Dean's up, Clark down in latest ARG N.H. poll

[Melinda]

Data:

3-Day Results Jan 9-11

Braun 0%
Clark 19%
Dean 36%
Edwards 3%
Gephardt 4%
Kerry 10%
Kucinich 1%
Lieberman 10%
Sharpton 0%
Other 0%
Undecided 17%

Sample size 616

Democrats 425
Undeclared 191
Undeclared (%) 31%
Margin of error is ± 4 percentage points
Methodology

http://www.americanresearchgroup.com/nhpoll/demtrack/

[slinkerwink]

1. good news!

[Dookus]

5. yes it is...

looks like Clark has locked in a solid second place finish in NH, which is great.

[unfrigginreal]

11. Your pollster didn't sound quite that positive in his comments

If Clark were to lose his soft support, he would slip into a three-way battle for second place with Kerry and Lieberman.

[Padraig18]

2. But how can that be?

he's 'tanking', or didn't you get the memo? :P

[tedoll78]

3. Wow.

Dean appears to have a solid base of about 30% nationwide, give or take 5%. This is of great advantage in such a crowded field.

[Padraig18]

4. The latest CNN/USA Today polls has him 26% vs. 20% for Clark.

Among Democrats nationwide.

[Bolo Boffin]

6. Dupe thread

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=132&topic_id=105191

[tameszu]

7. If you are going to live and die by 1-point poll swings in each direction

you are going to need a lot of therapy by the end of primary season.

Remember all of the sarcastic "I thought Clark was supposed to be surging" comments when Clark dropped 2 to 12 and Dean gained 1 last week? Well Clark then gained 2 points a day for the next 4 or 5 days and is now solidly in front of Kerry.

Tracking polls are supposed to give you a trend: the main trends here are that Dean is stable in the mid-30s and Clark has shot up to somewhere in the high teens and maybe even low 20s, while Kerry has had the floor pulled out from under him and is in danger of falling below double digits, and is now in a tie with loathesome Lieberman, who seems to have crawled up into the 8-10% range.

[Padraig18]

8. You are correct.

That is the 'bottom' line upon which ALL the polls agree.

[Melinda]

9. You talking to me?

LOL, save it for someone who asserts such an opinion. I've never claimed such a thing. Thanks for posting though. :hi:

[CMT]

10. but look at the battle for third

both Lieberman and Kerry have 10% each. If Kerry comes in fourth he is finished for sure, if Lieberman comes in third it will give him ammunition to continue.

also, ARG indicates that Dean has the strongest firm support with 89% followed by Kerry, Lieberman, and Clark and says that if Clark's soft support begins to break off it could be a three way battle for second between Clark, Kerry, and Lieberman.