Bush opens 4 point lead on Kerry in new Zogby/Reuters poll 48 -44

[jezebel]

http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml?type=topNews&storyID=6512573
Sorry if already posted, and sorry for the bad news. Hopefully it was just an awful polling day yesterday.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

1. Oh Geez... I Saw It But Didn't Post It...

Either this poll is an outlier or Kerry's lesbian statement hurt us...


Zogby says the gender gap has disappeared... The Washington Post says it twelve percent...


This sucks....

[jezebel]

5. and Bush has taken the lead in young voters. WTF is that? I really hope

the Cheney crap is not doing this. I would think the Kerry camp is doing their own polling and if it is, he could apologize if someone took offense (sort of without apologizing for his statement since it wasn't wrong)

[DemocratSinceBirth]

6. I Could Give A Rat's Ass If Kerry Said Mary Cheney Was A Bank Robber...

I want to win this election...

[jezebel]

7. I agree, but if he has to say something to appease the weak undecideds or

leaners, then say it. And say it NOW. All 3 morning shows led off with this crap again today. And you know cable did too. This needs to stop being the story.

[Free2BMe]

15. No ...the only thing the rebubs had to criticize from the debate...

and it was a sincere observation of an issue...which by the way was all "truth" and not news...no apology please...they can't find any issues to contest...it's called grovelling.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

23. I'd Apologize For Being A Human If That Could Defeat Bush (nt)

[Free2BMe]

37. Not necessary, they don't know what that is...

[auburngrad82]

48. The poll is skewed.

It's not a phone poll. You can sign up to participate. I signed up specifically to try to up Kerry's numbers. Rove mentioned that we should watch the Zogby poll. Do you doubt for a minute that the repugs are making a huge effort to sway the polls by having their people sign up in large numbers? That was my reason for signing up. The repugs have just figured it out and are trying to scare people or influence the few remaining undecideds by fixing the polls in Shrub's favor.

[Roland99]

58. Where does it state this is not a phone poll but, rather, an online poll?

[DemocratSinceBirth]

63. It's A Phone Poll (nt)

[BeatleBoot]

2. This is not good for Bush

He's the incumbent...he should be leading by more than that.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

4. Bad News For Bush....

He was losing by three points in that poll on Sunday....

[LynnTheDem]

3. Because more US troops were killed.

Everytime bush's disasters get WORSE, bush's poll numbers go up.

Imagine if 911 had happened under Clinton; can you see the rightwingnuttery saying we MUST re-elect Clinton as ONLY CLINTON can keep us safe???!!

Party uber alles...SIG HEIL! SIG HEIL! SIG HEIL!

[JanLip]

9. Lynn, is that you?

It's Jan from the DB message board..and if you're not please excuse me...:hi:

[LynnTheDem]

21. Hey Jan!!!

Howdy! Yep it's meeeee! :D How ya doing, girlfriend!


:hi:

[JanLip]

53. HEY LYNN....

I sure have missed you on that other board. I thought maybe you were here. Is Joanne here too? How's it going? Everything is okay here in the Midsouth. Lots of Kerry supporters. People are being quiet about it though. My mom and uncle helped get several people to register. I printed the voter registration forms (mail in) for them. I believe folks are going to have a rude awakening come NOv. 3rd. People are riled up at the Repugs and their "fearless" leader down my way.

:bounce:

[LynnTheDem]

55. She's here

somewhere...not seen her much lately.

I need to get my butt back to Doug's board; it was just a lack of time for awhile, and I really needed a break after all the RWW crap. I just got so fed up with Whitewidow & co, they tainted the entire board for me (bad experience).

In our area of Texas we aren't seeing any idiot/idiot lawn signs; a few truck/SUV bumper stickers but that's about it. Most hubby's army unit are voting for Kerry and all the clerks at our local grocery store hate bush's guts. Which is why it takes me hours to do groceries...gotta get my "we hate REALLY REALLY HATE bush" fix of gossip. :D

[Kolesar]

8. Bush still does not have 50%, he is still in trouble

People are not backing Bush.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

10. We Need To Stop Spinning Ourselves...

We lost seven fucking points in that poll in less than a week...

[fujiyama]

14. So what should we do about it?

It's one poll. People here worship at the altar of Zogby. I really seriously doubt that after a debate that most said Kerry won, Bush ended up picking up that much ground.

IF he did, then the people are fuckin retarded and this nation has little hope left.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

20. I Don't Know What To Do...

At least I am on the record as saying we need to look at all the polls in their entirety...


That being sad I guess the Cheney brouhaha has hurt us...


I could give a rat's ass if Kerry said she was a kleptomaniac if it helped us at the polls...


This sucks....

[fujiyama]

25. I'll agree

that I don't like to see bad polls either, but tracking polls can be volatile and kinda wacky. A bunch of other polls the other day had Kerry up by one-three points. The full effect of this Cheney's daughter thing can only be seen a week or so from now.


I'm still going to say that when it comes to the national popular vote, it's pretty much a dead heat, with a slight edge for Kerry.

I will admit though, that I'm worried about the battleground states (WI, IA, NM, and FL, and OH especially)...I'm somewhat pessimistic about NV, CO, and AR...inspite of Zogby's close numbers in that state.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

28. We'll Continue Our Discussion...

I'll leave you with this pearl of wisdom...


Never underestimate the ability of the American people to focus on minutiae (the Cheney brouhaha) at the expense of much more important matters...


I am going to work out and think about something else...

This election is consuming me....


Peace

Brian

[fujiyama]

31. I don't blame you

It's driving me nuts as well. I'm losing sleep over it.

I'm so disgusted with the way the media has handled this rather than focus on the fact that Bush mentioned that Osama isn't a threat several years ago and then lied about saying that during the debate. They played it immediately after the debates, but it seems to have been lost.

It makes me so sick. If the people fall for this shit, there is something more wrong with the people than I originally thought.

[0007]

38. I think you may be right on both points -

Organized crime does have that effect, 'ya know?

[insidious]

11. The poll of 1,220 likely voters....

1,220 likely voters? This means that Kerry is in trouble? Give me a break. What's next? Are they going to poll 500 pygmy voters from Swaziland? Excuse my french but fuck this poll too.

[fujiyama]

12. Blah

One day with weird polling results and everyone flips. Calm down. In two weeks the thing will go up and down by 3 or 4 points. It'll be tied in a few days.

I'm still willing to bet anyone that Bush will not win the popular vote.

[jezebel]

16. It's not just the one day it is the trend of Zogby. Kerry has dropped from

47 to 44 over the last 5 days. AWOL has gone from 44 up to 48 in the same time. The trend is not our friend.

[fujiyama]

18. Didn't the Washington Post

have it going the other way?

Even good pollsters get it wrong. The guy did have CA really close a few days before the '00 election.

[jezebel]

22. Yesterday Kerry lost one point on the WP poll. He had been going up before

that.

[WI_DEM]

13. This spike includes one day post debate

It must have been a very good polling day for Bush on Thursday. How could anyone who saw the debates--all three of them--want Bush? and WTF is with Democrats? only 79% for Kerry compared to 89% for Bush among Republicans? I'm so sick of fickle Democrats. I can't see how this Mary Cheney thing could hurt this much. I guess four years of incompetence is forgiven if you publically mention that the VP daughter is a lesbian.

[Zynx]

17. If Kerry had the same loyalty, he would be tied in this poll.

[DemNoir]

19. You really have to ask what is wrong with democrats?

One day in this snake pit tells you everything you need to know.

[helpisontheway]

26. Ugh.........

Damn..what the hell is wrong with these people? This is not good news. Especially since a news show showed the other day that Zogby is the one poll that more evenly polls Dems/Republicans. :-(

[helpisontheway]

27. We are fooling ourselves if we think

this is not bad news. First Bush gained a point yesterday and we said it was just one day. Then he gains 3 more pts n a day and we are still saying it was just a mistake. It seems Bush is gaining momentum again after those sucky debate performances. I'm so pissed right now.

[unfrigginreal]

30. Bullshit

I saw 8 point swings against Gore in 2000 and we all know how that turned out.

[JI7]

24. when Kerry said people being gay was God's choice

the stuff Kerry said about gays being that way because God made them that way. i think for the anti gay crowd, that did more to turn them off than mentioning cheney's daughter. many of these people go by the "love the sinner but hate the sin" saying. but what kerry said meant it's not a sin to be gay, and rather something which is a result of god.

remember, america is pretty backwards as compared to other "developed" nations.

[agingdem]

29. Here we go again...

let's remember that the Kerry campaign in a grass-roots campaign and has been since day one. The votes are there...Zogby be damned. Now for the Mary Cheney thing...the GOP outcry is extremely disingenious...it makes them look like the homophobes that they are...next week it will be something else. Let's redirect our energies somewhere else...look what we (all of us) have done to Sinclair. It's time to focus on Bush the Nutcase...he drools, he cackles, he rages,...in other words WHAT'S WRONG WITH GEORGE?

[fujiyama]

32. Agreed - the Sinclair thing

should be much more of a concern. I think over time this Cheney's daughter thing will die out. It will have to! What more can be said? It was already well known that she was a lesbian.

[sendero]

40. There is just one problem...

... with your analysis. You assume the rank-and-file American ISN'T a homophobe. That is an assumption that can easily be challenged.

My stomach sank when Kerry made that comment, I think that there shouldn't be anything wrong with saying it but I knew viscerally that the RW would be right on it. Dick can talk about his daughter, Kerry cannot. I don't know what is so damn hard to understand about that.

Remember, being "right" has nothing to do with getting the favor of the American voter. If it did, Kerry would be ahead 90%/10%.

This doesn't mean I'm "mad" at Kerry, he made a small miscalculation. And while I believe in the "relative" meaning of the polls (i.e. Zogby last week compared to this week DOES mean something), I don't believe in the absolute meaning of the polls - in other words, that they accurately reflect who would be elected.

This race is going to be close until Nov 2, and we all might as well get used to it.

[JI7]

41. well,Kerry talked about Bush's daughters also

and there wasn't any problem with that.

[sendero]

44. When I say...

..."talk about", let me clarify that the actual subjects discussed and the tenor of the comments is relevant.

Kerry has not talked about the Bush* daughter's love of drink, which would IN MANY IF NOT MOST AMERICAN'S EYES, be equivalent to him discussing the sexual orientation of Mary Cheney.

I'm not questioning for a second the fact that the RW is wrong about this, and that Kerry did nothing wrong. I'm just pointing out that this plays with way too many Americans and Kerry really should have known that.

[montana500]

66. wow, what a bunch of whiners!

You all need to fucking chill!

My god. One negative polls comes out and you are all ready to jump off the ledge?

Did anyone here realy think the race would be a blowout? If you did, you were smoking crack.

[devinsgram]

33. Time to use the hide the thread button.

[Cheswick2.0]

34. wow, major freeperage on this thread

This poll is fairly meaningless.

[JI7]

35. may i ask why you say that ?

[unfrigginreal]

36. Two that I can see for sure

[Davis_X_Machina]

39. Red states getting redder, most likely

or there'd be a corresponding movement in the favorable/unfavorable numbers.

The shift in undecideds, from 1-in-6 to 1-in-4 leaning Bush, isn't much of an improvement, if they historically break for the challenger 3-1.

[jbond56]

45. yall crack me up

mute the tv and watch the body language.

The administration is nervous at best.

He even meet with the press on the plane.

polls will lag behind.

They spent 90 million bucks painting Kerry as a flip flopper. Kerry broke that apart in 90 minutes.

They also spent years carefully crafting the public image of the President. Now he is running scared. We saw 3 different people in the debates, 4 if you count the major policy speech. He even flip flopped on his debate tie.

If you are scared get off your ass and volunteer.

[Julien Sorel]

42. The U.S. invaded Fallujah.

Something tells me that had more to do with any move in public sentiment (and this is only one poll) than Mary Cheney. Do some of you really think that many people would change their mind because of one statement over a relatively minor issue?

People need to calm down. Following the polls slavishly is a sure way to make yourself miserable.

[unfrigginreal]

46. I can't imagine this has anything to do with the Cheney comment either.

ABC just released a poll showing the opposite trend so Zogby may just be a one day polling aberration that will disappear in 3 days time.

[johncoby2]

43. Thanks. Nothing like pissing on the campfire.

Why dont you do something constructive like block walking?

[DemocracyInaction]

47. Looks like we both came here at the same time

I just about dropped my teeth. If you take a look at my post I put some other stats there about other polls announced.

[liberal N proud]

49. This can't be true

These polls are total bush shit.
There is no FUCKING way you could put on performance like the three debates and go up in the polls.
What the Fuck is going on with this country, if these numbers are even remotely close, This is a sick land.

[JBB555]

51. Performance in the debates vs voter reaction

OK, I'm a new guy here, so be gentle. I just couldn't bear to sit by quietly any longer. I watched the debates, all of em. Our guys handled the competition easily. But I was watching a review group and their reaction to the debate last night. At the end the guy running the group asked who won the debate (discussing the third)and 3/4 of the room correctly answered that Kerry had won the debate. Then he asked for a show of hands of who was voting for Kerry, and who was voting for Shrub. The majority of people raised their hands indicating they were voting for someone OTHER than Kerry. WTF is wrong with people??? They readily admit that Kerry won the debate, but won't vote for him??

We have to get out in the next two weeks and beat the bushes(He He:P)and pound the streets for our guys. If everyone here would get one person to change their minds then we wouldn't have to worry about what the polls say now.

[Shopaholic]

50. Check out this thread-what Rove said after Wednesday's Debate. . .

"Watch Zogby"

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x1076950

My guess is that the Repugs have signed up a ton of people to do the Zogby poll through the internet e-mail thing that Zogby does. I think that's how this poll has ended up "freeped".

[Cats Against Frist]

60. Makes perfect sense

Why else would Rove say that? Is he some kind of fucking swami, now?

It would also explain a couple of things: if you were freeping a poll, you'd register as a female dem, and support Bush -- which would explain some of the internals there, as well.

I think we know what to do, eh?

[DaveinMD]

52. this is one weird day in a sample

this happens with tracking polls because they poll about 300 people a day. That is a extremely small sample. The blip will even out over the next few days. Don't worry about it.

[cspiguy]

54. Denial is not what is needed - Action is

this game is still afoot, fellow travellers. If you think the debates won it for Kerry - you are complacent.

[ArkDem]

56. Zogby is a right wing pollster. Ignore this.

[Zuni]

57. How much stock do you put in to 1 freakin' poll?

I am sorry, but this poll only sampled a few hundred voters.
And Rove did mention to 'watch Zogby'---perhaps he knew that the polls were being manipulated in advance?
Either way, do not let 1 poll freak you out.

[Teaser]

59. READ THIS OR I KILL THIS CAT...

People...tracking polls show variations. It's what they do. A poll does not measure public opinion, it *approximates* public opinion, and there is error in that approximation.

This error is more or less distributed along a bell curve, which means that some days you're going to have big fluctuations in the error.

A few days ago we were up 3 on Bush. Today we're down 4. Both of these represent fluctuations around a mean value which is, more or less, tied.

Do you understand? Do you need pictures? A catchy jingle?

My God, the FreakRepublic-ans don't act as much like ninnies as we do. What is wrong with us?

[Demi_Babe]

61. from the Zogby poll report - READ

Slight weights were added to region, party, age, race, religion, gender, to more accurately reflect the voting population. Margins of error are higher in sub-groups.

[Tippy]

62. Two or three days ago I got a poll from Zogby

That I was unable to complete...got another this morning and had trouble with it...I did send and e-mail to zogby...because I have never experienced any problems before....not wanting to put my tin foil hat on but.............I did get the one today completed but it took for ever and the next page was not loading properly

[calico1]

65. I didn't complete the last ones.

One had a lot of questions about eggs, and the last one had even more bizarre questions. Plus, I don't always have the time. Wonder how many other people just got tired of doing this poll, especially with the egg questions and all that? Also, as it has been suggested I bet a lot of freepers signed up to take the poll. How can this poll be scientific when you have to sign up online to take it? How many people are there that are not signed up?

[seaj11]

64. sorry for a dumb question but...

I haven't been keeping up on the news since the last debate. What exactly did Kerry say about Mary Cheney that the media is all over?

[JBB555]

67. He said...

He said she was a LESBIAN for Gods sake. Whats the big deal??
Has this offended gays thruout the country? I would think they would be more offended by Shrub and his last 4 years of trying to oppress them.

[SmokeyTheBear]

68. this seems like it's starting to be a trend :-(

this sucks! it seems like Bush is starting to pull away.... i saw 2 other polls today that both said over 20% of people thinkg Bush can handle the war on terror better :-(