Some New Polls - IA, MN, OH, WI, OR

[newsguyatl]

The first few are from Chicago Tribune/WGN-TV conducted last Friday
through Monday in Iowa, Minnesota, Ohio, and Wisconsin.

500 likely voters were interviewed in each state.

Story here:
http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/specials/elections/chi-041012poll-story,1,7513939.story?coll=chi-news-hed


The results:

IOWA
George Bush 47%
John Kerry 45%
Ralph Nader 1%
Other *
Undecided 7%

MINNESOTA
John Kerry 45%
George Bush 43%
Ralph Nader 2%
Other 3%
Undecided 6%

OHIO
John Kerry 49%
George Bush 45%
Other 1%
Undecided 5%

WISCONSIN
John Kerry 47%
George Bush 43%
Ralph Nader 2%
Other *
Undecided 8%


Below, are two new polls from American Research Group

Oregon:
John Kerry is at 49%
George W. Bush is at 44%
Ralph Nader is at 2%

Kerry leads Bush among independents 51% to 40%.

Details of the Oregon survey conducted October 9-12 are at:

http://americanresearchgroup.com/or/



Iowa:
Kerry 47%
Bush 47%
Nader 2%

Kerry leads Bush among non-affiliated voters 48% to 42%.

Details of the Iowa survey conducted October 10-12 are at:

http://americanresearchgroup.com/ia/

[George_S]

1. Overall good news for the doubters n/t

[newsguyatl]

3. yeh, i think these polls are GREAT news

these are all battleground states, or slightly bush states, and kerry has the lead in all, but iowa, where's it's a virtual tie.

[KharmaTrain]

2. Trib Polls Are Outlyers...

So that makes these polls even sweeter. We're starting to see some blue sky in Wisconsin and Ohio! Iowa doesn't concern me as we know how good the Vilsack's organization is there and the state's record of voting Democratic.

I found it interesting that RoveCo. pulled out of Arizona. Any reason there? I can't think they feel the state's that safe.

[nostamj]

4. isn't it historically true that

undecided who are STILL undecided are not likely to go for the incumbent?

add even HALF the undecided (who say they are LIKELY to vote) to the totals and....

[Veela]

7. yup

I was watching something today that comfired that. They said most decided voters go against the incumbent. Kerry will win by 3-5 points, watch!

[newyawker99]

8. Hi Veela!!

Welcome to DU!! :toast:

[FightingIrish]

5. More Good News From Oregon

Today's Mail Tribune, the Medford daily has this headline: "Local poll: Bush, Kerry in dead heat"

The fact that this is a very red part of our blue state makes this news sensational.

But Bill Layton, chairman of the Jackson County Democratic Central Committee, said, "My best guess is the Bushies thought they had Southern Oregon sowed up, and particularly Jackson County. Thanks to a lot of people getting involved, it’s not as obvious that Bush can take Jackson County this time."

Layton disputed Platt’s assertion that there isn’t broad-based support for Kerry in Jackson County.

Referring specifically to a Mail Tribune/KTVL News 10 poll, Layton said Bush shows only a 3 point lead in a county that is 42 percent Republican and 34 percent Democrat.

http://www.mailtribune.com/archive/2004/1013/local/stories/02local.htm

[Lexingtonian]

6. given the way Undecideds usually break

Bush isn't going to win any of them.

Plus, at his rate of losing 'approval' (2.5% per month) nationally he may, in fact, not actually even make the percentages he's polling at now in these states on Election Day- let alone increase them.

That, my friends, is pathetic for an incumbent.

[tishaLA]

9. Iowa is huge

Because I htink Kerry's support on the ground is so strong--as we found out in the primaries--so a close poll like this looks like a win.

[Jack_Dawson]

10. Isn't MN smarter than this?

That was the only state Mondale won. And our idiot-in-chief is only behind by 2 points in the land of 10,000 lakes? I don't get it.

:shrug: