LOOK AT THE 18 NATIONAL POLL AVERAGE, NOT JUST ZOGBY

[TruthIsAll]

The Election Model does not include Zogby yet. It will be updated at 7pm today. There will be very little change in the average Kerry/Bush spread and Kerry's win probability won't decline by much either. It will still be way over 95% for the 18 poll group.

Kerry will be leading in Zogby within a few days. I feel it.

Besides, Kerry is leading in FOX and ABC/WP and CNN.

Who woulda thunk it?

No thrashing, please.

http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/

[liberal N proud]

1. This looks good, but there are so many ways to look at numbers

they still can not and should not be trusted.

[rockymountaindem]

2. kick

[Was_Immer]

3. Where do you see Kerry leading in Fox ABC/WP CNN?

I dont see it anywhere. I see Kerry winning the debate but thats all. Please provide a link

[TruthIsAll]

11. I saw it quickly on one of the cable channels yesterday, can't recall

which.

But I saw it. Maybe they decided not to advertise it.

[sonias]

4. Kick

thanks TruthisAll!

Sonia

[Demi_Babe]

5. keep kicked for morale

[Was_Immer]

6. Please explain how you got to this figure

Election Model Projections

(Base Case Assumption: Kerry wins 60% of the undecided/other vote)


In not attacking you, or flaming you. Just curious.
How do you get 60%.

[TruthIsAll]

12. The challenger has historically received 60-80% of the undecided.

I get that question a lot. Link to my site and go to the favorite links. Look at the UNFUTZ link for the info.

My 60% is conservative. I figure Kerry will get 2/3 or 67%.

[TexasSissy]

7. Zogby interactive of 10/7 has Kerry leading in EVs.

www.zogby.com

I don't know if the interactive is reliable, but still.

[LSK]

8. remember polls lag a week

This is the "bounce" from debate #2 where Bush actually appeared human.

[Was_Immer]

9. i dont think this poll lagged

from the way it was described it is an overnight poll.

check out this

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&e=4&u=/nm/20041015/pl_nm/campaign_poll_friday_dc

[TruthIsAll]

13. Wait till next week, Zogby will have Kerry up by at least 3.

By the end of next week: maybe he'll be up 5.

Of course, that's just a feeling. It could be wishful thinking.

But the point is, Kerry is moving up. And Zogby will catch it soon. The tracking poll only includes one day of post-debate polling. Give it a few days to sink in.

[pelagius]

10. Only one poll matters: NOVEMBER 2...

...and the rest are distractions. We're in a dead heat, folks, and we MUST keep our eyes on the prize.