Rasmussen Battleground Polls Move Toward Kerry, National Away

[louis c]

Rasmussen 3 day tracking national polling numbers for 10/14 have Bush at 48.1% and Kerry at 45.9%. This is a 0.8% Bush gain from yesterday. All the polling data for today is pre-debate.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com

Zogby's 3 day national tracking poll for the same period has Bush at 46% and Kerry at 45%.

http://zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=885

Rasmussen's 7 day rolling averages of 5 key battleground states has better news:

Florida, Bush 47%-45% (This is a 1 point Kerry gain, and the eighth day in a row that Kerry has either picked up points, or kept pace and a 5 point gain in a week)

Ohio, Bush 49%-47% (This is a 2 point Kerry gain from yesterday, and the closest he's been in 10 days)

Michigan, Kerry 48%-46% (This is a 1 point Bush gain from yesterday, and 2 points in 2 days)

Minnesota, Kerry 48%-45% (This is a 1 point Kerry gain from yesterday, and matches his largest lead here in at least 10 days)

Pennsylvania, Kerry 47%-46% (This is unchanged from yesterday)

I really believe that these states will determine the winner. Especially Penn, Fla, and Ohio. Which ever candidate carries two of these three states will win. I like our chances.

[TimeToGo]

1. Odd though

The Bush gains make so little sense. Everything reported so far is that the undecideds are not moving towards Bush, so hos is he gaining?

[IIgnoreNobody]

2. He's gaining in Utah, Texas, Alabama, etc.

[HFishbine]

3. Hey

Thanks for posting these and keeping us up to date.

[MatrixEscape]

4. A few factors

will have an impact that are not in the polls, right?

1) Overseas and expat absentee
2) New registrations (large Dem turnout)
3) Those with no land lines potentially missing in polls.

Military absentee is a tossup to me. I think they will go Kerry based on their experience, but then, there are those who may brainwashed or coerced playing strains of "Hail to the Chief".