Clark seems to have peaked in ARG poll in New Hampshire...

[helleborient]

The daily tracking poll the last three days has Clark going 21-20-19 and Dean picking up a point back to 36 even though he's been campaigning in Iowa while Clark is on the ground in New Hampshire.

http://www.americanresearchgroup.com/nhpoll/demtrack/

Plus, according to the poll, Dean's support is more solide than any other candidate:

"Beyond Ballot Preference - January 12, 2004
Strength-of-support measures indicate that likely Democratic primary voters saying they will vote for Howard Dean are more likely to say Dean is the only candidate they will vote for or that they prefer Dean over the other candidates (a measure of strong support). In the tracking ending January 11, 89% of Dean voters are strong supporters of Dean, 75% of Kerry voters are strong supporters of Kerry, 63% of Clark voters are strong supporters of Clark, and 62% of Lieberman voters are strong supporters of Lieberman.

Dean and Kerry have lost much of their soft support since mid-December when they were at 45% and 20%, respectively, in the ballot preference. If Clark were to lose his soft support, he would slip into a three-way battle for second place with Kerry and Lieberman."

[mouse7]

1. Kerry slipped into tie for 4th with Lieberman at 10%

Kerry is still freefalling. Approaching terminal velocity.

[CMT]

4. tie for third

If Lieberman comes in the top three he will continue in the race. Both Lieberman and Kerry have the same personal approval rating as well.

Also, according to ARG, if Clark's soft support continues to fall off it could be a three way race for second between Clark, Kerry, and Lieberman.

Should be interesting.

[9119495]

8. Kerry seems to be gaining in Iowa. he will

do better than expected on caucus night.

[mouse7]

13. Edwards will overtake Kerry

Des Moines Register endorsement will catapult Edwards past Kerry and put Kerry no higher than 4th.

[9119495]

14. I think Gep and Dean have been hurt the most recently

Gep, because he has an awful campaign that relies on some old timers who "owe" him support.

Dean because of the media picking apart everything he has ever said so they can create a close race.

Both Kerry adn Edwards will benefit from their slides. It would not surprise me if Gep loses 2nd place here in Iowa.

[Renew Deal]

2. So are you disapointed Clark didn't pass Dean yet?

He goes up 10 points in a week and people are looking for something to knock.

[helleborient]

5. Clarkian exaggeration? He has gained 7 in a week if you look at the poll

And Dean has maintained his support solidly.

[SahaleArm]

7. *deleted*

*wrong post*

[John_H]

17. Ten pt. Swing--Dean down 3, Clark up seven. In one week!

[helleborient]

19. No, that was a week and a half, Dean has lost nothing over the last week

And there has been a 3 point swing the other way in the last 3 days...Clark down 2 and Dean back up 1.

[SahaleArm]

3. Since all the numbers are within MOE what does that tell you? n/t

[helleborient]

6. That Dean's lead is the only thing outside the MOE (n/t)

[ignatiusr]

9. Well, If that's all it tells us, then that should be the headline

Instead of saying that Clark has "peaked."

I think people are too quick to judge tracking polls. They need to step back and realize that these are released EVERY day, and are extremely fluid. Day-to-day differences are not important. If two weeks from now, Clark is still hovering in the late teens, it will be safe to say he has peaked. But to come to that conclusion after two days and a statistically insignificant drop is just a little presumptuous.

[helleborient]

10. Clark supporters said the same of Dean when he ticked down 2...

So...hmmm...negative news is hard to take, eh?

Welcome to the campaign...Dean has been taking knocks for a year.

[Padraig18]

12. I'm tired of the "Marsha, Marsha, Marsha!" stuff...

We've been attacked relentlessly for a year from every quarter, but now that the shoe is on the Clark campaign's foot, it's "Waaaa, waaa, waaa, stop being mean to us!". Tough noogies, folks; welcome to the primary season!

[dfong63]

16. it'sno more presumptuous than Clark supporters

... constantly yammering about Clark's supposed "momentum".

as a Dean supporter i get tired of hearing the supporters of the also-rans incessantly and gleefully predicting that Dean has "peaked".

[QC]

11. It tells me that the desperation of some around here

has become truly comic.

[unfrigginreal]

15. Interesting commentary from ARG this morning

"If Clark were to lose his soft support, he would slip into a three-way battle for second place with Kerry and Lieberman."

They're moving away from their smear Dean, advise Clark comments and seem to be establishing an excuse for a Clark freefall.

[Capn Sunshine]

18. Let the number speak for themselves

no matter what they say, the Clark camp will spin it as a victory.
Like Kosovo.