mdguss
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Fri Oct-15-04 09:18 AM
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The race is tied: some basic math: |
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A four point lead in a poll that has an error rate of =/- 2.9 percent means Kerry could be ahead by a percent and a tenth. The polls are all over the place, and one really can't tell what's going on.
State polls look good for Kerry: he's ahead in Ohio, Pennsylvania, Florda; tied in Nevada; close in Colorado. Has enough of a lead in the mid-atlantic and northeast that he's all right; solidly ahead in Oregon.
Anyway, stop fretting and start knocking on doors; writing letters to the editor; making phone calls; talking to your friends; putting up signs. There's one poll that matters: November 2nd. If we work hard and Get Out the Vote, Kerry will win.
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MercutioATC
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Fri Oct-15-04 09:21 AM
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1. The MOE is applied to the TOTAL number, not the individual numbers. |
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If they were within 2.9% you'd be correct. They're not.
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mdguss
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Fri Oct-15-04 09:24 AM
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Margin of error plus or minus 2.9 percent anything within six percent is a tie.
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MercutioATC
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Fri Oct-15-04 09:29 AM
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3. Yes, +/- total number... |
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By your logic, Bush enjoys 51.9%-46.1% while Kerry's at 48.4%-44.4%.
That still puts Bush ahead.
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DaveinMD
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Fri Oct-15-04 09:35 AM
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its one weird day in a sample. This happens with tracking polls all the time. Stop overreacting.
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Wed Apr 17th 2024, 11:21 PM
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