GO AND READ "NEWS FROM THE VOTEMASTER" AT ELECTORAL-VOTE.COM

[BUSHOUT]

It stresses how getting out the vote on election day will likely win or lose this election.

And there's a lot of other news that will make your day.

ie.

The Washington Post has an interview with Charlie Cook, a political guru in the same league as the late Izzy Stone. Insiders pay a lot of attention to Charlie Cook. He warns that the polls are missing the cellphone-only voters, a topic that has been discussed on this site repeatedly. He also says the election may be determined by events in Iraq. If it gets much worse, Bush is in deep trouble. Cook also confirms what I have heard from many, many sources: the undecideds ultimately break at least 2:1 for the challenger. An incumbent president has to be polling 49% to 50% going into the election. A 47% to 47% tie in the polls means the challenger wins. The interview is worth reading.


And he talks about strategic vision.

This guy runs a fair and tight ship.

LINK HERE

I look forward to watching the numbers swing to Kerry dramatically on this site.

[wryter2000]

1. Thanks

I check in there regularly. I'll go read that part.

[Worst Username Ever]

2. I read that earlier today.

It is good to see that he at elast acknowledges the bias with strategic vision. This just means that the number are going to completely flip on election day when the one true poll comes out.

[CatWoman]

3. Bushout

I love ya -- you post such informative threads.

But could you please lay off the caps?? :D

[BUSHOUT]

5. hehehe. Sure, on one condition....

You Bump this DU topic
which will be seen by Sinclair sales people. Let them know what you've done and how you feel.

Then the caps get a rest!

:+

[CatWoman]

8. anytime

:D

:hi:

[RichardRay]

4. Also read the transcript from Charles Cook

that he links to. I don't know Charles Cook, but I subscribed to and read the I.F. Stone Biweekly, and if Mr. Cook is really anything like Izzie Stone he's as good as it's possible to be. The analysis in the transcript is superb.

Washington Post Transcript

Richard Ray - Jackson Hole, WY

[Doosh]

6. the cell phone voters are overrated

Otherwise Dean would've cruised to victory in Iowa.

[lancdem]

10. Cell phone users in Iowa supported Kerry, too

[realcountrymusic]

14. Alas, I fear this is true

We're pinning way too much on this demographic. Most of them are young people, and too many of those are too indifferent to actually get of their asses (or away from their computers) to actually vote. Dean was a darling of the net. But he never turned out boots on the ground at the polls.

The only thing you can do is help get out that younger vote by putting your OWN boots on the ground.

RCM

Best. Anti-Bush. Song. Ever.
http://www.takinmycountryback.com/

[Florida_Geek]

7. He is a Repug and pushes Strategic Vision polls

Just a BS site IMHO. Oh you stupid Dems, see there is no real reason to vote.

I stopped going there. If I wanted a Repug poll I will go to Fox.

[lancdem]

9. He's not a Repug

He supports Kerry.

[Florida_Geek]

11. And so does Karl Rove.

If I wanted "Fair and Balanced" I would go to Fox. The head of that site is just a Repug that does not want Dems to vote.

[realcountrymusic]

13. I don't agree

You can tell when someone is running a disingenuous operation. His written comments consistently show a preference for Kerry and are often critical of Bush. But he has a certain idea of being fair and objective -- rather too mechanical for me, but he uses a strict formula and doesn't adjust no matter what it shows. You can't shoot the messenger. He's not hurting Kerry by showing the actual poll numbers. He's had Kerry over 300 EVs in the past two weeks. He performs a service by amalgamating all the state polls that would be hard to chase down all over the net.

But see the quote from Charles Cook below in this thread for why you should basically ignore state polls that show a close result for either candidate,

On the other side, electionprojection.com is run by a right-wing fundie statistician, and he too is perfectly fair in his electoral college prediction model, though it differs from E-V.com's and is much more mathematically sophisticated.

RCM

Best. Anti-Bush. Song. Ever.
http://www.takinmycountryback.com/

[greekspeak]

16. Read this please

"All in all, the race is much closer than it now appears text . If you add up the strong and weak numbers in the legend, you get Kerry at 198 and Bush at 222. If you then award Kerry New Jersey, which nobody except Strategic Vision thinks is even close, the score is Kerry 213, Bush 222 . The rest are tossups. Many people have asked me to toss out Strategic Vision, but to stay impartial, I don't want to cherry pick among the pollsters ."

Clearly, you have not spent enough time reading the analysis he posts on a daily basis. Don't shoot the messenger, friend. Almost all the polls out there are skewed Shrubward. This guy is doing everything he can with the data he has, to make it fair. Go over to electionprojection.com if you want to listen to some RW ranting.

[realcountrymusic]

12. EXCELLENT quote from Cook in that piece

Charles Cook: "I don't have either candidate anywhere near 270 electoral votes. The only way you can do this is to take state level polling and push states with just one or two point leads into either the red or blue column. Given that a quarter of these polls are complete garbage and another quarter fairly suspect, I think that this exercise is very problematic. Unless someone happens to be privy to the much more sophisticated (and expensive) polling that is being conducted for the two parties, the chances of anyone accurately calling all of the 11 states that we are calling toss ups (Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Minnesota, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Ohio, Pennsylvania, West Virginia and Wisconsin) are pretty slim. If the margin in this race is more than one percentage point, the Electoral College vote won't matter, if it is inside of one percent, then there are too many states that are too close and the state level polling, even the good ones, won't be of much use, much less these three-dollar state polls that are flying over the internet"




Best. Anti-Bush. Song. Ever.
http://www.takinmycountryback.com/

[LittleClarkie]

15. A modern day Izzy Stone?

I need a modern day Izzy Stone in my life. I miss that little guy alot. It made me incredibly mad when Ann Coutier smeared him with those damn half -translated documents someone found.

Izzy is my journalistic hero. I'll have to go and check out Mr. Cook.