The race is tied: some basic math:

[mdguss]

A four point lead in a poll that has an error rate of =/- 2.9 percent means Kerry could be ahead by a percent and a tenth. The polls are all over the place, and one really can't tell what's going on.

State polls look good for Kerry: he's ahead in Ohio, Pennsylvania, Florda; tied in Nevada; close in Colorado. Has enough of a lead in the mid-atlantic and northeast that he's all right; solidly ahead in Oregon.

Anyway, stop fretting and start knocking on doors; writing letters to the editor; making phone calls; talking to your friends; putting up signs. There's one poll that matters: November 2nd. If we work hard and Get Out the Vote, Kerry will win.

[MercutioATC]

1. The MOE is applied to the TOTAL number, not the individual numbers.

If they were within 2.9% you'd be correct. They're not.

[mdguss]

2. No it says +/-

Margin of error plus or minus 2.9 percent anything within six percent is a tie.

[MercutioATC]

3. Yes, +/- total number...

By your logic, Bush enjoys 51.9%-46.1% while Kerry's at 48.4%-44.4%.

That still puts Bush ahead.

[DaveinMD]

4. again

its one weird day in a sample. This happens with tracking polls all the time. Stop overreacting.