Unconventional Wisdom. Could Kerry Win With a Surprise Scenario?

[HFishbine]

For all the talk of key "battleground" states, I have a hunch that Kerry is going to win by garnering a couple of surprise states.

Here's one such scenario:

- Bush takes battleground states of Florida, Missouri, Ohio, WVa, New Hampshire, Colorado and New Mexico.
- Kerry takes Wisconsin and Penn.
- Kerry gets surprise wins in North Carolina, and Nevada or Arkansas.
- KERRY WINS with at least 275 electoral votes.

What say you? Do you see a scenario where a surprise state or two gives it to Kerry even with Bush winning most of the "battlegrounds?"

Here's an interactive electoral map that can help you explore different scenarios: http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/election-test-fl,0,1851284.flash

[On the Road]

1. I've Seen Scenarios Under Which Kerry Could Win

even while losing PA, OH, and FL.

Personally, I think that the race is nationalized enough that a swing in one direction will affect most of the country. And the number of battleground states is so large that one or two percentage points can mean a difference of 50 to 100 electoral votes.

Kerry may win some surprises. But I think they will be part of a more convincing win.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

3. Ohio, Florida, and Pennsylvania...

The winner of two of these three states is the next pres....


This is as close as you can come to a mortal lock in politics...


I think Bush will carry the entire south again....


Profoundly sad but true...

[djack23]

6. Kerry Can Win W/ OH & FL

Because there are very real possibilities that Kerry can win w/out Ohio and Florida.

1) Gore States + NH + NV and Colorado Referendum
2) Gore States + NH + NV + WV
3) Gore States + NH + ARKANSAS
4) Gore States + MO
5) Gore States + NH + WV + Colorado Referendum


These are all real possibilities

[DemocratSinceBirth]

8. As Much As I Want To Believe These Are Remote...

I'd put the odds at Kerry winning with any of those combinations at one in five....


I'd put the odds of us winning New Hampshire at even...


They have a Puke governor and two Puke senators...

[On the Road]

9. NH is Likely to Go for Kerry

partly because he's a favorite son. The most populous part of the state, the southeast, is right next to Mass, and are virtually in the Boston metro area. Something like 30% of NH residents used to live in Mass at one point. It was a big factor in Kerry winning the Dem primary -- he may have had a bigger boost than Dean from being in a neighboring state. And I think it will win NH for Kerry.

That leaves NV, AR, or a part of Colorado. One of the three is a pretty good bet.

[flowomo]

2. I need a little time to analayze your numbers....

I'll get back to you on Nov. 3

[HFishbine]

4. Ha!

I await your "prediction."

[flowomo]

5. now don't rush me.....

I don't mean to put down your scenario.... but there are just so many what-ifs out there that I think the best strategy is to just keep working working working and have faith that Kerry will seize the many opportunities he has to win this thing

[DU9598]

7. After the victory

The Democrats need to work on a strategy to take back the south, or at least make it be "in play". I know that Gen. Clark may be a great Sec. of State or UN Ambassador, but maybe he should be Chairman of the Democratic Party. I could see him doing a lot to bring our nation together under our party.