KERRY Campaign Pulling Out of Missouri (Bad Move, IMO)

[liberalpragmatist]

Already, Missouri was removed from advertising, but now we're getting word that the campaign is basically abandoning Missouri (both campaigns) and ceding the state to Bush. KOS reports this on his blog, which lists spending and lists where campaigns are spending, and I'm also involved with the College Dems at Wash U. Apparently Victory 2004, the DNC organization, is also pulling out.

This is a very stupid move in my opinion. I realize that in a close race, one has to consolidate resources and sometimes you have to abandon states. A race is less what states it's possible to win in than it is what states one can win in most easily and get the most out of. But operating by that standard should make the Kerry campaign withdraw from places like Louisiana, North Carolina, and Arizona (sorry DU'ers from those states - but Kerry's not polling well in any of those states). But pulling out of Missouri and Arkansas, where he's within striking distance (and to a lesser extent, Virginia) strikes me as extremely stupid. Kerry is only down by 1 or 2 points in most of the recent Arkansas and Missouri polls and there are a huge number of new registrations in the St. Louis area. Moreover, Missouri is a key state - almost every election this century except for 1956 had Missouri voting for the winner. And don't forget that Missouri adds a well-needed cushion. The Gore states from 2000 (+NH, which is practically ours) and Missouri = victory, even without Ohio or Florida, or, alternately, a Missouri win could offset a loss in Wisconsin.

I really hope Missouri goes blue in 3 weeks, but I really hope this isn't going to be shades of Gore-Ohio 2000.

[fujiyama]

1. Agree

There's no point in keeping resources in the states you mentioned (La? wtf?, Az, and NC) are lost causes. Most recent AZ polls show Bush winning by double digits. The polls may be exagerrating the lead, but I don't think Kerry has a good chance there. Several La polls showed Kerry 8 points behind...and NC was always a longshot. Bush won the state last time by 15% or so in '00.

I understand why it may seem as though Mo is lost. Bush has been leading in polls for the last month or so. However, this state is always close. It was within 4% 4 years ago. The senate race in '02 was also very close.

OH, MO, NV, and FL....are all states Bush won that the Kerry campaign should not let go...but recent polls show Bush to have got some sort of bounce from the hurricanes in FL.

[SoCalDemocrat]

3. Remember the IQ quotient

The lower the average state IQ, the more likely it is to vote Republican. Missouri I believe is low on the list. I interpret this as meaning the less educated the voter, the more easily manipulated by the more effective right wing campaign tactics.

[Gore1FL]

4. As a Missourian

I can tell you it has more to do with outstate than anything else.

two things are going to determine if MO goes Red or Blue:

How many in the outstate (especially SW Missouri) vote

AND

How many in St. Louis and Kansas City vote.

On Edit: I would pull out too if I were Kerry. MO is a coin toss at this point, and there is little that will effect the outcome.

[ollie3]

33. dumb one, are you trying to piss of the folks in MO?

No way to win an election! Tell folks in MO they are dumb. Incredible. I lived in MO for 15 years. Your statement is simply not true. If you have a tendency to look down your nose at others, why don't you join the Republican Party?

[Cha]

20. I can't believe Florida is going to

scumbag! I read yesterday on DU that bush was buying the Miami area with fema money..but come on ..all the Dems on the groud there getting new registration?! :-(

[KharmaTrain]

2. This Is Week By Week

The Kerry folks have tracking polls several days ahead of what we're seeing and I think they're conserving resources for the last 7-10 days.

Remember, all Kerry can spend now is from his limited Federal funds (he didn't opt out, remember...and some will say that opened the door for the slimeboaters). They're keeping a close watch on the money so they're not faced with some major deluge (like the possible fall-out of an October Surprise) and are caught of cash to stay on the air in key areas.

TV time gets more expensive the closer you get to election day and harder to come by...so it becomes a bazaar where the most money gets on the air, and it's not certain yet where the best place to spend that money is.

It might go to Ohio...and to blanket the state you also have to advertise from Detroit, Louisville and Wheeling, W. Va. The costs go way up.

Here's hoping in the last week you see Kerry spots on St. Louis TV...that means the state is really in play. But then, maybe we won't need to because someone's polling say there'll be enough votes in the East...Ohio, NH plus a couple other red states where Missouri isn't as critical now as it once was.

[deckerd]

8. Let me get this straight... Kerry camp TOTALLY FAILS

to capitalize on his Missouri remark during the second debate --

The one in which he said Missouri would be the 3rd largest
coalition power in Iraq --

TOTALLY FAILS to stump there after the debate --

And he thinks he can simply get elected by a majority of Missourians?

That he can just expect them to choose on the basis of ads, like the
latest ad he's failing to respond to, the "nuisance" ad? Missouri is
the bellwether state... any movement towards * is probably a leading
indicator of trouble everywhere else, NOT a sign Missouri is moving out of range!!

What's happening is Shrum and Cahill are asserting control behind the scenes...
I have HEARD the Dem talking heads coming out saying Kerry MUST stop talking
about Iraq, that the American people support the war and he can only win by
talking about the economy which is totally asinine... It's just what they said
in 2002. This is the Dem Strategy that the Dean campaign rejected utterly.
They are trying to return the Dem party to what they see as its institutional role.

Kerry would NOT BE IN THIS RACE were it not for Iraq. And claiming Joe Blow is worse off
than he was two years ago in the depths of the * recession, is just patronizing and pandering.

And of course Hillary's called off the Big Dog from even a single appearance in
Arkansas... God knows one appearance would be terrible for his health, it's not like
we have technology preventing him from having to shout, or even stand up... the
vultures in the DLC are doing their utmost to betray Kerry at the finish line.

[Julien Sorel]

13. LOL.

It must have killed you people having to shut the fuck up since the first debate.

This is the Dem Strategy that the Dean campaign rejected utterly.


I have to admit I stopped reading at this point...


If only the armchair strategists on DU and Howard Dean could run Kerry's campaign. He'd be up by 10 points, more worried about cabinet posts and the like than debate prep and campaigning. Oh well. Guess the campaign will have to make do with the foolish hacks Kerry moronically signed on.

It sure would be nice to have Howard Dean, and his brilliant record of electoral success, running things though.

[AndyTiedye]

14. Trouble Is Right. The Media is the Trouble

> Missouri is the bellwether state... any movement towards * is probably
> a leading indicator of trouble everywhere else,

Which is why he may need to spend the money to shore up everywhere else.

The repubs have unlimited access to the media, while Dems have to
pay for every second. Sounds like trouble to me.

[KharmaTrain]

29. Maybe We Should Ask When The GOOP WIll Be Pulling Out

A great question I heard asked...at first we snickered, but then it may not be that crazy.

This person has said, you can gague the campaign as to where Bunnypants and Crashcart are...those are areas where their polls are slipping. Notice a month ago, he was runing around Michigan & Minnesota, then to Iowa and Oregon...now it's Missouri, North Carolina, Arizona, Colorado...All RED states.

Except for Pennsylvania, he's almost exclusively in won in 2000 and has to work hard in holding the ones he has. If this continues, it's time to start measuring draperies and plan on the evicition of these squatters.

The last line of defense for this regime is their puppy-dog media, and even then we're not hearing the adulation and idol-worship of not that long ago. No, they're not anywhere near as fair or critical of this asshole than they should have been and this won't be forgotten by many of us. However, you're starting to hear these hacks speak the unspeakable...Bunnypants may not win.

As Senator Kerry said, "Bunnypants is in denial", but so are many others in his campaign.

[RaleighNCDUer]

36. Did they come up with stats showing a razor thin margin of

undecided? If all but 1% have made up their minds, and the campaign resources are limited, there's no need for the national campaign to expend resources there. Let the local races do maintenance, and the national campaign put its money where they can change more minds.

As Gore1FL said, if it's really a coin toss, throwing money at it won't change anything. I know that no Bush ad is going to change my mind. Focus on the undecided, the waverers, the repubs who just can't stomach another 4 years of Bush. If that demographic doesn't exist in MO, bye-bye.

[Cha]

24. Coulda, Woulda, Shoulda!

This is the race we're IN and Dean is behind Kerry all the way..AND we're going to Win!

[Selwynn]

44. Umm - I disagree that talking about the economy is patronizing!

"And claiming Joe Blow is worse off than he was two years ago in the depths of the * recession, is just patronizing and pandering." :wtf:

Well, claiming that Jow Blow is worse off than he was four years ago and has been worse off overall since * took office is not. It is just plain fact and having the first president to actually LOSE JOBS in 75 years is a big fucking deal, and making this year ALL about Iraq and not about the equally serious problems we face at home is ridiculous.

Bush is a miserable failure on every front. Iraq is certainly a serious issue, but so are the number of people still out of jobs, the number of people - like people I know - who would not be able to say that somehow they are "better off" now than they were two years ago.

And by the way, if there were NO IRAQ in the picture at ALL it would be KERRY IN A LANDSLIDE - because no president ever wins re-election when the economy is down. With the numbers that just came out on jobs, and the first president to lose jobs during his first term in years, and a history that says that the state of the economy has been a direct factor in every presidential election in the last 100 years, if we were so wrapped up in fear of terrorism and a country where 50% of the people believe that the Texas all hat no cattle swagger of Bush is most desirable to "protect" a nation, there would be nothing else to divert attention to but the economy.

[Selwynn]

45. PS - right now I sit at home having "forced time off work" thanks to Bush

and his enconomy. Our site is shutting down random sections for random periods of time to cut costs.

Not as bad as a full lay off, but just another effect of bush's utter failure in the last four years.

[Cha]

22. Thanks for your interesting analysis,

Radio! Always good to read.

[debatepro]

31. Outside Groups are picking up the slack

There are several GOTV campaigns by outside groups. I heard that over 100,000 new African American voters have been registered in MO. Its up to the "independent" groups to pick up the slack. Plus i don't think that all of Kerry's MO references in the last debate were in vain.

[KharmaTrain]

40. We Can't Rely on 527's anymore...

We're into the ground game now. The real votes to be won are door-to-door, phone calls and follow-ups. It's gonna be which party reaches these people and can get them to the polls.

I thought the Missouri pandering on a national debate may have may a few local points but were completely lost on the rest of us. Other than someone who eats & breathes History Channel, who would know about Dred Scott (especially a nincompoop like Bunnypants). If votes are won and lost in those kind of references, they weren't solid votes to start with and start aren't.

Hopefully the Democrats in Missouri are ready to work harder, not less, to really make the state "Show Me"...and the rest of us. Here's special encouragement to those in the middle of the state...Columbia, Rolla, Springfield, Joplin & St. Joes...to keep up the hard work, you're not forgotten, we just have a lot of ground to cover and three precious weeks to do it.

[Awsi Dooger]

5. Idiotic move

Missouri has trended slightly Republican after '92, but nothing significant. It was less than 3 points more GOP than the national popular vote average in '96 and less than 4 points GOP in 2000. There is ZERO CHANCE, for example, the Republicans would concede a similar state that was trending somewhat away from them.

And this just makes Missouri more difficult to rescue in the future. In Ohio, for example, how many people would have already registered and voted Democratic in one presidential election if Gore had not abandoned it prematurely in 2000?

Less margin for error automatically means less chance for victory, not greater. Saturation can be the first step toward drowning.

I may focus too much on state historical trends, but there is no way we should ignore them in favor of total reliance on current state polls. In 2000, for instance, there were four states that made no sense for Gore not to pursue further, based on how close they were to 50/50 partisanship -- Ohio, Nevada, New Hampshire and Louisiana. All had demonstrated they were less than 3% more GOP than the nation as a whole, but only in New Hampshire did we make a big effort, although not as much as I preferred. Ohio is universally decalred as a blunder, Louisiana was all but abandoned and in my home state of Nevada the Yucca issue screamed as a Bush nightmare, much more than in 2004, but Gore hardly visited at all and the TV ads were a huge percentage in favor of Bush.

[On the Road]

42. Gore Used His Resources Very, Very Well

He hit all the swing states in the last couple of weeks and won almost all the contested swing states. Bush made stupid decisions like visiting NJ and CA and squandered what he thought was a clean win.

[deckerd]

6. Totally Asinine...I predicted this but the judo chess players said NOOO

They asserted that Kerry's strategists FORGOT more about campaigning
than us mortals will ever know. Well that's comforting. It certainly shows!!

They ALSO asserted that we didn't need states where Kerry would be
forced to pander to "rednecks".

"And besides," they always went on to say, "I don't think they're
REALLY pulling out of Missouri and Arkansas. This is a strategic
move. TRUST the Kerry campaign."

Well, which is it, judo chess morans?

Kerry just lost the election IMO. Watch him withdraw from Ohio if
* surges there (as he did until the first debate) and pour all his
resources into FLA just like Gore did.

Tell the "Kerry in a Landslide" folks to read this thread. Their hopes
for a landslide are officially over with the DNC decommissioning their
GOTV apparatus in Ark and Missouri, having already done so in WV and
the South.

This means all Kerry has to do is lose TWO GORE STATES and it will be impossible for him to win without both Ohio AND Florida. Like I said,
the election just ended. There are only one or two possible scenarios
where Kerry wins

[Democat]

7. We need to fight for the big picture, not just a slim electoral victory

The war is long - Kerry needs to win and we need to work on the states that are close.

Pulling out is idiotic unless they are completely out of money or something else we don't know about.

This is not a short term fight, it's a war that will last longer than our lifetimes. We should not give up on any states that are close!

[deckerd]

9. Too Late -- Shrum is firmly in control

They are now following the exact strategy Gore pursued, putting
all their eggs in one large state (which will not be enough to
counter the loss of WI + one other Gore state, no matter how small).

Forget Landslide.

This deals a death blow to any strategy of winning with a mandate, or winning with enough coattails to win the Senate. Kerry has ceded everything south of the Mason Dixon line to *, no matter what happens.

Even the turnout operations are being shut down. DFA Little Rock -- disbanded.

For all we know, those know it all "white" turnout organizations took over GOTV
so they could selectively disband "loss-making" units and save money.

I suspect Kerry knows Rove has a really damaging October Surprise and
is bluffing about having something on Bush. Perhaps they found out
what they were counting on was forged by Rove. Perhaps DLC and the
hawkish, statist Dems in Congress are simply stabbing Kerry camp in
the back. Somethings not right with the tenor of this campaign, given
where Kerry is in the polls compared to a week ago.

[nolabels]

10. On the other hand, you might need to buttress your effect..........

somewhere else, the electoral college is a winner take all. These folks didn't start playing tidily-winks yesterday. I think its a good idea for all three reasons

[deckerd]

11. What'll they do with the money they saved, waste it on

already saturated airtime in Ohio? Waste it on GOTV efforts that
groups like MoveOn and DFA SHOULD BE doing in Ohio AND Arkansas??

Clearly the Dems are following the campaign finance law, because
we're looking at the opposite of coordination here.

[nolabels]

12. Arkansas maybe

Wednesday, October 06, 2004
Update: Arkansas
Posted by rob

The latest from Zogby gives Kerry a 0.2% lead in Arkansas (46.9% Kerry vs. 46.7% Bush). This is a good sign that the recent Bush surge in the state has come to a halt (the last few polls had Bush pulling out in front.) It's also a good sign because Arkansas is an important swing state: It's six electoral votes could prove to be important in getting Kerry over the hump of the 270 EVs needed to win the election in certain scenarios where the five EVs of Nevada, New Mexico, or West Virginia would leave Kerry with only 269 EVs.

It appears that the fight to keep Nader off the ballot in Arkansas is now dead, after the Arkansas Supreme Court ruled Friday, by a 4-3 margin, to overturn a circuit court's ruling that the "signatories who petitioned for Nader's name to be on the ballot had not declared him as their candidate." However, Nader received only 1.46% of the popular vote in 2000 in Arkansas, and I'm not so sure there won't be more Republicans than Democrats casting their vote for Nader this time around.

Overall, I'd say that things look pretty positive in Arkansas: There's a strong ground campaign, lots of attention on the grand opening of the Clinton Presidential Center in 42 days, and I've noticed an increase in support for Kerry in the letters section of the state's largest newspaper, the Arkansas Democrat-Gazette. Michael Moore was in the state Sunday to speak in front of a packed audience at a local University, and he allowed the sister of deceased Beatle George Harrison to say a few words on her disagreement with the war in Iraq. (This sort of stuff plays big in Arkansas!)

Finally, I want to note that the SSP was mentioned in an article on the front page of the Democrat-Gazette (unfortunately, it's subscription only). The article was about the Democrats successfully deploying a larger number of out-of-state ground troops in Arkansas than the GOP. Here's an excerpt:

For those who want to participate in such up-close politics, several Internet sites have popped up this election season, designed to enable volunteers to travel with ease into swing states across the country both to register voters and, now, after most registration deadlines have passed, participate in getout-the-vote efforts.

Most of those Web sites, including drivingvotes.org, swingstateproject.com, moveon.org and swingthestate.org, which advertises itself as the "anti-Bush travel agency," are geared toward Democrats.

Congratulations David and SSP'ers!
(snip)
http://www.swingstateproject.com/

[Lexingtonian]

15. let me give this a shot

I've done a certain amount of analysis on this election and Missouri is The Great Democratic Frustration this cycle. Democrats have bounced back or are clearly bouncing back from the defeats of '02 in every state except Missouri, Alabama, and Mississippi ('03). The latter two states simply are 'cabooses' and lag, certainly don't lead, political trends and present no opportunities before the '06 elections. But Missouri...Democrats have reorganized and rebuilt and regained momentum in all the states around it, it seems, but something's holding things up in the Big Mo. Maybe it's Gephardt and the Carnahans, at the risk of sounding like a heretic.

Well, my best assessment of Missouri in '04 before understanding how effective Ralph Reed is was an average, 3%, shift from 2000 to a split of 51-52% conservative/47-48% moderate-liberal. It was going to be marginal for the Democratic candidate and Democrats at best and some significant amount of Republican failure was going to be necessary. You simply have a painfully large 'outstate'.

I think that August vote to ratify the gay marriage ban amendment was the real test. Basically, all of the 'Evangelical Christian' vote showed up- 90-100% turnout of their ~30% of the Missouri electorate. To match the potential votes Republicans were going to get together out of this bloc plus their city moderates Democrats were going to need to get 30+% of the electorate to turn out and vote Democratic just to pull somewhere near even. It was just too much to ask. So, to put it bluntly, Republicans have simply organized the rural (outstate) vote and Christian Right in Missouri in a way that is close to impossible to defeat this time around. The core problem is demographic, and it is that the state has this large, heavily Christian Right, conservative rural population that still sufficiently outnumbers the city populations. The argument/problem is about the same for Arkansas and even more pronounced in Louisiana, even though they look as close on paper. You can see the extent of the problem in Missouri in Kit Bond's reelection numbers- he's reportedly an alcoholic and has very little to show for his last term, and Nancy Farmer is putting up a pretty good fight, but that electorate is simply not budging or open to listening at this point.

I'm not one to tell you that Missouri is unimportant. But of the states that gave Bush his electoral votes in 2000, about 8 or so look more easy for Democrats to win than Missouri on paper and in pollings. The easiest 3-5 of those states are where the electoral vote majority is going to be won or lost, and states like Missouri are candidly functioning as margin-extenders on that most fundamental level. The Big Three are presently Nevada, Florida, and Ohio; New Hampshire is pretty much in the bag for Kerry and Colorado (lots of Hispanic voters ending their political apathy) probably rounds out the top five into which money and effort have to go.

Missouri is IMHO on a tier shared with West Virginia, Virginia, North Carolina, Arkansas, and Arizona- forced to pick one or two of them to throw Democratic money at, I couldn't tell you which ones. Not that Republicans are guaranteed to win them, either- but if any of them tip to Kerry I don't think we'll see numbers suggesting the possibility until the last week.

So I'm sorry to see the Kerry people leaving Missouri. I'm probably more upset that Bond is going to get reelected, unworthy as he has shown himself, and Farmer defeated, and that the McCaskill/Blunt Jr race is also looking ugly in the same fashion. Missouri needs that turnaround statewide election victory for a Modern Democrat. I hope you get it anyway.

[Awsi Dooger]

17. Republican GOTV worries me more than any single factor in 2004

They correctly viewed 2000 as a loss and realized they were outhustled on the ground, particularly in battleground states. The Ralph Reed 72 Hour model from Georgia 2002 is being transferred throughout the South and nationwide. DUers who cynically attribute Georgia to Diebold alone may be in for a rude jolt if it is semi-repeated in non-Diebold states. The GOP got its registration drive going early then turned to GOTV specifics in the fall, after already having the gameplan and numbers in place.

I'm very late in understanding demographic realities of individual states, or how they are changing. I see in my Excel notes that non-Hispanic whites outnumber blacks 9/1 in Missouri, much more substantial than other battleground states. I also noted after 2002 that the rural Missouri vote was up substantially from projected, a 10% or greater increase, probably accounting for Carnahan's 20,000 vote defeat. Now your post emphasizes that trend has already held up in the 2004 August vote. Maximizing the rural and Christian conservative vote is the GOP equivalent to our urban and youth registration drives. Their version has not garnered the publicity but I'm not sure I wouldn't trade the potential impact, if not raw numbers.

That tier you listed should also include Louisiana, IMO. And for a major national party that has won the popular vote in three straight elections to be unable to monetarily contest those states is beyond pathetic. We have recent wins in all but North Carolina and Virginia. There has to be a more effective approach than all-or-nothing down the stretch. You know damn well we'll blow a big expenditure state by same or greater margin as something we ignore. And at some point you've got to have balls and ignore panic polls. I wouldn't have spent a single dime in New Jersey, for example.

[Cha]

35. We have some amazing GOTV ourselves..

ACT is doing a Phenomenal job.

[Zynx]

16. This is a piss poor move. We must at least try for Missouri.

[shells]

18. What you can do in Missouri

ACT and other progressive groups have registered huge numbers of new voters. Now the key is to turn out the vote. It is time for grassroots action. If you are in MO volunteer with ACT, there is a huge GOTV training this weekend.

If you are not in a swing state, you can still help with the GOTV if you are willing call from out of state. If you are interested in long distance phone banking, please email shells2004 at swbell dot net.

Don't give up hope for MO, we can still make a different in voter turnout.

[newyawker99]

19. Hi shells!!

Welcome to DU!! :toast:

[zaj]

21. MoveOn still has people organized in swing states...

Do they have people in Missouri?

[WI_DEM]

23. there private polling may indicate trends that we don't see

another problem is that statewide it appears that Bond is well ahead for the senate and McCaskill is running behind in her race to retain the governorship. It may be that the campaign believes that with the statewide ticket not performing well it is doubtful that they will be able to prevail in the presidential race. But who knows?

[GumboYaYa]

25. One correction. Claire is not behind.

She is actually polling better than Kerry in MO. Several outstate areas are showing better support for Claire than was expected. Claire is going to win, regardless of how Kerry does.

[WI_DEM]

27. I'm glad

recent polls I've seen had her behind, but if she has pulled ahead or even that is hopeful.

[crispini]

26. Official campaign? We don't need no steenkin official campaign!

It continually amazes me when people wail about, "Kerry pulled out of this" or "Kerry pulled out of that."

SO FREAKIN WHAT?

If you live in Missouri and you CARE about how your campaign is going in your state, GET OFF YOUR ASS AND GO CANVASS YOUR OWN DAMN SELF.

Same goes of any other state where there is no Kerry campaign.

Ever heard of grassroots? Use the internet, use your local DP office, make your own damn copies at Kinko's, make your own t-shirts, and SUCK IT UP AND DEAL WITH IT.

Yes, of course, it would be better if there was an official guiding hand, but speaking as a denizen of a state that's NEVER EVEN GOTTEN ANY OFFICIAL KERRY LITERATURE, there's a whole hell of a lot you can DO without the official campaign.

Sorry, don't mean to be inflammatory, but jeez, official campaign pulls out of Missouri? Just means more work for the grassroots IMO.

[RayOfHope]

30. That's exactly what we are doing!

At least in my county. Our field organizer left us information, and we are going to work our asses off in the next 21 days identifying voters and GOTV. All we need are volunteers and determination, not any 'offical' campaign backing.

[crispini]

34. BRAVO!

Power to the people!

[Thrill]

28. Internal Polling must suggest

its not looking good there. We're in the last weeks. You have to use your resources wisely.

[GumboYaYa]

32. No amount of TV advertising is going to change the dynamic

in MIssouri. As many on here have noted, MO comes down to a ground effort. If St. Louis and KC have big turnout Kerry can win. We need at least a 150,000 vote lead out of St. Louis City and county to be competitive.

The ground effort here is being led by ACT and Move ON. I understand that Move ON expects thousands of people to come into the state in the last weeks to help GOTV.

The key in Missouri is to up the turnout in the cities. We know that the rural areas will turn out and vote for Bush in large numbers. Spending money on advertisements will not get people to the polls. MO has to have the biggest grab and drag effort ever on election day for MO to go for Kerry. That's where the resources are going now.

Volunteer to help in the last few weeks if you are in Missouri. Don't expect the Kerry campaign to do it all for us. Let's get out there in St. Louis city and get the voters we need to the polls.

[newportdadde]

37. Some good analysis in this thread.

Speaking as a Missourian who lives in a KC suburb which trends Republican I do think Democratic support has increased from where it was 2 years ago. However I notice very little advertising from Nancy Farmer, even signs and no doubt its lock for Bond to yet again maintain his lifetime appointment. Can't wait to see him again finally in a few years when its again time to get reelected.

Claire is hanging in there.

I think the issue of Gay marriage really energized that right wing Christian base here and your seeing the after effects of that. Just be thankful its not on the ballet for this vote like the Republican leadership tried to manipulate it to be.

[yellowcanine]

38. How many times can Kerry "pull out" of the same state. Every time the

strategy changes a little we get this Kerry is pulling out of __________. (Fill in your favorite swing state) One thing that has happened is that registration has closed in most states. Campaigns will move into a GOTV mode when that happens. Many times the GOTV efforts are in the hands of the local party activists. Let's face it, for most voters their minds are made up. It is now a matter of getting them to vote if they are your voters. Another television ad one way or the other is not going to change their minds. Furthermore, campaigns have to decide where their resources are most needed. Sometimes a strong local organization means the national campaign can redirect their resources elsewhere. Also a lot of the "pulling out" talk is misinformation spread by the opposition and is part of the Psy-ops campaign. These campaigns are fought on many levels and we would be smart not to panic at every little tic that occurs.

[IIgnoreNobody]

43. As many times as

Chicken Little said the sky was falling.

BTW, the Bush campaign has also stopped advertising in Missouri

[jackstraw45]

39. REMEMBER: It's about getting 270 electoral votes

There's a strategy and a formula.

They can't win them all but if they win enough to get 270 electoral votes, and the votes are counted in those states, Kerry will win.

Perhaps they are close in Missouri but CLOSER in another state that puts them over.

Just keep working folks and don't worry!

[ciaobox]

41. SOMEONE WITH TIES TO THE CAMPAIGN

Spank the Kerry campaign VERY fucking hard for this stupid Al Gore-esque move. Does Kerry WANT to lose? WHAT THE FUCK!???!!??