sucks.

Really, really sucks.

[lancdem]

2. I don't see this helping Bush

It doesn't change the fundamental problems in Iraq.

[Mike L]

3. Read my first paragraph again. You are thinking too rationally.

He only needs a short-term psychological bump. Shrub can keep the Offensive going for three weeks and the news from Iraq helps rather than hurts.

[salinen]

4. your statement

"lemmings have a tendency to "rally round the Commander-in-Chief" when a crisis occurs" is only partially correct.

They love to know that death and destruction are happening to brown people who think it's their oil.