Rasmussen Battleground for 10/12 (A Little Better News)

[louis c]

Rasmussen National 3 day tracking has Bush at 47.4% to Kerry at 45.8%. This is a full 2 point Kerry gain from yesterday. With "Leaners" included, Bush's lead is exactly 1 point at 48.5% to 47.5%.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com

However, Zogby's numbers trended the other way, with Bush picking up 3 points from yesterday to make it a dead heat at 45%.

http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=883

Rasmussen 7 day rolling averages for 5 key battleground states are:

Florida, Bush 49%-45% (This is unchanged from yesterday)

Michigan, Kerry 50%-46% (This is unchanged from yesterday)

Minnesota, Kerry 48%-45% (This is a 1 point Kerry gain from yesterday)

Ohio, Bush 50%-46% (This is a 1 point Kerry gain from yesterday)

Pennsylvania, Kerry 47%-45% (This is unchanged from yesterday)

Also, good news out of Iowa. Rasmussen's one week polling data from Iowa has Kerry 50%-46%. That's a 7 point gain for Kerry from last week, where Bush had the lead 48%-45%.

In Wisconsin, the one week polling data has it Bush 48%-45%. Essentially unchanged from a week ago which was Bush 49%-46%.

[sonicx]

1. read this interesting news about the new Gallup poll

http://www.mydd.com/

Sure, the Gallup poll released yesterday showed a dead heat among RV's and a slight Kerry advantage among LV's, but that does not mean it was a good, or even pro-Kerry poll. As always, Steve Soto is on the case:

Likely Voter Sample Party ID - Poll of October 1-3
Reflected Dead Heat 49%-49%
Total Sample: 772
GOP: 220 (35%)*
Dem: 245 (39%)*
Ind: 175 (26%)*

*Repercentaged as party ID was not asked of every respondent and interviewers called back to ascertain this information from missed respondents.

Likely Voter Sample Party ID - Poll of October 9-10
Reflected Kerry Winning by 49%-48%
Total Sample: 793
GOP: 302 (38%)
Dem: 269 (34%)
Ind: 219 (28%)

So, Kerry gained a point in a poll where Republicans gained eight points on Democrats. It does not take a genius to figure out the true trendline.

[louis c]

2. Kick

[jefferson_dem]

6. I'll take that breakdown any day! Thanks for sharing.

:bounce:

[louis c]

3. Kick for after supper crowd

[louis c]

4. kick again

[louis c]

5. and again