Kerry: Is This George Bush's Strategy Starting Tonight, Deny Job Loss?

[bigtree]

10/13/2004 6:37:00 PM

IS THIS GEORGE BUSH'S STRATEGY STARTING TONIGHT, DENY JOB LOSSES?

John Snow said that job loss was a "myth." Don Evans is also in the fantasy world of spin and denial, saying "I just don't accept that conclusion that we've lost jobs during this administration." Unfortunately for them, facts are stubborn things.

BUSH HAS INDEED LOST JOBS:

Whether one counts private sector jobs or total jobs (including government) the Bush jobs record is a record of job loss. According the Bureau of Labor Statistics' (BLS) payroll survey, the survey that the Federal Reserve, Goldman Sachs, and even the BLS itself thinks is the most accurate:

Private-sector jobs in January 2001: 111,560,000

Private-sector jobs in September 2004: 109,926,000

PRIVATE-SECTOR JOBS LOST UNDER BUSH: 1,634,000 jobs lost

Even if you include the government jobs Bush has created:

Total jobs in January 2001: 132,388,000

Total jobs in September 2004: 131,567,000

TOTAL JOBS LOST UNDER BUSH: -821,000

ALAN GREENSPAN AND BLS AGREE THE PAYROLL SURVEY IS MORE RELIABLE:

Alan Greenspan Agrees that the Household Survey is Less Reliable Than The Payroll Survey. "I wish I could say the household data were the more accurate. Everything we've looked at suggests that it's the payroll data which are a series which you have to follow and for several reasons...All I can say to you is, having looked at both sets of data in some considerable detail, it's our judgment that, as much as we would like the household data to be the more accurate, regrettably that turns out not to be the case." (Alan Greenspan, House Financial Services Committee, 2/11/04)

Bureau of Labor Statistics Commissioner Kathleen Utgoff Says the Payroll Survey is More Reliable. "It is our judgment that the payroll survey provides more reliable information on the current trend in wage and salary employment. The payroll survey has a larger sample than the household survey--400,000 business establishments covering about one-third of total nonfarm payroll employment. Moreover, the payroll survey estimates are regularly anchored to the comprehensive count of nonfarm payroll employment derived from the unemployment insurance tax records." (Statement before the Joint Economic Committee, 9/5/03)

EVANS AND SNOW CHANGE THEIR TUNE FROM LAST FRIDAY:

Last Friday, the payroll survey showed that jobs increased by 96,000 in September while the household survey showed that jobs decreased by 201,000 in September. When it came to that month, the Bush administration was touting the payroll survey:

On Friday Snow Said Friday's Payroll Survey Report Showed, "A Steady Creation Of Jobs." Last Friday, when the Bureau of Labor Statistics released September's employment statistics, Treasury Secretary John Snow pointed to September's creation of 96,000 new jobs and said the report showed, "a steady creation of jobs fueled by the pro-growth policies and strong economic leadership of President Bush." But on that same day, the household survey (Chicago Tribune, 10/9/04)

-- But the household survey showed 201,000 jobs lost in September - the same survey Snow is now citing. Snow changed his tune on jobs. "A national household poll shows 3.2 million jobs have been created during Bush's term in the White House, Snow asserted. Claims like the one that Bush will be the first president to end a term with fewer jobs than when he started are nothing more than 'myths,' Snow claimed." (The Courier (Ohio), 10/12/04)

On Friday Evans Pointed to 13 Straight Months of Economic Growth Based on the Payroll Survey. "U.S. Commerce Secretary Donald L. Evans said the report showed that jobs grew for the 13th straight month. 'We've had job gains despite being in a wartime economy. Hurricanes and high energy prices haven't dampened our resilient recovery.'" (Boston Herald, 10/9/04)

-- But the household survey Evans now cites shows job losses in 5 of the last thirteen months. According the household survey, jobs declined in September and December 2003 and in February, March, and September 2004. This is the same survey Don Evans was referring to when he told CBS MarketWatch "That's false. That's just not factual," Evans said in an interview with CBS MarketWatch. "I just don't accept that conclusion that we've lost jobs during this administration." (CBS MarketWatch, 10/8/04)

http://www.johnkerry.com/pressroom/releases/pr_2004_1013d.html

[Giornovichi]

1. Deny This BUSH

Unemployment is like 5.4% right now. How can he deny that!
That's about 5 out of every hundred people isn't working.

[NMDemDist2]

2. it's closer to 7.4% if you add the folks who have just dropped out

of the workforce altogether and even larger if you count underemployed folks

[bigtree]

3. And

there are those households who have had to put a spouse who wasn't working out into the workforce because of a loss in wages or loss of healthcare. The new jobs are paying less with less or no benefits.