We already know it will be a Kerry LANDSLIDE...

[benburch]

But my question is; How badly will the GOP be damaged by Shrub's self-destruction?

Of course, our one goal in the next four years will be Democratic domination of all parts of the government, but how far will we get with just this election?

If we play this right, I think we could splinter the GOP into two ineffective pieces.

[omnithrope]

1. Last I checked 45%/45% is not a landslide.

I hope for a landslide, but saying "we alrady know it will be a kerry LANDSLIDE" doesn't make it true.

Wishful thinking, perhaps...

[expatriot]

5. I agree... we have no time for wishful thinking.... we need to work our...

arses off for the next three weeks... work like hell.

[vpigrad]

7. Sigh, you believe too much Repuke PR!

It's not 45%! Look at honest polls. Most say 49% Kerry to 44% Bushie or more! Stop paying attention to liars and cheats. Don't you know how biased the media is? After all, how many repukes do you know? One? None? They can't be half the population. That's a bold lie.

[omnithrope]

11. "Most say 49% Kerry to 44% Bushie or more!" - landslide?

When did 49/44 this become a "landslide"?
Thinking like this just leads to complacency.

[benburch]

12. When it under-reported young and new voters.

1. New voters are not included in "likely" voter counts.

2. The mostly young segment who have only mobile phones are not being counted except by the Zogby online poll, and that has a bias against the the poor, the disadvantaged, the rural, and the elderly.

[caledesi]

16. Yes, those are the real facts and Michael Moore has registered

hundreds and thousands of new (young) voters on his "Slacker Tour"

Kerry in a landslide!

As an aside, according to the article from Andrew Sullivan, no incumbent president has won or lost closely except for BushI. (Ford, Clinton (2nd term), Reagan )

[DCCyclone]

22. This landslide talk is completely wishful thinking......

Some people on DU live in a Democratic bubble. This talk about young people with cell phones being missed by the polls as a "major" factor of polling error is yet one contributer--along with the yard sign barometer, a random DUer's hard-core Republican uncle considering Kerry, etc.--to the wishful thinking that makes it too easy to think GOPers are abandoning Dubya, and there really aren't that many GOPers out there anyway. All that is fiction.

The reality is that we are in a closely divided bloodless civil war. The Republicans are no less united behind Dubya than we are behind Kerry. The reality is that at least 45% of the total voters already have decided they WILL vote FOR DUBYA. And there are enough remaining voters who are seriously considering voting for Dubya that if most of them go with Dubya, Dubya will win.

I am confident that Kerry will win and be our next President. But I am just as confident that Kerry is just one major screw-up away from blowing it and losing. And I am yet just as confident that if neither Kerry nor Dubya screws up bigtime again in this campaign, then I still will be biting my nails with the projections for state after state on election night. The BEST-case scenario is Kerry getting an absolute majority, just barely topping 50 percent, and winning all the major battlegrounds to top 300 EVs. But even that scenario requires Dubya to screw up yet again either tonight or some other time in the remaining 3 weeks.

[LibertyorDeath]

36. Well you can take that to the Bank

" that scenario requires Dubya to screw up yet again either tonight or some other time in the remaining 3 weeks."

His whole being SCREAMS SCREW UP !

[WI_DEM]

28. but Zogby yesterday had Bush up 46-38 among young voters

Not that I believe that, but we shouldn't get too over confident.

[The Wielding Truth]

37. Push on hard to Kerry victory! Hope all Dem's fight to vote.

[Arkana]

26. True. It's a solid win, but no landslide.

Johnson v. Goldwater in 1964...now THAT was a landslide. What did he win--something like 63% of the vote?

[expatriot]

13. Saying "We all know it's a landslide" on DU serves the GOP only

The worst thing that can happen is to have our activist base get too
complacent and over-confident. True, we can't get discouraged and defeatist either... there is a middle ground. A middle ground in which we have to fight like dogs, tirelessly and as if our lives depend on it. They do.

[benburch]

18. Bullshit

It serves the activist here who is feeling hopeless.

We need to let people know that vitory is ours if we don't let up!

It is not hopeless, just the opposite!

We can only lose if you give up the fight.

[omnithrope]

21. How does saying "we'll win by a landslide" help?

"We can only lose if you give up the fight."

Correct, but won't people be more likely to "give up" if they think the election is in the bag already? That's just dangerous thinking.

You want people to be moviated to vote, and this certainly isn't a motivational tool for Kerry supporters.

[benburch]

23. Does it dismotivate you?

Cuz the thought motivates and energizes me!

[omnithrope]

27. Not me, but what about undecided voters/fence sitters?

BUT, you're not trying to sway my vote... I'm voting against * no matter what.

[benburch]

29. I seriously don't think the fence sitters are in this audience.

Do you?

[omnithrope]

30. Yes.

Why would you assume any differently?

"The net is vast and limitless." -- Ghost in the Shell

People link to DU all the time, from all over the world. Humans are a curious lot, and if they think they can glean information from a reputable and rich source, they will.

I'd like DU to be that reputable and rich source. Throwing out hyperbole isn't the way to achieve that.

[nostamj]

25. it's an ATTITUDE, not a PREDICTION

amazing ben... yesterday I had a LANDSLIDE thread and aside from one 'jinx' post (and I'm doubtful the full post had been read and it was a reaction to the subject line only) I had dozens of wonderful replies, anecdotes, etc.

I certainly stressed that there was a LOT of work to be done, but that the work should be tackled from a place of resolve and confidence.

i'm swearing off all threads and posts that mention 'polls'

you'd think more DUers would ignore this phony, useless, and deliberatly misleading crap. esp. national 'polls'! ask Gore about how he feels about winning the national vote...

on edit: formatting errors!

[benburch]

34. Actually, it is BOTH.

It is my attitude AND my prediction.

A Kerry Landslide and the end of the GOP.

[nostamj]

35. oh, it is my BELIEF as well

I can understand the concern that some might become complacent if they think it's a done deal... but what I found, esp. in replies to yesterday's thread, is that holding that BELIEF is motivating, not the opposite.

people want to be part of a HUGE win.

MASSIVE TURNOUT no matter how red or blue your state is.

MASSIVE TURNOUT so that the win is also a MANDATE that * never came close to...

[Kukesa]

40. And a terrific attitude at that, nostamj. I'm all for it! n/t

[benburch]

9. The polls have a bad methodology this time out.

We are leading by 5-10% nationwide at present, and that margin will widen tonight,

[Mr.Green93]

2. the senate for sure

[omnithrope]

3. .

double post by accident.

[PROGRESSIVE1]

4. Those "two pieces" you speak of are:

"Nazis" and "Not So Nazi"!

[benburch]

10. Yes...

The business Nazis and the religion Nazis.

[cheshire]

6. We were think the same. I think It depends on Who they can find to

run in 2008. Sure would be great to see a division. We would be in a great position. I think they will rally and realize freaky hard right is not the way to go.

[archineas]

8. political schizms

i think that, regardless of who wins, we're in the midst of a massive redefinition of what it means to be 'republican'. it wouldn't shock me to see over the course of the next 2-4 years to see many traditional reagan republicans move towards a more centrist-to-conservative party, leaving the possibly damaged term "republican" to the right-wing whackos that currently dominate the republican landscape.

i recall reading recently in 'the nation' about how the creepublicans are currently turfing RINOs, whom they consider anyone not as far out on the right as they are.

i actually think a fracturing of the republican party would be good for american politics, as it would allow the demos to move left while the rubble of that break settles. does anyone among us not like the idea of more than two dominant political parties?

j

[benburch]

14. I expect the Libertarians to be a major party in four years...

And good thing too! The Libertarians I know are 100% behind constitutional freedoms!!!

[chum]

15. I never allow myself to experience optimism

You never know what might go wrong. I hope to experience pleasent surprize after the debate - like I did in the last three debates. For now I will stay worried.

"You don't count you money while you're sitting at the table" - The Gambler

[OneBlueSky]

17. how the voters vote and what the machines report . . .

may be two entirely different things, particularly in key states . . . don't count your chickens yet . . . they still own the voting machines, and will stop at nothing to remain in power . . .

[Nag Champa]

32. Is anyone else concerned about this?

The more I read about the electronic voting machines, the more concerned I am. From Hagels 14 point "victory" in Nebraska to the secrecy behind the design and deployment, this thing is starting to smell bad. I normally do not give much thought to those things which seem "conspiracy theory" in nature, but this one looks to have legs.

Can someone put me in check, or is my concern valid? I have a hard time believing that Rove Inc. will just lay down and accept the will of the rabble.

[nostamj]

33. welcome to DU.... AND...

check this out:

www.blackboxvoting.org

lots to be concerned about, LOTS being done.

[shivaji]

19. This has all the makings of a Kerry Landslide....here is why...

Bush has made more enemies in 4 years than Kerry.
The new voter registrations are breaking records, and
will break for Kerry in a big way.
MSM is helping us big time...good example..The Howard
win in Australia is almost not reported. Ditto with
the successful Afghan elections.
The motor voter registrations here in Oregon and Washington
states are enabling tons of non-elibible voters to be
registered, and 90% of them will vote for Kerry.
Kerry has 20 years of debating experience in the senate,
Bush has almost no experience. Kerry will cream Bush in
the 3rd debate.

These are just a few of the many many reasons.

[benburch]

Well Said!

This thing is ours to lose.

Lets not fuck up.

[MissouriTeacher]

20. How many saying it will be a Kerry landslide live in red or swing states?

I'd love to think Kerry's going to win in a landslide, but everyday I see Bush signs everywhere, and I know that there are a lot of people who support this loser no matter what.

I think if I was living in a solid blue state and saw Kerry signs everywhere, I'd probably feel differently.

Don't get me wrong, I'm not saying we won't win, but I'm not allowing myself the luxury of thinking about a landslide at this point.

[omnithrope]

24. exactly!

But, I depend on the rest of you. I live in TX, and even though I'll vote, it's just like throwing my vote away. Bush will win TX no matter what.

Thanks electoral college! I love you!!!

It's time like this I wish I were back in Michigan. =)

[TexasSissy]

31. Me, too.

[Braunschweiger Bone]

38. I wish I was smokin' whatever you are...

A landslide? This race is a dead heat, within all statistical margins of error. I think the other posters are correct-- you need to get yourself out into some of these red states. You will notice then that WAY more than 1/2 of them support the shrub.

There are also some disturbing trends developing:

1) young voters - pretty much split
2) female voters - pretty much split
3) Catholic voters - pretty much split
4) World War II voters - less and less of them each election

These are demographic groups that used to be ~overwhelmingly~ in the Democratic column. It's not so overwhelming anymore.

[benburch]

39. Not smoking anything at the moment...

Drug testing, you know.

I am seeing more support for Kerry from people I know to have voted Republican in the past than I could ever have imagined.

Gore won without all of these people, so how can Shrub win?

I fully believe that we have a Landslide in progress.