WTF? Kerry leads in FOX 50-48, AP/WP 48-46, GALLUP 50-48, AP 50-46...so

[TruthIsAll]

how the hell does ZOGBY have Bush leading 46-45?

WTF?

http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/

[LittleClarkie]

1. It's either a hiccup

or Zogby has gone Dark Side on us.

[Renew Deal]

2. I don't think he has gone ot the dark side.

Let's see.

[59millionmorons]

6. No No No

Yesterday Kerry lost one of his big days and tomorrow he will be tied or on top because Bush will of lost his big day from Monday.

[Tamyrlin79]

23. What was his big day from Monday?

I don't know what you're refering to...

[Media_Lies_Daily]

32. Huh?? May I have that in English please?

[AngryLizard]

5. And I think it was taken the day before the debate, too

Plus,could it be more within the margin of error?

Let's see what the next one says.

[Chiyo-chichi]

43. Yes, it is within the margin of terror.

[TexasSissy]

45. Zogby 10/15/04 is Bush 48% Kerry 44% (not 46 - 45, that was last one)

And undecided is still 6% (damn those undecideds, unless of course they end up voting for Kerry)

Presidential Candidates %
Oct 12-Oct 14
Oct 11-Oct 13
Oct 10-Oct 12

Republican - George W. Bush
48
46
45

Democrat - John Kerry
44
45
45

Independent - Ralph Nader
1.1
1
1.5

Libertarian - Michael Badnarik
.7
.7
.5

Constitution - Michael Peroutka
--
--
.2

Green - David Cobb
.1
--
.1

Other
.5
.4
.8

Undecided
6
7
7

[DaveinMD]

3. its because

of one weird day in the sample.

[Downtown Hound]

4. All right! And...

I wouldn't worry too much about Zogby.

[lancdem]

7. Fox has Kerry up 2?

Do you have a link for that? (BTW, the ABC tracking poll has it 48-48, same aa yesterday.)

[jefferson_dem]

8. Gonna ask that myself. Fox still has an old poll up on their website.

Link?

[VoteJohn04_com]

37. FOX and the ultimate FLIP FLOP!

Fox has been being overly nice lately to Kerry/Edwards...

Makes me wonder if they've decided Bush is on the way
out and they need to start sucking up to the new Administration
to make up for that whole Fox News thing in 2000 where they
called it for the shrub and started this whole nightmare!

Might also explain why they are getting the fine from
Bush's FCC--Punishment perhaps.

[realcountrymusic]

9. A one point move within the MOE

don't mean shit. Kerry could be ahead by 2 or 3 and Zogby didn't catch it. He could be behind by 2 or 3 and the others didn't catch it.

Forget the MOE, forget the polls. We have momentum. Poll watching is a distraction, and it's fun when we're ahead. But poll-anxiety is debilitating.

It's all about GOV, not MOE

End of motivational speech

RCM

[zoeb]

10. Anyone think these numbers have anything to do with the

release of F911? just curious about what everyone thought.

[Guaranteed]

11. Since Zogby uses voter affiliation to conduct his polls,

people can manipulate them by declaring their affiliation with the other party.

[Senjutsu]

12. It could just be that 20th time out of 20 (nm)

[TomNickell]

13. Undecideds?

Zogby has 9% undecided our Other. The other polls have 2-4% undecided or other.

A difference in how hard they push for an answer......

[DaveinMD]

17. the other polls

count leaners in candidate totals. Zogby probably does not.

[dolstein]

14. You need to learn a thing or two about polls

All of these polls have margins of error. The day to day fluctuations within this margin of error don't really mean anything. You have to look at long-term trends, and these appear to be going in Kerry's direction.

[TruthIsAll]

15. No kidding. Now tell me something I don't know.

Polls fluctuate. MOE. No kidding. It's called "tongue-in-cheek".

I have been one of Zogby's biggest supporters around here. Harris and Zogby were the closest to predicting the election in 2000. They will be right there again this time, also.

And he will have Kerry up there in the lead very shortly.

[Teaser]

16. statistics books are available

at every local library.
In them you will learn about fluctuation.

[TruthIsAll]

22. Thanks. I better look into that.

tia

[Vox_Reason]

18. Let's take the energy we expend obsessing about polls

And put it into GETTING OUT THE FREAKING VOTE.

NOTHING matters more than that.

NOTHING.

[MoonRiver]

19. Polls are all asinine and bogus?

Their sampling sizes are ridiculously small and methodology in the pitts?

:shrug:

[tinanator]

20. damn right

undemocratic, inaccurate and inherently evil.

[DemFromMem]

21. If we do our job, we've got a 5 point cushion

I'm really convinced that if we get a solid turnout, we'll do about five points better than the polls suggest. Why?

1. Immigrant voters overwhelmingly support Kerry this year - Hispanics and Muslims in particular - and the are not picked up in the polls. 3 million people have naturalized just since the last election.

2. Higher general turnout favors the Dems. Republicans normally get out there base and they just done have the room to grow that much in this area. Democrats historically have had a harder time. If the pundits are right, we've got an advantage here.

3. Younger voters have in the past been better for the GOP. With the draft and inroads made in the 90s with this group, its natural Democratic territory. Polls don't pick up younger voters and we've all seen the reasons why on the threads.

Right now, we can be VERY pleased with where we are. If we can nudge up the poll numbers one or two more points, this will equate to a decisive win for Kerry.

[shelley806]

24. Prediction model

THE ELECTION MODEL

Created by TruthIsAll

Last update: Oct.14, 2004


Election Model Projections

(Base Case Assumption: Kerry wins 60% of the undecided/other vote)



Monte Carlo Electoral Vote Simulation Model

Kerry Expected Electoral Vote: 316

Weighted Popular Vote: 50.90%

Win Probability: 96.8%

(Kerry EV wins / 5000 election trials)



Independent National Model (9 polls)

Kerry Projected Popular Vote: 50.96%

Win Probability: 96.5%

(National vote majority)



Independent and Corporate National Model (18 polls)

Kerry Projected Popular Vote: 51.08%

Win Probability: 99.8%

(National vote majority)



Bush Job Approval Ratings

Eleven Poll Average: 48.38%

I interpreted this as Bush job approval is less than 50% (bad news for Bush) and if Kerry gets 60% of the undecided/other votes, then there is a greater than 90% chance of his winning. If this isn't correct, let me know. To me, it looks great.

[TruthIsAll]

33. You have it just right. Actually, I don't use Bush approval in the

win probability calculations. The monthly ratings are included to provide the most complete picture possible as we head into the final stretch.

His falling ratings are probably the best indicator that he's headed for defeat. The fact that they are falling now, after having risen the last few months, is very telling.

And his reelect is in the low to mid-forties. It won't as close as the media is trumpeting.

The pundits say it's tied, but in fact Kerry has the BIG MO and could very well get 67-75% of the undecided. Kerry's EV, vote and probabilities for these assumptions are on the first report page in the model.

tia

[shelley806]

35. Thank you for the explanation

I didn't realize until after I had posted this that the title of the report was your name! Embarrassing, but I had already posted it. I was trying to help you out and you had come up with the model!!!!

GREAT NEWS FOR KERRY!

[bush equals idiot]

39. Absolutely.

One per cent is nothing. He'll pick up the trend of all the others post debate. If Zogby starts showing 6-7% then I'm a gonna worry. There will be prostitutes on Pluto before that happens.

[geek tragedy]

25. They probably push leaners harder to pick a candidate.

Assume that the undecideds break in favor of Kerry, Zogby probably extrapolates to 50-51% for Kerry.

[NewYorkerfromMass]

26. Indeed Zogby does do that. eom

[geek tragedy]

28. Actually, I meant that Zogby has more undecideds.

Remember, what is important is *'s total level of support.

Zogby matches the others in that vital category.

[NewYorkerfromMass]

30. But Zogby does push "leaners" (not undecideds)

I read this somewhere before. Sorry if it doesn't make sense here. Perhaps my recollection is off.

[geek tragedy]

31. My larger point is that Zogby's results make sense when compared to the

other polls.

They all have * polling at about the same level.

[pa28]

27. The other polls may give a clue to the trendline.

But Zogby gets it right at the end of the day and his polls never seem to indicate knee-jerk fluctuations. I think you will see Zogby begin to reflect Kerry's momentum in the coming days.

[w4rma]

29. Bah polls are a waste of time. Footwork isn't. (nt)

[autorank]

34. Zogby: Theoretically, every 20 polls has one poll in error.

If you're doing daily traking polls, every 20 days, one of the polls is in error. No big deal. The major news here is that JFK is up in all the others. Zogby will be back on track, fear not.

[TruthIsAll]

36. In fact, 46-45 is within the MOE. Let me clear this up.

Those of you who are familiar with my posts know that I'm a Zogby fan. The purpose of this post was not to be critical of Zogby.

After all, whether he has it 46-45,46-46,or 45-46 is irrelevant. And it would be so if the spread were 2-3 points.

I just wanted to show that the mediawhores, whom I have bashed repeatedly, now have Kerry ahead, while Zogby, one of the few reliable posters, has him behind. It just seemed too ironic not to take notice.

Now if Zogby had Bush leading 50-42, then I would have been seriously upset.

tia

[autorank]

38. Irony well taken.

I'm sure the mediawhores will just ignore the new results. If Zogby had Bush 50-42, that would exacerbate my early seasonal Raiders depression to epic proportions. I'll really start to worry if your simulations show our guy behind. BTW, I showed your geocities site to an uber-nerd/hacker friend of mine during the debate last night. He reviewed all the charts and quipped, "Well, of course, Monte Carlo simulations are the only logical way to do this sort of thing." Keep up the good work.

[LimpingLib]

40. Ill be so damn glad when this election is over.

First of all , our obsession with polls (and issues be damned)is already rotten enough but when I see people (who should know better) gpo crazy over a poll that is 100% in line with others then I could almost swear Ill never listen to anymore commentary on polls by partisans my entire life.

MOE=4.5% in my world. Ive saturated myself in stupid partisan politics and poll obsession myself but the authors thread is about the most annoying one I have seen in ages (man does that say ALOT). Maybe its just the icing on the cake (or straw that broke the camels back) and not the most annoying perhaps.

Besides , Zogby clearly uses different scoring methods allowing for high number of undecideds instead of forcing leaners to decide.

EDIT:OOPs I just saw the comment saying it was irony. Still I cant stand polls anymore.Had it up to here.

[TruthIsAll]

41. Zogby has Bush leading 48-44 today

Not good.

[TruthIsAll]

42. Look at the 18 poll average; Zogby will reverse, I'm sure

tia

[TexasSissy]

44. I thought Zogby was 48 Bush to 44 Kerry?