Zogby Poll is out - not good news

[unfrigginreal]

Reuters Poll: Bush Opens Four-Point Lead on Kerry
Fri Oct 15, 2004 07:01 AM ET
By John Whitesides, Political Correspondent

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - President Bush opened a four-point lead on Democratic Sen. John Kerry the day after the final debate between the White House rivals, according to a Reuters/Zogby poll released on Friday.

Bush led Kerry 48-44 percent in the latest three-day tracking poll, which included one night of polling done after Wednesday's debate in Tempe, Arizona. Bush led Kerry, a senator from Massachusetts, by only one point, 46-45 percent, the previous day.

An improvement in Bush's showing among undecideds and a strong response from his base Republican supporters helped fuel the president's rise.

"The good news for the president is that he has improved his performance among the small group of undecideds," said pollster John Zogby, who found 6 percent of likely voters are undecided. "Nearly a quarter now say that he deserves to be re-elected, up from 18 percent in our last poll."

Zogby said the difference between Kerry's 79 percent support among Democrats and Bush's 89 percent support from Republicans also should be "worrisome" for Kerry in such a tight race.

http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml?type=topNews&storyID=6512573

[coloradodem2005]

1. Why?

How is this happening? Are people really that fucking stupid?

[sniffa]

3. must be cuz kerry caLLed mary cheney a dirty word

how dare he!?

[unfrigginreal]

7. I'm not sure, but looking for an answer I found this Kos Diary from yest.

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2004/10/14/85852/612

[sniffa]

2. if it's any consoLation (good news)

newsmax is sending out emaiLs to get their readers onto zogby's poLLing List, adding "don't Let the LiberaLs skew the poLLs any Longer!"

[TexasSissy]

21. That's for Zogby's INTERACTIVE polls. What this post is about is

polling by Zogby by telephone. At least, I THINK so.

[Zynx]

4. I don't believe it for a second.

Nor am I worried.

[devinsgram]

13. Thank you and I'll join you on that.

[bushisanidiot]

5. Nice try, repukes. But, the public isn't buying it. Election day will

prove you wrong.

[TheWebHead]

6. Bush beat lowered expectations

since he didn't fuck up as bad as the first debate, he's gaining back some of that support he lost. We'll have to win by higher turnout.

[WI_DEM]

8. Looks like saying the name "Mary Cheney" is what fed the

post-debate spin. Hopefully this will blow over in a couple of days.

[KittyWampus]

22. No, It Did NOT. If You Think This Is What Got Covered From Debate

and that Zogby is to be trusted... then please step away from the computer for a few days and turn off your cable and forget politics for a while.

The gullibility around here is sad.

[ClintonTyree]

9. Look further................

into Zogby's data and you'll find that Bush does not have the Electoral College Votes to win, while it shows that Kerry does. Although this news is somewhat vexing, it is no reason to panic. As election day nears I believe this aberration will correct itself.

[WI_DEM]

10. true

but these national numbers are newer than the state numbers, but one day of bad polling doesn't mean it will last. Bush was down by four a few days ago and now he is up by four--tracking polls do this. We will have to see if there is a trend.

[vickie]

11. Didn't Zogby actually say that * polled well in the previous

few days and that it would take a couple of days for this to roll through?

[unfrigginreal]

12. Where did you see/hear that?

Do you remember? Maybe we can get a link or video of it.

[vickie]

14. Sorry, I don't rememmber. I think it was on one of this week's

reports.

[tritsofme]

23. The problem is that Zogby's national numbers are based upon a proven

methodology that has done very well in the past 2 presidential elections, whereas his state polls are not reliable and have never been tested.

This lead could just be noise, but we need to see it dissipate within a week.

[Freddie Stubbs]

30. Just sit tight and wait

In a few days more state polls will be released. That will give us a much better idea of how things are going.

[secular_warrior]

15. I wouldn't make too much of this -- it's only one poll

When a poll shows a change, we need to step back and ask ourselves if there was anything fundamental that caused a change, or if it's simply a fluke poll.

The week before the debate was pretty slow where nothing really would've affected the race, which was basically tied but showed momentum for Kerry. These few days after the debate are slow as well.

The debate is the only thing I see that could affect the race but the tracking polls won't truly reflect what that is until the weekend (at the earliest).

Judging on how the debates went, I don't see Kerry losing any ground because of them. If anything, he would gain. Most post debate polls showed him winning decisively.

Its always best to focus on the big picture -- several different polls, the trends, news events, common sense, your own gut feelings about how the race is going -- rather than the little things like a strange poll, or one day stories on slow news days (e.g. the Mary Cheney thing).

ps. If I believed things really looked bad for Kerry I would say so. I care more about constructive, honest observation/analysis/criticism than rah-rah cheerleading, as most of us do.

[annabanana]

16. Outlier......see others........n/t

[Starlight]

17. Some think poll numbers = campaign donations

I read in the Minneapolis Star Tribune where Republicans were whining that they thought that paper's "Minnesota Poll" was slanted to the left. Their complaint was that the perceived underdog tends to lose campaign support & donations if he's down in the polls & it looks like he's not going to win. Obviously, if the GOP feels this is the case, they will do whatever they can to make sure polls are slanted in their favor. x(

IMO there are also some individuals who will vote for whomever they perceive to be the likely winner because they don't want to support a "loser." :eyes:

[Ducks In A Row]

18. let the rethugs have their fun

it will lull them on nov 2

[montana500]

20. no probs at all folks

Zogby hit a Bush support patch. It happens, especially when you have all those 4 point red states in the west and south.


What Zogby and others should really do is only poll battleground states. I dont give a fuck what some idiot in Texas thinks (no offense to non idiots in texas).

[tritsofme]

24. NY CA and IL

Pretty much offset places like Texas and the sparsley populated Western states.

[pelagius]

19. The only poll that matters is taken on NOVEMBER 2...

...and the rest are a distraction.

As has been noted many times here on DU, pollsters are not able to reliably capture the opinions of new-registered and first-time voters. That and a margin of error make this a dead even heat as far as I'm concerned.

Do not despair! Work harder! Eyes on the prize!

[StickNCA]

25. This makes no sense and is at odds with the online polls

Kerry was a HUGE winner in all the online polls I voted in.

[TexasSissy]

26. I don't believe it. Just doesn't make sense. Something's wrong.

[Norbert]

27. Still Kerry had a good week plus Oil price and Stocks woes,

plus the ongoing bloody mess in Iraq and Chimpy opens up a lead. :shrug: I know it's only one poll but shit, what does Kerry have to do.

[59millionmorons]

28. 48-44

This means that on Tues,Wed, and Thursday Bush had to be averaging +4 a day for three day's. So this has nothing to do with Mary Cheney. So if he is averaging +4 a day, they will staart to fall off rapidly and you could se a big swing for kerry.

[bush equals idiot]

29. Tonight's news will almost certainly be broadcasting the poll

that shows our allies, except for possibly Israel, do not want Bush to be president. By huge margins. This will be shock to most people and start to open some eyes.

[DaveinMD]

31. Again

its a messed up sample in one day of a three day tracking poll. There are 300 people in the daily sample. That is a small sample and subject to an outlyer. Tomorrow's sample should even out and within 4 days Kerry will be in the lead.

[mvd]

32. As much as I have liked Zogby..

I think these numbers can be considered suspect. I have seen no legitimate polls averaging +4 for Bush that long. I have a feeling tomorrow will be better.