ABC News: only 8 battlegrounds left

[ButterflyBlood]

Pennsylvania, Ohio, Florida, Iowa, Wisconsin, New Mexico, Nevada, and New Hampshire

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/TheNote/story?id=156238

I'm just happy Minnesota is gone!

[tridim]

1. Why does nobody ever mention Colorado?

It drives me nuts.

[PROGRESSIVE1]

3. or Virginia!

[ButterflyBlood]

7. Kerry has completely pulled out of Virginia

and redeployed his campaign staff to other states. Looks like he conceded it.

[spooky3]

14. don't think so--VA Dems are VERY active this year

Kerry's campaign probably felt that there was enough local organization in place and that the limited Kerry resources were best used in other states. I don't think he would concede a state where polls show he's only 3 percentage points behind. It's too bad he doesn't have the $ to run more ads here, because we are seeing some from the opposition.

[Puglover]

6. I would die if

Minnesota went Bush. My South Minneapolis neighborhood is block after block of Kerry signs.

[4_Legs_Good]

9. When was the last time Minnesota went Republican?

It has to have been at the very least Nixon. If it didn't go for Nixon it's been forever, no?

david

[ButterflyBlood]

10. 1972

n/t

[Puglover]

11. I think it was

Nixon. I still can't figure out how that pretty boy knuckledragging Pawlenty got in.

[ButterflyBlood]

16. actually it's pretty easy

former Democrat runs on a third part, splits the vote, that dumbass wins with 44%

[aldian159]

2. Bush has more at stake

The four battlegrounds that he "won" are more valuable than the four battlegrounds Gore won.

[livetohike]

4. I have faith in Pennsylvania

Democratic registrations are up in Allegheny County (overwhelmingly Democratic anyway). Kerry will carry PA.

[michigandem2]

20. didn't * pull out of PA? that would make me assume that

PA is trending to Kerry?

[livetohike]

21. Yes and Bush spent much time and money there

Maybe the news about the Dem. registrations scared them away :shrug:

[TwilightZone]

5. And, according to Zogby state polls, we're ahead in all 8.

Admittedly, this is a week old:

http://online.wsj.com/public/resources/documents/info-battleground04.html

Many are within the margin of error, of course.

[ButterflyBlood]

8. real polls or those online ones?

Those online ones are worthless

[TwilightZone]

12. Good point.

They're the "interactive" (online) ones.

[Thegonagle]

13. Minnesota was never a battleground state. (Not in my mind, anyway.) N/T

[Puglover]

15. Me too,

however I smelled Bush and Cheney more often then I liked this summer.


On edit, a big welcome to DU Thegonagle!

:toast:

[mdguss]

17. I think this election will be decided by:

New Hampshire, Colorado, Nevada, Ohio, Florida, and West Virginia. Notice it's being fought in states that went to Bush in 2000? I think that's a good sign...

[newyawker99]

24. Hi Thegonagle!!

Welcome to DU!! :toast:

[soleft]

18. Have you seen this analysis by Mark Shields

I don't know if you can extrapolate this to individual state polls, but nationally whatever the incumbent is polling at is what he gets, so if Bush is below 50 in the battleground states, that's good news.

Forget the point spread. Look at point totals in the major polls.


WASHINGTON (Creators Syndicate) -- If anyone tells you that the latest authoritative national poll shows President George W. Bush either running 4 percentage points ahead of or 2 points behind Massachusetts Sen. John F. Kerry, pay him no attention. Ignore the messenger completely.

...snip...

History shows that the percentage of the vote that an incumbent president gets in the major polls before Election Day is an accurate predictor of the percentage of the vote the incumbent will win on Election Day. Thus, in Molyneux's judgment, the "incumbent who fails to poll above 50 percent is in grave danger of losing his job."

In the four most recent elections where an incumbent president sought re-election -- Bill Clinton in 1996, George H.W. Bush in 1992, Ronald Reagan in 1984 and Jimmy Carter in 1980 -- in the three major polls of the broadcast networks and their newspaper partners, the incumbent won the same percentage of the actual vote (or less) as he had received in the polls in three elections. Only Ronald Reagan, who had polled 58 percent of the vote and then actually won 59 percent of the vote, exceeded the average of the three network surveys.

The numbers of the challengers -- a list that includes third party candidate Ross Perot twice -- run better on Election Day than they do in the pre-election measures of public opinion. The average increase on Election Day in the actual vote for a challenger to a president is 4 percentage points.
...snip...

CNN Mark Shields

[PerfectSage]

23. Latest Zogby poll-tied at 45%

Pollster John Zogby: "The two candidates go into the third and final debate tied. TIED!!! There is no major sub-group movement to report, but the undecided voters give us the real key to what is happening behind the scenes. Today's three-day track reveals that only 11% of the undecided voters feel that President Bush deserves to be re-elected. That is the lowest figure yet. Two in five -- 40%-- feel it is time for someone new and 49% are undecided about his future.

"The third debate is crucial.”

http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=884

God Bless President Kerry

[IIgnoreNobody]

19. ABC News likes to think 'TheNote' is clever or insightful - I disagree.

It's like cotton candy without the sugar. Well, I'll admit, it is sometimes a good source for links to news, but -- their 'analysis'? :eyes:

[Speck Tater]

22. You forgot Poland. (n/t)