Watching Polls Is Like Monitoring The Ocean (For All You Nail Biters)

[DrFunkenstein]

Polls should never be looked at as immediate indicators of the national mood. You have to think of it as an enormous, slow moving ebb and flow - you can register the basic tidal shifts, but generally looking at the surface (as in "superficial") is not really an indication of how things will play out in the voting booths.

You are much better off getting a general sense of the currents beneath the surface - approval ratings, likeability, trust, key issues, and such. Looking at these markers over even a short period of time is a much better barometer of voter mood.

If you look at the erosion of bush's numbers over the last few weeks, it has been clear for some time that people are not happy with the direction the country is heading. Which means they are looking for a viable change.

Now look at Kerry's numbers as they have moved up, especially after the debates (the time when most voters really start paying attention). If Kerry's numbers were not good, it wouldn't mean too much that Bush's numbers were bad.

But if you put the two underwater currents together, you have an incumbent people are willing to dump, and a challenger who is increasingly seen as viable. Without getting overconfident, I think Kerry has passed the viability threshhold (which hardly means it is time to start patting backs).

When you look at the polls, keep the oceanic metaphor in mind. Oceanography gave Kerry the win in Iowa, despite all the surface polls. I know it is small comfort, but do take some wary comfort in that.

[Melodybe]

1. Thanks DrFunkenstein, I wish more people responded to posts like this

instead of 80 posts about the latest Zobgy or Rassmussen poll, which BTW are complete and utter bullshit.

[rumguy]

2. I agree

nice post!

[ibegurpard]

3. the thing that really irritates me

is that information like that you just posted is CONSTANTLY being put here for people and yet they continue to freak out every time there is a poll fluctuation that doesn't benefit them. People would need to be concerned if the momentum had been consistently downward or there was a huge spread in favor of Bush across the board but that just isn't the case.
I suspect a little of it is coming from deliberate agitators.

[DrFunkenstein]

4. No, We're Just Naturally Anxious People

But seriously, it is suicidal not to watch polls at all - you need to adjust accordingly - but they were never meant to be taken as a moment-to-moment indication of how Americans are feeling on a given day.

[ibegurpard]

5. Oh, absolutely

but people keep taking the day-to-day ones as gospel even they are repeatedly told that it is not a valid indicator of the truth and that irritates me.

[DrFunkenstein]

6. I Like How They Call Unfavorable Polls Unreliable, And Good Ones As Solid

Never fails to entertain me.

[The Magistrate]

7. Well Said, Doctor!

Well said indeed, Sir!

"Republicanism is a character flaw."

"LET'S GO GET THOSE BUSH BASTARDS!"