10/13 ARG Polls - Kerry leads Oregon, Tie in Iowa

[unfrigginreal]

Kerry Holds Slight Lead Overs Bush Among Likely Voters in Oregon

John Kerry holds a slight lead over George W. Bush among likely voters in Oregon according to a survey by the American Research Group. A total of 49% of likely voters say they would vote for Kerry if the presidential election were being held today and 44% say they would vote for Bush. A total of 2% of likely voters say they would vote for Ralph Nader and 5% of likely voters are undecided.

http://www.americanresearchgroup.com/or

Bush and Kerry Remain Tied Among Likely Voters in Iowa

George W. Bush and John Kerry remain tied among likely voters in Iowa according to a survey by the American Research Group. A total of 47% of likely voters say they would vote for Bush if the presidential election were being held today and 47% say they would vote for Kerry. A total of 2% of likely voters say they would vote for Ralph Nader and 4% of likely voters are undecided.

http://www.americanresearchgroup.com/ia

[lancdem]

1. Good news

I think Kerry has CA, OR and WA about wrapped up. I think the only three blue states he may need to really defend are Iowa, New Mexico and Wisconsin, and he's definitely doing better in these states than he was a month ago.

[WI_DEM]

2. That is a fairly good lead for Kerry in Oregon

especially considering Gore won the state by only a point or so. Iowa is ok--Democratic absentee ballots are coming in at a much faster pace than Republican absentee ballots and more Dems than Reps have ordered absentee ballots. It is how Gore narrowly won Iowa in 2000.