Poll: Kerry cuts into Bush lead(Arizona!)

[unfrigginreal]

By HOWARD FISCHER
Capitol Media Services
10/13/2004

PHOENIX -- Aided by the debates, Democrat John Kerry has pulled within striking distance of George Bush in Arizona, according to a new statewide poll.

The survey, coming on the eve of the final debate tonight, gives the president the backing of 49 percent of the 401 likely voters questioned against 44 percent for Kerry. Libertarian Michael Badnarik logs just 1 percent in the poll, which has a margin of error of 5 percent.

Pollster Fred Solop at the Social Research Laboratory at Northern Arizona University said Bush had opened a double-digit lead over Kerry before the debates.

In fact, in a smaller survey done by Solop before and during that second town hall style debate last Thursday, the 169 likely Arizona voters questioned at that time tilted 55-40 for Bush. That tracks with a Survey USA poll also done last week, before the second debate, which showed Bush leading 55-41.

Solop said the new numbers, from a survey conducted Friday through Monday, show Kerry apparently performed well enough to once again make Arizona a "battleground state'' in the presidential election.

http://www.azdailysun.com/non_sec/nav_includes/story.cfm?storyID=95915

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SWEET!

[NewYorkerfromMass]

1. McCain backs the chimp. Game over

If Bush has a solid backing of 49% then there is no way Kerry can win.
I have yet to see an AZ poll with Bush less than 47%. That's about the threshold where you can expect to pull out a win.
Unless there is an invisible, unpolled 2 or 3% and a 100% GOTV, I don't see us pulling AZ or Virginia for that matter.

[fugop]

2. Are you kidding me?

Is a poll of 400 voters really a good sample? Margin of error is 5 points? Ai yi yi.

[quaoar]

3. It's hard to take seriously

any poll with a MOE greater than 3 percent.

But it does show the state trending to Kerry.

[chitty]

4. I believe Az is more in play

I believe Az is more in play than people realize.

There are hordes of midwestern & eastern state transplants living here now. Most people that I talk to are "NOT" voting for the oil pimp.

Oh - hello to everyone.

[quaoar]

5. Welcome to DU, Chitty

Just heard a CNN reporter say that Arizona is friendly territory for Bush and that "Kerry has all but given up on Arizona."

[City Lights]

6. Hi chitty!

Welcome to DU. :hi:

[kentuck]

7. Welcome chitty !

:)

[chitty]

8. Thanks for the hello's!

I've been lurking for awhile and thought it was time to jump on in.

[newyawker99]

9. Hi chitty!!

Welcome to DU!! :toast: