Bush cannot win!

[Riddler]

As long as we don't get complacent and cocky (like chimpy), there's no way Bush can win. The problem though, is that he can still steal it. We now have to work equally at hard at making sure it's not stolen from us as we do to make sure we win it!

[jtb33]

1. Dunno...

The problem arises that he is ahead by quite a bit in the Electoral College. The popular vote? Now that's another story.

[fishwax]

5. He's not ahead in the electoral college

that's like saying the Patriots are ahead in the Super Bowl because Las Vegas has them the odds-on favorite.

Both bush and Kerry are well short of having the 270 electoral votes sewn up. Bush leads in some states, Kerry in others, but in the close states like Ohio and PA, for every poll that gives the state to * you could find a different poll that was almost as recent that gives it to Kerry.

[jtb33]

6. Here...

http://www.electoral-vote.com/fin/oct14p.html

He took the link off the home page (not sure why).

[fishwax]

7. If I remember correctly

He took the link off the main page because he no longer believed that map was useful as a projection. It is interesting to consider, but shouldn't be considered authoritative, or anything near that. For a long time after he started his projections, for example, Oklahoma was projected to go for Kerry, b/c Kerry was only down twenty in the first poll, as opposed to the 30 or so points that Gore lost the state by.

Incidentally, the map on the main page isn't any more accurate, for precisely the reason I mentioned before. Currently the main page shows Ohio for Bush, but a poll that came out yesterday had Kerry ahead. Now that poll is outdated, so suddenly bush is much further ahead in the electoral college? No. That doesn't make sense. I like that site, and I check it every morning. But, while it is an interesting to keep tabs on, it is hardly an iron-clad representation of the way things are.

We should work hard, and work like a number of states which could decide the election are still up for grabs, because they are. But we shouldn't worry about being 56 votes down in the electoral college, because we aren't.

Just my thoughts. :hi:


(edited for atrocious syntax)

[fknobbit]

10. exellent point

Vegas odds reflect the oddsmakers opinion on how the public will bet. Has nothing at all to do with how the public will vote... and the line will move based on the publics wagers, bookmaker wins both ways..

[OneBlueSky]

2. maybe not . . . but he CAN steal . . .

happened before, and no reason to believe it won't happen again . . . look what's going on in Nevada, Oregon and Michigan, just for starters . . . and what's even more worrisome is what we DON'T know about . . .

[peter from vermont]

3. Watch Out for Voting Lawsuits

With people's consciousness raised by the 2000 fiasco, "voter protection strategies" in the works by both parties for this election (poll watchers and trained attorneys ready to pounce), and lots of confusion and controversy around various states' adminstration of the federal election law amendments of 2002, which required states to have some mechanism for "provisional voting" by people who show up but whose names on not on the voter rolls, we're looking, quite possibly, at a real mess, in many close states on 11/2. I hate to say it, bit I'm predicting a better than 50-50 chance of major lawsuits in several battleground states, which may make it impossibe to call a winner for at least as long as it took after the last election.

[Zinfandel]

4. He will steal it...Bush doesn't give a fuck what we think, as long as he

and the republican corporate fascist keep control and run this country for their greedy lying imperialistic agenda.

[grace0418]

8. He's sure as hell going to try to steal it.

My feeling is that Kerry will win by a landslide in reality, but because of all the cheating and voter fraud, the election will look much closer. In the end I think Kerry will prevail despite BushCo's best effort to cheat.

[harpo]

9. they will try, no bounds for these freaks