Why does Zogby's Tracking Poll of Bush 4 point ahead of Kerry?

[PROGRESSIVE1]

http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews886.html

Republican - George W. Bush
48

Democrat - John Kerry
44

10/12/04

[NewYorkerfromMass]

1. Because Bush saved face in the last debate

that's all.

[Goldmund]

2. He did???

I guess all of the people without jobs have gotten excited about getting help to attend their local community colleges... And decided that it's cool that they can't get their flu shots -- the idea of just not getting sick had never occured to them before.

[NewYorkerfromMass]

13. compared to debates 1 and 2 yes

he resembled something closer to a sentient being.

[Goldmund]

22. I disagree.

I think 2 was better than this one.

[PROGRESSIVE1]

4. Saved Face? WTF???

:grr:

Bushler handily LOST that debate. How the HELL can he be ahead?

[cspiguy]

15. to smart people he lost handily

to stupid people he knocked kerry back on his heels (see FNN).

[NewYorkerfromMass]

16. that's what I meant. eom

[KittyWampus]

23. That Is A Pantload As Is Zogby...

[grasswire]

3. there's another thread...

..titled Good News About Zogby that explains it.

Kerry's highest day dropped off the three-day running average. That's why this happened.

[PROGRESSIVE1]

6. Link please? Also, could you give me more detail about what...

you said in this post?

[DaveinMD]

5. how many times to I need to say this

This is part of a tracking poll. Each day, 300 people are in the sample. With such a small daily sample, outlying results can occur and distort the data. This is what happened. In two days when this day is dropped, the poll will be back to normal. I've explained this on the other 5 threads on this topic.

[Fed Up]

9. 300 people is hardly a sample. Why does Zogby take

polling information from people that have signed up? What kind of poll is that? You don't take polls just from people that "sign up". That's like Coca Cola wanting to know how many people like Coke, so they ask all their fans to "sign up" so Coke can poll them, and they can get some idea of how many Americans like it.

[DaveinMD]

18. its a tracking poll

the total poll has 900-1000, but each day has 300. One weird day can screw it up.

[demwing]

17. Dear Dave

Can you repeat that please...?

[nine30]

7. Oversampling of disguised Repukes, no doubt (nt)

[DaveinMD]

8. again

it one outlying day in a three day rolling tracking poll.

[DesEtoiles]

10. I'm glad this has been posted for the 16th time today

[PROGRESSIVE1]

12. O.K, then I'll post it for the 17th time today!

Why does Zogby's Tracking Poll of Bush 4 point ahead of Kerry?

http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews886.html

Republican - George W. Bush
48

Democrat - John Kerry
44

10/12/04







:silly:

[DaveinMD]

14. because

in tracking polls, the daily samples are small. This can lead to one day distorting the data in the poll that gets released. I've explained this above and on many other threads. Please read.

[omnithrope]

20. as opposed to...

... seeing "real" news about Mary Cheney?

*rolls eyes*

[truthpusher]

11. see link

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x1080205

[Bombtrack]

19. I can think of no other reason than the Mary Cheney thing

[pmbryant]

21. Only political junkies are paying attention to that

Very few people are paying attention to that. Ok, if you count political junkies, a fair number are paying attention to it, but those people made up their minds on this election a long time ago.

Here's a poll out today that shows Kerry up by 5.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=102x907313

And, unlike Zogby, whose results are from those mysterious and suspicious "likely voter" models, this Scripps poll is based on all registered voters.

This is not going to be a low turnout election, so I think the RV results will be a good approximation of the final vote. That was the case for most polls in 2000 as well.

--Peter

[lancdem]

24. I don't know

Another poster's analysis of the Rasmussen poll, which also has Bush up more today, shows that Kerry actually has a small lead in yesterday's sample but trailed by 4-5 points in each of the two days prior. We'll have to see what Zogby has in the next couple of days. All it means at this point is that Bush had a better Thursday than he had Monday. It doesn't mean his Thursday was good.

[harpo]

25. my guess is a bunch of freeps joined up