It's GOTV time.

[Gavinicus]

I don't cotton to polls. They don't tell you what is. At best, they tell you trends and opportunities to compare data.

The Votemaster at the Electoral Vote Predictor reports on a poll taken by Ohio University. It asks the same people who they intend to vote for and then gradually determines how likely they are to vote with two standard questions (are they registered and are they "certain or almost certain" to vote). The results tell us that the public at large is strongly for Kerry, but the more committed you are to vote, the closer the results. Those deemed "likely voters" are statistically tied (Bush ahead by 1).

This tells us very little about the actual distribution of Kerry vs. Bush supporters. But I think it tells us everything about the need to get out the vote. That means continuing registration drives in states where the deadline hasn't passed.

And it means we need a massive effort on 11/2. Both sides are mobilizing and the best mobilizer wins.



Get off your ass. Take Election Tuesday off (and Monday too if you can). Make it happen. :bounce: