Will There Be Exit Polling At Paperless Precincts?

[KharmaTrain]

Someone asked me and now I pass this on to those who would know.

Since VNS no longer exists, who will be handling the exit polling, or will it be a free-for-all.

Also, if there is such polling, is there a way we or the Democratic party can monitor those specific precincts that have paperless systems to use as a cross-check?

Thanks for any responses.

[candy]

1. I'm in a paperless precinct but can't answer your question

I'll be looking forward to the answers received.

[On the Road]

2. There's a New Consortium That Will Do Exit Polling

I can't imagine that e-voting precincts will be exempt.

[KharmaTrain]

3. Will Those Precincts Be Isolated?

I would hope there's a way to double-check the results at these precincts and the exit-polling system would be the best defense to cross-check if the results the local board of elections lists for that precinct jives with what the exit polls do.

[On the Road]

4. I Don't Know if They'll Be Releasing It

if that's what you mean. It should definitely be encouraged. I seem to recall some comments about strange data patterns in individual e-voting precincts in the CA recall election, so maybe will be public knowledge.

[KharmaTrain]

6. Here's Why The Question Came Up..

Exit-polling is legal since it is done after the person votes and catches them outside the polling place fresh from voting. Shouldn't anyone who wants to do their own polling be able to set up in a public area near the polling place (within legal distance), poll those who come out and see how their results compare with the pubicly released results by the local board of elections.

We threw this around since we've covered elections and have seen how numbers are juggled and manipulated, and in this age of rapid numbers and no paper trail, there has to be a safety valve to validate the paperless system. How else can that be certified?

Not to say we're all cynics, but we're all cynics. No matter how Kerry does, we feel there's still going to be something within the last 24-48 hours of election day that's going to confuse and anger people....it's that darkness that Rove operates best.

[On the Road]

17. I Think Anyone Can Do It

the obstacle is one of cost. That's why exit polling is generally shared.

On the other hand, if there are certain polling locations that are questionable, and which are reported separately, it would be more manageable to poll those locations only.

[Hephaistos]

11. Not very encouraging

from an article in the Chicago Tribune (reg required):
http://www.chicagotribune.com/technology/reviews/chi-0401270205jan27,1,3842467.story?coll=chi-technologyreviews-hed

"I don't know what the AP is doing to ensure the data quality," Mitofsky said. "Maybe they're doing something, maybe they're not. But I'm not trusting anybody. I don't make the same mistake twice."

"You cannot have enough checks and balances," said Jack Stokes, a spokesman for the AP. "We're doing everything we can in terms of the things we have control over. But can we ensure we're getting accurate numbers from the precincts? No."


... and this from the ONLY org to do exit polling this time.

[genius]

5. Is this a Republican Corsortium?

[Hephaistos]

7. Here's the new consortium

with a description of the system:

http://www.exit-poll.net/election-night/exitpollsystem.html

Mr. Mitofsky, the main pollster, ran CBS News' election coverage from the 1960s to the 1980s, and appears to be well respected.

Interesting article on the technical background of the 2002 VNS failure here - I'm not sure I buy it, though:

http://www.baselinemag.com/article2/0,3959,826676,00.asp

[genius]

9. I'd feel more confortable if Jimmie Carter were involved

or perhaps Michael Moore.

[Hephaistos]

13. The OSCE is monitoring the election

but they won't do any exit polls, as far as I know.

(OSCE = "Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe")

[HFishbine]

8. Yes

Another company has replaced VNS. I contacted them about employment and learned these two things that should help you:

1) Yes, they will be polling at precincts with electronic voting machines.
2) They only poll every third voter, so anything they record (even if they'd share it) would not serve the purpose you had hoped for.

[genius]

10. The only way we can prove they cheated is if every Dem voter is polled

I think we should have paper boxes on the outside and those who voted for kerry should check off a "Yes, I voted for Kerry" card and stuff it and then we could see if the totals match.

[Hephaistos]

12. not a proof

Aside from being totally unworkable, the only thing needed to discredit this system would be for a couple hundred freepers to come forward and claim that they spoofed the system by saying the voted Dem on the exit poll while voting Repug on the actual ballot.

In any case, the exit poll doesn't count.

the only thing that works is a verifyable paper trail for every actual vote!

[depakid]

15. The sample size is is too large for that to be an issue

where DRE's are in place. If done properly, exit polling is quite accurate.

[KharmaTrain]

16. It's The Most Accurate

For some obvious reasons:

- At a polling place...chances your gonna catch register voters is quite likely. Also they are polled by the thousands all day long. These polls will be the proof of all our voter registration efforts.

- People are asked within minute of making their selections and studies have shown a vast majority are more than happy to share who they voted for and other demographic information (which can be visually verified) as compared to phone polling.

- People move around a lot, exit polling is the only real snapshot of the make-up of whose voting in that election where other polling methods don't take that important factor...especially when it comes to handicapping the 2008 election.

The AP group sounds like they're going to make an attempt at being credible, but they're not obligated to look for discrepencies as opposed to a Democratic team whose purpose is to keep track of those specific precincts so the local GOOPies know they better play fair for once.

I'm sure hoping this question is nothing more than shooting the shit...but it does bring up some loose ends that I hope someone with far greater smarts and resources than I is watching.

[against all enemies]

14. It doesn't freaking matter. The exit polls got it right last time,

and after the election they were faulted for being WRONG. What a f___ing joke. Better to ask how they will do a recount in those precincts without paper backup.