Zogby password poll: Race tied at 45%, Independents split at 39%

[WilliamPitt]

President Bounces Back Into Dead Heat Race with Senator Kerry; Race Tied at 45%; Loyalists Rally Behind Candidates; Independents Split at 39%, New Reuters/Zogby Poll Reveals

(Utica, NY)- President George W. Bush has bounced back into a dead-head race with Senator John Kerry. The race for the White House is now tied at 45% for each candidate, according to a new Reuters/Zogby daily tracking poll. The telephone poll of 1223 likely voters was conducted from Saturday through Monday (October 9- 11, 2004). The margin of error is +/- 2.9 percentage points.

[MissouriTeacher]

1. 45% for the incumbent.

Bad, bad news. :)

[TruthIsAll]

13. You mean good, good news, don't you?

heheheh

Kerry will win the big MO.

[lancdem]

2. An incumbent at 45 percent is in bad shape

[Worst Username Ever]

3. Has an incumbent who has been tied 3 weeks before an election ever won?

[Zynx]

4. Nope. In fact, the last incumbent to be in this position was Carter.

Bush's dad was also close in mid October.

[Worst Username Ever]

6. Hm. So what happened to those two?

HEHE :D

[Nederland]

10. In 88 or 92?

[foo_bar]

15. polling history isn't informative

2000 was decided by a mass of thugs, not to mention Miami.

[MissouriTeacher]

5. Good question.

Incumbents who win tend to win big.

[lancdem]

7. Exactly

[wadestock]

8. William....electoral college has been progressively getting better....

with some possible exceptions like Ohio in this latest electoral college count below......but all and all showing positive Kerry swing....

I've followed this daily....the daily comments are a must read...

http://www.electoral-vote.com/

[WilliamPitt]

9. .

[WilliamPitt]

11. .

[TruthIsAll]

12. The election model has it 47.80% Kerry, 46.65% Bush.

Kerry is projected to get 323 EV and 51.13% of the popular vote with a 98% win probability (based on a conservative undecided allocation of 60%).

In order for Bush to win, he will have to rig the BBV's.

http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/

[Jax]

14. "password poll"

bullshit pitt.

real people.

not "password polls".

Jax

[Lexingtonian]

16. it gets better

Incumbents tend to get their 'approval' percentage on Election Day. The more respectable pollsters have W at 46-47% 'approval' with Likely Voters.

Assuming (optimistically) that the pollsters are using voter lists that include the new Republican registrations through August, these numbers spell out: DEAD MEAT.