Stop obsessing over the Zogby poll!

[Dogmudgeon]

It's disappointing to see Bush ahead in any context, but you guys are reading the poll wrong.

The poll put Bush 4 points ahead of Kerry, 48-44, supposedly after Kerry put the Preznit to bed on Wednesday night.

The poll was conducted Tuesday through Thursday.

Here's what you need to know:

The poll of 1,220 likely voters was taken Tuesday through Thursday and has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.9 percentage points. The rolling poll will continue through Nov. 1 -- the day before the election.

A tracking poll combines the results of three consecutive nights of polling, then drops the first night's results each time a new night is added. It allows pollsters to record shifts in voter sentiment as they happen.

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&e=1&u=/nm/20041015/pl_nm/campaign_poll_friday_dc

The results are based on TWO days of pre-debate data and ONE day of post-debate data, assuming Zogby stops polling around 9PM.

You can't depend on the headlines. You must read the details of a poll to be able to use it at all. If Bush is taking a dive, believe me, the news media will do what they can to prop him up. They need as close a race as possible to attract the maximum number of viewers, and thus, advertisers.

Be sure to disengage your heart and put your brain into high gear before evaluating polls. You'll have much less anxiety that way.

Thank you.

--bkl

[TwilightZone]

1. Considering that the MOE is nearly 3%, this poll may not be that

much different from the previous day's poll.

I'm with you - give it another 2-3 days and THEN see if all of this concern is warranted or not.

[dennis4868]

2. When Kerry was leading......

in the Zogby poll nobody had any problems with that poll.....as a matter of fact, the consensus here at DU is that Zogby is the most accurate poll out there these days....plus, one night of polling after the last debate should have shown a shift towards Kerry if so many people thought Kerry won and was more presidential.

It just seems that the more soldiers die in Iraq, the more jobs that are lost, the more kids that are not insured, the more Kerry beats Bush in the debates, the better it is for Bush.

I JUST DONT GET IT!

[DemocratSinceBirth]

4. Really...

I am on the record as saying you need to look at all the poll in their entirety to make a judgement...


Or if you don't like that approach throw out the "best" and "worst" poll for your candidate...


That being said the results of the Zogby Poll is disturbing...

[rockymountaindem]

5. Even good pollsters can be wrong sometimes.

Zogby has been pretty accurate in the past, but not always. Someone here made references to Zogby polls that showed Hillary Clinton losing her Senate race, and that he had Bush and Gore tied in CA in the last election.

So, either Zogby is by and large a good pollster, who is sometimes wrong, or people really do want to reelect Bush despite the fact that he's messed everything up and the news gets worse every day... Which do you think is most likely, especially considering that Kerry is leading in so many other polls?

[DemocratSinceBirth]

7. Actually Most Of The Polls Have It A Tie Or Small Lead For The Asshole

www.pollingreport.com

[dennis4868]

9. I think the problem is.....

that 95% of the people in this country are either loyal repubs and would never vote for a dem even if Hitler was on the repub ticket or they are simply uninformed voters. The media is no help. The media is all about he said vs. she said and they never tell you what the truth is what the real story is. That is a problem for Kerry who is a straight shooter and plays by the rules. Bush on the other hand is a liar and because of the media's lazziness gets away with it time after time.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

10. I Don't Know What The Problem Is...

Of course I believe that people who vote differently from me are wrong...


It's way too early for post-mortems....

[cspiguy]

11. ... the L word.

:wtf:

[tritsofme]

12. I have always said

it is fine to trust Zogby's national numbers, but his state numbers are very questionable and based on what I see as a fundementally flawed methodology.

[Melodybe]

8. I don't pay attention to any of the polls they are all lies.

Zogby included.

I know over 20 people that voted for Bush in 2000 and they are voting Kerry this time. I do NOT know one person who voted for Gore who is now voting for Bush, not one. Also all of the Nader people, including myself, are now voting Kerry, I only know one guy that might vote Nader, and he is slightly crazy and will probably chicken out at the poll.

Good damn pay attention to the people around you and quit looking at all of these bull shit polls.

Zogby is a big pollster, that has made a lot of bull shit predictions, just because he was right about Gore in 2000 doesn't mean shit. He was wrong about Dean, Hilliary Clinton, and he is wrong now.

The polls are lies to condition you into believing what Bushco wants us too and we suck it up.

WAKE UP!!!!

[shivaji]

20. Doncha know the "real" reason? Bush* connects with the people,

Kerry does not. At least that is what I hear 24/7.

[truthpusher]

3. ...and start obsessing over the Rasmussem poll!

I Kid you! :bounce:

[DemocratSinceBirth]

6. Rasmussen Sucks...

He blew 00 by nine percent...


He uses automated callers...


It could be nine year olds responding to the survey...

[Dogmudgeon]

19. But you are right

That said, Rasmussen is a fine pollster.

For me to poop on.

--bkl

[Lex]

13. Agreed. It's just a blip on the screen.

Keep soldiering on.

[GreenPoet64]

14. Excellent Point !!!

[obnoxiousdrunk]

15. This is good news

for Kerry. An Incumbent war time President is just ahead by 4% .
I feel relieved.

[shivaji]

21. Exactly....no shame in losing by only 4% to a war time prez....

It goes to show how divided the country is!

[DaveinMD]

16. Kerry

is not 4 point behind. This was an outlier on one day of the sample. That can happen when you only have 300 people polled per day. This happens all the time in campaign tracking polls.

[Fed Up]

17. Why are the networks and pollsters so bent on national polls?

In the USA, the people are not allowed to vote directly for a president. We go by an electoral college and the only polls should be for the individual states.

If they say the Chimperor is ahead of Kerry in a national poll, that means nothing.

These bogus polls are just to give the networks something to talk about.

[DaveinMD]

18. last election

was an aberration. It is very hard to win an election without winning the popular vote.

[shivaji]

22. are you saying even Zogby is bogus?

In the previous polls he had the most favorable numbers for us.
I am taking this seriously and doubling my efforts to GOTV.

[DaveinMD]

23. this poll is bogus

I've explained this 100 times today. This is a tracking poll. 300 people get polled each day. This is one bad day that is distorting the overall numbers in the poll.

[tritsofme]

24. What is troubling is that he seems to be back in tandum with

Rasmussen who also shows 3 point bush lead.

It will be interesting to see the WaPo/ABC tracking poll that comes out at 4pmCDT

If other polls do not pick up movement toward bush in the next few days then this poll will not have been bogus, it will have been an outlier.