Arghhhh! - Zogby poll hand wringers, think 48%

[DancingBear]

48%.

Al Gore's ceiling from 2000 is John Kerry's FLOOR for 2004.

Think about it - this is the most energized Dem base we have seen in years. Who out there believes that 4(!) percent of Al Gore voters are going to either a) stay home or b) cross party lines.

View any poll that shows Kerry below 48% with suspicion. Not because it's "rigged" (although it may be), but because it is, on it's face, illogical.

C'mon, now, think about it. Kerry getting 79% support from Dems? Ridiculous. You've been on the streets, you've seen the passion that we're carrying this time. A cardboard box would get Gore numbers, and Kerry ain't no cardboard box.

Take it as a snapshot, because that's all it is. If there are 19 days of sunshine followed by one day of rain, the weatherman says it's only been sunny 66% of the time over the last three days.

Not good enough for me to put away the sunscreen.

[pelagius]

1. Right. The only poll that matters is on NOVEMBER 2...

...and we're looking good. Eyes on the prize!

[kikiek]

2. Seems to me it is based on lower democratic turnout than will occur

[EagleEye]

3. You're not hlping.

Stop these posts.

[Randi_Listener]

5. You're wrong.

It helps.

[Name removed]

6. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[mvd]

4. Right on

:thumbsup:

Even Zobgy can put out a bad poll this far out. Let's see what happens.

[dennis4868]

7. I live in MD.....

and Md will go to Kerry, but I have met many Gore voters who now will vote for Bush. I ask them why and they cannot give me an answer. It's hard to convince these people to vote for Kerry when they will not tell you why they are now supporting Bush.

Can you imagine we have a prez who has fucked up our country and the world so badly, commited crimes and has lied his way all the way though it and people want more of this shit?

[DancingBear]

8. You're kidding, right?

Do you know these folks personally? Can you "verify" that they did indeed vote for Gore, but will now for vote Bush?

I have NEVER met such a person (I live in VA) so to say I'm sceptical would be kind. I'm curious as to whether they are being truthful, or if they're just following orders.

If what you say is correct then your last paragraph rings sadly true.

[LiberalEsto]

9. I live in MD too

and I don't know ANY Democrats supporting B*sh.
But I do know 2000 Nader supporters who are voting Kerry this time.

I have never seen Maryland's usually complacent Democratic so fired up in my 14 years here. We're shipping busload after busload of canvassers to Pennsylvania and West Virginia every weekend. All kinds of people -- people I thought were apolitical-- are putting up Kerry lawn signs. Here in Montgomery County I'd say the ratio of Kerry signs is at least 8 to 1 over B*sh.

[Fed Up]

10. On Nov. 3 the pollsters that were wrong will not admit failure.

They'll still play with their numbers, saying, "Yes, we didn't see this, but of course it's plain to see that the reason for that was blah blah blah...."

They'll make like they would have been right 9 out of 10 times, and due to some unforseeen circumstance, this was just that one time.

Win or lose, thank heaven Nov. 3 is the end of polls.