Zogby Has Woody With A One Percent Lead...

[DemocratSinceBirth]

www.reuters.com


I'm starting to be suspicious of Zogby... I think he has "story lines" which he uses his polls to advance...


The storyline for 04 is a razor close election which won't break either way till the weekend before voting on Tuesday...


If anyone remembers Zogby was the only pollster who had Dean making a comeback in New Hampshire; a comeback which didn't come close to materializing...


He used the old pollster's trick of making sure his final poll reflected the actual results while most of the earlier polls showed a different race...

As we all know by manipulating the number of Dems, Reps, and Indys in your poll you can get any result you want...

[liberal N proud]

1. If these polls are right (and I don't think they are) this country is

so fucked up, it needs a revolution

[DemocratSinceBirth]

3. a new pres will be fine... revolutions usually don't turn out very nicely.

[WI_DEM]

2. you're going to be suspicious of any poll where Bush is leading

Tracking polls go up and down and one point lead is statistically insignificant--try not to sweat it.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

5. I Agree...

but Zogby was "playing games" in NH...


I wish somebody had his polls in the waning days of NH...


He was the only pollster who had a tightening race...


Miracously he had the final pre election poll about right...


I did post grad work in poli sci... I take this stuff seriously...


It's not a soap opera or passion play....

[DemocratSinceBirth]

7. By The Way

Zogby has Kerry losing four points in roughly the same time period that the Washington Post has him gaining four points..


That's evidence of two profoundly difference races...

That circle can't be squared...

[Jeff in Cincinnati]

4. Steady, Amigo

There's going to be a one-point wiggle on a daily basis for the next week or so.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

6. I Agree...

I am making a larger point with evidence to back it up...


I could be dead wrong but I think it's worth thinking about....

[still_one]

8. No change

Look at the bush unfavorable values, or that the people want someone new

Kerry is doing well