10/12 ELECTION MODEL: KERRY 323 EV, 98% WIN PROB, 51.13% OF THE VOTE

[TruthIsAll]

http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/

[robcon]

1. I think we have to be realistic...

I don't think any poll with an "assumption" of 60% of undecided/other vote is valid. It is a "model" of the election, but it depends crucially on unsupported assumptions, IMO. I think the election is close, and either man could win it.

Kerry 260 Bush 274
http://www.electoral-vote.com/

Bush 264 Kerry 233
http://www.dalythoughts.com/ecb.htm

New York Times
Leaning/strongly for Bush: 232
Leaning or strongly for Kerry: 221
Swing states: 85
http://www.nytimes.com/packages/html/politics/2004_ELECTIONGUIDE_GRAPHIC/

Slate Magazine
Bush: 215 solid, 137 close
Kerry: 153 solid, 33 close
http://slate.msn.com/id/2106527/

edit: add 'model' sentence

[undercover_brother]

2. you partypooper. I was feeling all giddy

[TruthIsAll]

3. You are being unrealistic by failing to appreciate the Incumbent Rule.

Do you suspect a majority will go for Bush? On what basis?

The fact is that the challenger has historically won the undecided vote.

60% is conservative..75% is more likely.

Any professional pollster will tell you the same thing.

Read this:
http://unfutz.blogspot.com/2004/09/how-undecideds-break.html


And this:
An incumbent who can’t break 50 percent is in trouble, even if he’s ahead.

http://www.prospect.org/web/page.ww?section=root&name=ViewWeb&articleId=8694

[rockymountaindem]

4. The 60-40 break of undecideds against the incumbent is supported.

History shows that this is usually what happens.

[blue neen]

5. All the people I know who registered this year are voting for Kerry.

That's a considerable number. I personally don't know one new registrant who is voting for Shrub.

Thanks for the uplifting news, TIA.