Talking Points - Terry M. Neal
Washington Post 10/13/04
With less than three weeks before the election, President Bush may be in a politically precarious position going into tonight's critical debate with Sen John F. Kerry. Anecdotal and quantitative evidence suggest that Democrats and independent groups that support Democrats have done a better job than Republicans at registering new voters in key battleground states. In a normal year, the difficulty in getting the newly registered to the polls might mitigate this advantage. But anti-Bush passions on the left are running exceedingly high, making it more likely that marginal voters -- people who rarely vote -- will turn out this year.
"Conventional wisdom tells us that a good ground game means three to four points on Election Day," said Sarah Leonard, a spokeswoman for Americans Coming Together, a coalition of liberal, feminist, and environmental organizations that supports Kerry.
University of Virginia political science professor Larry Sabato wrote in his "Crystal Ball" campaign analysis earlier this week that he expects a high turnout will favor Kerry. "We are tempted to argue that Bush actually needed his full 5 to 6 percent September lead to insure a narrow victory," he wrote.
Part of Sabato's rationale for his prediction is that he thinks poll respondents who say they are undecided today will break somewhat more heavily for Kerry when they get in the booth.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A29043-2004Oct13.html