Washington Post: What Poll and Registration Numbers Don't Reveal

[Harlan James]

Talking Points - Terry M. Neal
Washington Post 10/13/04

With less than three weeks before the election, President Bush may be in a politically precarious position going into tonight's critical debate with Sen John F. Kerry. Anecdotal and quantitative evidence suggest that Democrats and independent groups that support Democrats have done a better job than Republicans at registering new voters in key battleground states. In a normal year, the difficulty in getting the newly registered to the polls might mitigate this advantage. But anti-Bush passions on the left are running exceedingly high, making it more likely that marginal voters -- people who rarely vote -- will turn out this year.

"Conventional wisdom tells us that a good ground game means three to four points on Election Day," said Sarah Leonard, a spokeswoman for Americans Coming Together, a coalition of liberal, feminist, and environmental organizations that supports Kerry.

University of Virginia political science professor Larry Sabato wrote in his "Crystal Ball" campaign analysis earlier this week that he expects a high turnout will favor Kerry. "We are tempted to argue that Bush actually needed his full 5 to 6 percent September lead to insure a narrow victory," he wrote.

Part of Sabato's rationale for his prediction is that he thinks poll respondents who say they are undecided today will break somewhat more heavily for Kerry when they get in the booth.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A29043-2004Oct13.html

[MallRat]

1. "Democrats have done a better job... at registering new voters."

And the Republicans have done an excellent job at disenfranchising those new voters.

We need a sizable margin of victory. GOP dirty tricks are going to cost us 2 points in Ohio, Florida, and Nevada (and maybe more states). Kerry needs to beat Bush by 4-5 to officially "win" these states, I'm afraid.

-MR

[yellowcanine]

2. Sabato is usually right on - so this is reason for some optimism. Saboto

sometimes sounds as if he leans slightly Republican but generally his analysis is fair and unbiased so I am happy to see him taking the Democratic ground game as a serious factor in this election.

[Media_Lies_Daily]

3. It's not just the "left" turning out in large numbers...

...that will decide this election.

The election will also be decided by those on the moderate right who have grown to despise the NeoCons. Those folks will split two ways...more than half for Kerry, and the remainder choosing not to vote at all.

Nader voters will be wasting their votes, IMHO...they will influence absolutely nothing in November.

[enough]

5. I'm seeing this a lot

in my southeast PA neighborhood -- overwhelmingly republican. Over and over as I talk to people, I hear moderate republicans saying they will not vote for Bush this time. Will vote Kerry or stay home.

I also see MANY people putting out yard signs for state and local republican candiates, but without the Bush signs that you would expect to see along with them.

[DemocracyInaction]

4. The Republican Party is right on the verge of splitting apart

The lunacy of the far right (no stem cell research, etc.) combined with the very anti-conservative gagging debt has moderate republicans very upset. There's also some powerful people who are moderates prowling around the fringes and wanting to run for the presidency or be on the ticket in '08 but know they can't get by the first primaries with the lock the lunatics have in certain states. Those guys are not going to go away and suck their thumbs. They want this party back in their control (Hagel, Gulliana, Pataki, McCain). Right now it looks like Frist is the only one that will past the right wing lunatic test for '08 - him and Jeb.